Happy Sunday! Last week brought handicapping success in this space, though it would have been more enjoyable without two (!) pushes against the spread. Still, we are riding a relatively hot wave from a handicapping perspective, and it is always fun to be picking games with confidence.
As a reminder, the mantra for this column is to “fade the public” on a weekly basis, and to this point in the 2015 NFL season, it has served us well for the most part. Let’s take a glance at how things stack up from a season-long standpoint.
- Last week: 2-1-2
- Season: 22-16-2
Now, let’s get to business and that means giving the people what they want (copyright: Jalen Rose) with picks against the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders
Kicking things off by picking a favorite isn’t our style, but this line has slipped since opening at 5.5 or 6 in most locations, and everyone seems to be enjoying the Oakland Raiders experience right now. For me, this is a value play on the Steelers, who are still the better team in my estimation, despite the loss of Le’Veon Bell. I’m leaning heavily on the public overvaluing Oakland after an impressive win, but more than that, the presence of Ben Roethlisberger outweighs the loss of Bell and Pittsburgh should be a 6-or-7 point favorite in this spot. Lay those points with glee.
Next: Tennessee-New Orleans and Washington-New England