Fantasy Football Preview: Thanksgiving Edition
Sep 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) and Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) meet at midfield following the second half at Soldier Field. Green Bay won 31-23. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
The best football holiday of the year has finally come and this year’s games are especially intriguing. Here is your 2015 NFL Thanksgiving Schedule:
12:30 PM: Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
4:30 PM: Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
8:30 PM: Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Whenever there is NFL action, there will always be fantasy implication. Therefore, we are here to help you make some crucial lineup decisions for Thursday’s games. Here are my predictions for Thursday’s games.
As usual, if you need any lineup advice, feel free to leave a comment and I will try to get back to you as soon as possible!
Next: Quarterbacks
Nov 8, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) with Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) after the game. The Panthers defeated the Packers 37-29 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays:
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers:
Stat Prediction: 23-35, 258 Passing Yards 2 Passing Touchdowns 1 Interception, 7 Attempts 37 Rushing Yards 1 Rush Touchdown, 26.02 ESPN Standard Points
In a must-win game for Dallas, Cam and the Panthers will look to shine on National TV and shut down America’s Team. Romo’s return gives Cam a bump in value because the game should be kept close. As a result, I expect the Panthers throw the ball a little more than usual. Devin Funchess’ sudden development also helps because he gives Cam a secondary target in the red zone. I do expect him to play well in this game, but an interception is always possible the way he throws the ball. Lock Cam into your lineups.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers:
Stat Prediction: 24-39, 277 Passing Yards 3 Passing Touchdowns, 4 Attempts 17 Rushing Yards, 24.78 ESPN Standard Points
The Packers need to win this game. The Bears are playing much better football as of late, but Rodgers has dominated the Bears in his career, burning them for 34 touchdowns and completing 69% of his passes. The Bears defense has been better this year, but is very beatable. They rank 20th against all quarterbacks, however, not all quarterbacks are as good as Aaron Rodgers. Earlier this season, Rodgers threw three touchdowns in Chicago and should dominate the Bears in Lambeau.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Stat Prediction: 26-44 309 Passing Yards, 2 Passing Touchdowns, 3 Attempts 8 Rushing Yards, 21.16 ESPN Standard Points
The Panthers defense is strong, but it seems that the Cowboys put up a good fight every Thanksgiving. In his first seven Thanksgiving starts, Romo has a 6-1 record, with 18 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions and an average quarterback rating of 107.27. Let’s just say that he is a great Thanksgiving quarterback. The Cowboys need to win this game to stay in contention for the NFC East, so the Cowboys are going to need good production from Romo.
Player to Avoid:
Mark Sanchez/Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles:
Stat Prediction: 17-38 185 Passing Yards 1 Pass Touchdown 3 Interceptions, 5.4 ESPN Standard Points
Whether Sam Bradford comes back or not, AVOID taking him or his backup Mark Sanchez. The Eagles have been weak this season with either quarterback at the helm. Coming back from a concussion, Bradford likely won’t play as well, if he can suit up. Mark Sanchez is a disaster at the NFL level and should never be started, even in Chip Kelly’s “high-powered offense”.
Next: Running Backs
Nov 22, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (28) carries the ball during the third quarter against the Washington Redskins at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers won 44-16. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays:
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers:
Stat Prediction: 20 Rushing Attempts 87 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing Touchdown, 14.7 ESPN Standard Points
Stewart faces the 28th best run defense in football and he should be able to maintain a steady 4 yards per carry mark all day. The Panthers should be able to drive right down the field on Dallas and that starts with Stewart and the running game. Stewart has had a solid season to date and should be able to continue his consistent production on Thursday.
DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles:
Stat Prediction: 16 Rushing Attempts 98 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing Touchdown, 4 Receptions 47 Receiving Yards, 20.5 ESPN Standard Points
The Lions run defense is not nearly what it’s been in the past. The Eagles offense hasn’t been great this year, but DeMarco Murray has been consistent over the last 6 games. In those six games, he has had 60 or more rushing yards and has scored three touchdowns. The Eagles pass offense has some serious questions marks going into Thursday, so I fully expect them to get DeMarco Murray involved on the ground and through the air. He should see at least 20 touches and has high upside.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers:
Stat Prediction: 24 Rushing Attempts 121 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing Touchdown, 3 Receptions 39 Receiving Yards, 22.0 ESPN Standard Points
Lacy got back on track last week after having a tumultuous start to this season. Many fantasy owners were down on Lacy and had probably given up on him. In fact, I had vowed to not play him for the rest of the season or at least until I could trade him. However, he is too talented of a back to just fall apart. Now that he has earned his job back, Lacy should be able to produce like normal and that starts with a strong game against the rival Bears.
