Uncertain times lie ahead for LSU and Les Miles.
Les Miles has a 110-32 (60-27) record as the head coach of the LSU Tigers football program. He took over for former head coach Nick Saban in 2005 after Saban left Baton Rouge to coach the Miami Dolphins. Miles has won two SEC Championships (2007, 2011) and helped LSU win it all in 2007 as the BCS National Champion.
However, since being ranked the No. 2 team in the country in the initial College Football Playoff standings this season have lost their last three games, all to SEC West rivals (Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss). It marks the first time that LSU had lost three consecutive games this century.
Many feel that Miles is on the hot seat more than any college football coach in the country. Boosters of the LSU football program have reportedly agreed to rally together and pay the $15-20 million buyout of Miles and his entire staff should it come to it. But is that really a wise move?
The main criticisms of Miles revolve around his team’s routinely poor quarterback play and a gradual decline in conference. Both are understandable, as the only decent passers Miles has had in Baton Rouge were Matt Flynn, JaMarcus Russell and Zach Mettenberger. LSU, since losing the 2011 National Championship to division rival Alabama have gone 19-12 under Miles in SEC play, going progressively worse each year [(6-2), (5-3), (4-4), (4-3)].
However, losing premier defensive coordinator John Chavis to rival Texas A&M this past offseason and most of his players as soon as they are draft eligible, it’s understandable for Miles and LSU to have a down year. The SEC West is the most competitive division in the Power 5. Even the best programs have down years.
The problem is that many schools in the SEC look at what Nick Saban is doing at Alabama and are beyond envious of that program, wondering how the 63-year-old head coach continues to have had his program perennially among the nation’s best. Not including Saban’s tenure at Alabama (since 2007), Miles’ LSU Tigers and Mark Richt’s Georgia Bulldogs have been the two most consistently strong programs in the SEC, normally finishing with 10-win seasons and in the AP Top 25 poll.
While LSU may have already made up its mind about pursuing Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, would he even want to leave Tallahassee for Baton Rouge? Fisher usually only has one adversary he needs to beat to get to the ACC Championship game and that is Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers in the ACC Atlantic.
Though Fisher could benefit from coaching at the only Power 5 school in Louisiana, would he even want to deal with the gauntlet that is the SEC West? He would still play Florida annually, but also a handful of teams annually on LSU’s slate rival Clemson’s ferocity. Fisher was also the coach-in-waiting to take over for legend Bobby Bowden. Being the hand-chosen successor to one of the greatest to lord the sidelines matters, too.
What LSU fails to realize is that there is no guarantee of what comes next. The University of Tennessee parted ways with a coach that won them a National Championship in 1998, Philip Fulmer, after the 2008 season. Three coaches later, Tennessee still isn’t nationally relevant, and is a mope in the SEC East. The University of Texas hasn’t done well since forcing out Mack Brown two years ago.
These are all very different and complex scenarios, but they do illustrate new doesn’t always mean better. While LSU could very well convince Fisher to switch state schools in the Power 5, he could easily choose to stay put. The Tigers could end up with the next Gerry DiNardo, the next Curley Hallman, or the next Mike Archer.
LSU doesn’t miss bowl games under Les Miles and is able to recruit, outside of quarterback, at a supremely high level. The Tigers will have sensational sophomore tailback Leonard Fournette for one more year. With the way he ran the football in the first half of the season and a defense that should surely improve, LSU can still contend for championships – both conference and national – under Miles.
If the University’s mind is already made up about Miles’ fate, so be it, but Tennessee and Texas will certainly advocate patience in these trying times at LSU. The only thing guaranteed to come with change is uncertainty, for better or worse. Unless the athletic department can guarantee that a superior replacement is waiting in the wing, then LSU should stick with Les Miles because at least they know what they will get out of him.