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4 college football teams on upset alert in Rivalry Week 13

By Nicholas Ian Allen

Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; The Oklahoma Sooners celebrate after a fumble recovery against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second quarter at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; The Oklahoma Sooners celebrate after a fumble recovery against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second quarter at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 21, 2015; Madison, WI, USA; Northwestern Wildcats running back Justin Jackson (21) rushes with the football during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Spor=
Nov 21, 2015; Madison, WI, USA; Northwestern Wildcats running back Justin Jackson (21) rushes with the football during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Spor= /

Like Iowa, Northwestern is a highly ranked team with an unexpectedly successful record that must travel into enemy territory to face a five-win team looking for bowl eligibility in a rivalry game. It’s a recipe for disaster, which is why the No. 16 Wildcats are one of four college football teams on upset alert this weekend.

The Wildcats have one of the nation’s stingiest defenses and have allowed an average of 16.6 points per game, which ranks third in the Big Ten and ninth in the nation. Opponents have gained 309.7 total yards of offense against Northwestern this year, which ranks fourth in the league and No. 11 overall. Those numbers would be much better if the Wildcats hadn’t fallen apart completely in back-to-back losses to Michigan and Iowa in which the team allowed a combined 78 points and 872 total yards.

Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt has thrown for 2,520 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Lunt has completed a modest 56.8 percent of his passes this season, but is coming off the most accurate performance of the year having completed 34 of 47 attempts (72.3 percent) for 279 yards and two TDs with one interception in a 32-23 loss to Minnesota.

Despite losing for the fourth time in five games, the Illinois offense is headed in the right direction. Running back Josh Ferguson ran for 105 yards against the Golden Gophers, which was his third 100-yard performance of the season and the second in three weeks.

Plus, Illinois has a talented defense capable of holding down a Northwestern offense that has averaged only 20.4 points and 331.0 total yards per game this season – both of which rank dead last in the Big Ten. If Lunt, Ferguson and the Illini offense can exploit the Wildcats just a fraction as well as Michigan and Iowa, Illinois could score enough to win.

Next: Oklahoma

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