How far will Ohio State drop when the polls are released?
For the first time since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus, the Ohio State Buckeyes lost a regular season Big Ten game. Not coincidentally, it was against the Michigan State Spartans – the only Big Ten team to defeat Ohio State during the Urban Meyer Era (2013 Big Ten Championship Game). Beyond that, the game ended a 23-game win streak for the Buckeyes.
Thanks to the victory, the Big Ten East now goes through East Lansing. Should the Spartans win next week against Penn State, they’ll punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Should they stumble, the winner of The Game between Ohio State and Michigan will represent the division.
Spinning forward to the immediate future: How will this loss to Michigan State affect the Buckeyes? A defeat of any kind was a sure recipe for the Buckeyes to drop in the polls. However, this loss, which was in The Horseshoe, coming against a team that played two backup quarterbacks further chops down Ohio State’s credentials.
Assuming that all other teams in the top 10 pull out victories on Saturday, Ohio State will likely drop to No. 8 in the nation. Here’s the logic:
Nos. 4-6, Notre Dame, Iowa and Oklahoma State will all climb a notch. Michigan State will rise and probably jump over Oklahoma to become No. 6. The Sooners will begrudgingly stay put at No. 7 as the CFP committee awaits their showdown with Oklahoma State. And Ohio State drops to No. 8.
It’s hard to envision the Buckeyes falling below a Florida Gators team that needed overtime to defeat the Florida Atlantic Owls on Saturday. And no matter how well Baylor plays, their loss from last week is still too fresh in the committee’s collective mind.
So while an undefeated season is off the table, it’s going to now take a little luck for the Buckeyes to have a shot at defending their national championship. They need Penn State to upset Michigan State next week, and to beat Michigan to make the Big Ten Championship Game. From there, they need to defeat an undefeated Iowa club in commanding fashion.
Elsewhere, they need Oklahoma to defeat Oklahoma State, thus completing the Big 12’s cannibalization. A loss by Notre Dame, or a Clemsoning would also be mighty beneficial.
It’s not a long road, with not a lot of time, but all is not lost yet. The door is still ajar, if only slightly.