Player To Avoid:
Matt Forte/Jeremy Langford:
Combined Stat Prediction: 28 Rushing Attempts 75 Rushing Yards, 6 Receptions 75 Receiving Yards, 15.0 ESPN Standard Points
Langford has done an admirable job filling in for Matt Forte; however, Forte returns this week and no one knows what kind of work load either back will get. I suspect Forte to get some early down work with Langford taking on third down duties. Together, they should have a decent combined line, but I don’t know which will have the bigger role. In all honesty, I would avoid this situation if you can. I’m forced to play Forte this week and I’m not happy about it. Hopefully, he performs for me, but I really am only playing him because it is my deep league and there aren’t any decent options on the waiver wire.
Next: Wide Receivers
Aug 16, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant (88) celebrates a touchdown in the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays:
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys:
Stat Prediction: 7 Receptions 123 Receiving Yards 2 Receiving Touchdowns, 24.3 ESPN Standard Points
When Romo plays well, Dez plays well. That’s just how Dallas’ offense has worked ever since Dez debuted in 2010. Romo and Dez flashed their chemistry last week, connecting on a 16 yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. I expect them to break out in a potential upset against Carolina. I think Dez burns Panthers’ star cornerback Josh Norman for a 40+ yard touchdown. The other score will come on a fade in the red zone. Bryant is a MUST PLAY for me this week.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions:
Stat Prediction: 9 Receptions 169 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving Touchdown, 22.9 ESPN Standard Points
Calvin hasn’t been great that year, which is expected considering how bad Detroit has been. However, Philadelphia just let Jameis Winston throw for five touchdowns on them and this team is about to unravel. The secondary was supposed to be held down by Byron Maxwell, but that hasn’t been the case. Wide receivers are simply torching Philadelphia’s secondary. Calvin is still Matthew Stafford’s number 1 option and should get a majority of the looks on the outside.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers:
Stat Prediction: 5 Receptions 67 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving Touchdown, 12.7 ESPN Standard Points
Funchess has started to finally put it together. He has scored in two of his past three games and got a career-high 8 targets in week 11. In a game where Cam should throw a good amount, Funchess will come in handy on third down and around the goal line. He is the most physical receiver on the team and should be able to use his height and athleticism to haul in a touchdown or two.
Player To Avoid:
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles:
Stat Prediction: 4 Receptions 45 Receiving yards, 4.5 ESPN Standard Points
The Eagles pass offense is a dumpster fire. I spoke earlier about the Eagles’ inconsistent quarterback play, and the same applies with their wide receivers. Matthews has had a disappointing season. He’s only reached 100 yards twice and has only scored two touchdowns. If you are stuck playing Matthews as a number two wide receiver, I hope you have good running backs and/or Gronk. There are better plays than Matthews this week.
Next: Tight Ends
Nov 2, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen (88) makes a reception for a touchdown as he is defended by Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) during the second half of the game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays:
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers:
Stat Prediction: 5 Receptions 78 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving Touchdown, 13.8 ESPN Standard Points
Olsen is by far the best tight end on this slate of games. The ninth year pro has been the Panthers’s most important weapon over the middle of the field. He hasn’t scored as much as we would have liked, but, given how weak the position is, we will take his normal production. Carolina should score at least three touchdowns in this game and Olsen is likely to be right in the middle of it all.
Martellus Bennett/Zach Miller, Chicago Bears:
Stat Prediction: 7 Receptions 86 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving Touchdown, 14.6 ESPN Standard Points
The Packers rank 26th in fantasy against the tight end and are a good team to expose. They’ve given up at least 9 fantasy points to tight ends in five consecutive games. With Forte and Jeffery still a bit banged up, Cutler should give plenty of looks to either Bennett or Miller. If Bennett doesn’t play due to a rib injury, then Miller becomes a good option to start. If both are active, I would avoid Miller because there are only so many targets to go around. Tight end is a tough position, so make sure you lock in guys who will see a good number of targets like Miller of Bennett this week.
Player To Avoid:
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions:
Stat Prediction: 3 Receptions 35 Receiving Yards, 3.5 ESPN Standard Points
Ebron has been better in his sophomore season, but inconsistency has been a problem as of late. Against Oakland, one of the worst teams against tight ends, had a solid zero catches for zero yards. Along with his performances, his targets have fluctuated. In last week’s clunker, Ebron received only two targets. The inconsistency mirrors that of Jermaine Gresham a few year’s ago in Cincinnati. He had such a promising future, but didn’t perform on a week-to-week basis. I would avoid Ebron this week, especially against the Eagles’ second best defense against the position.