FanDuel College Football Picks For Early December 5
By Mike Marteny
Nov 21, 2015; Hattiesburg, MS, USA; The Southern Miss Golden Eagles mascot celebrates after defeating the Old Dominion Monarchs 56-31 at M.M. Roberts Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
This is a light slate across the college football universe this weekend, but it isn’t all just conference championship games. There are several more to choose from, including some players from little known schools who usually aren’t in FanDuel tournaments. There can be some real gems in those situations. Who are the best? Let’s go digging!
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For the first time in a long time, I didn’t place with any of my FanDuel lineups last weekend. I did win $12 on a DraftKings one where you could more easily offset a poor performance from one player. It’s harder to do that on FanDuel.
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To finish in the money, you need to choose the best high priced players, and the best cheap options to let you afford some high priced players. I will give you some of each option at each position and let you choose from there.
Here are my FanDuel College Football Picks for early December 5:
Next: Who Will Put Up Big Numbers At QB?
Sep 5, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten (9) throws a pass against the Southern California Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterback:
Best Bets:
Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State ($9,100): With so many conference championship games pitting two good teams against one another, you are probably better off picking a player that isn’t involved in one of those games. Knighten gets to take on a Texas State defense that is in the bottom 20 against both the run and the pass. Knighten can do both well. I feel more comfortable starting him then Greg Ward against Temple or Brandon Doughty against Houston.
Nick Mullens, Southern Mississippi ($7,800): Western Kentucky’s defense has improved during the conference season, but they are still allowing 238.6 passing yards per game. Mullens has not had under that total in any game this year, and he has only been under 300 twice (UTEP and Charlotte). Those were in games that he wasn’t needed to throw the ball in. He wont get you points running the ball like Ward or Knighten will, but he is a really good passer in what promises to be a shootout with the Hilltoppers.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky ($9,500): This guy threw for 325 yards on LSU, so playing a good Southern Miss defense won’t turn me away. Just the fact that there are better options at cheaper prices has me ranking Doughty a little lower, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against him still putting up really good numbers against the Eagles. Will he be the highest scoring quarterback? Probably not, but he will be close.
Greg Ward, Houston ($9,400): Ward lit up a strong Navy defense last week, so I think his ankle is fine. His running ability puts him as a strong bet in any game since his floor is so much higher, but I doubt he throws for 300 against Temple. That limits his upside some.
Dark Horses:
Tyler Jones, Texas State ($6,900): Arkansas State is not great in pass defense either. The Red Wolves have given up 254.2 passing yards per game, and Jones has topped that mark in three of the last four games. Jones could be a sneaky play in what could be a high scoring game. He is a really strong play as your second QB in DraftKings.
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern ($6,200): Ellison has not attempted more than 10 passes in a game since October 22nd. He isn’t the kind of player that can chuck it around a lot. What he is is a very good orchestrator of a well run option attack. This means that he does most of his damage on the ground. He is more running back than quarterback, and paying this price for a player that runs 12-18 times a game could be fruitful for you. Especially against a Georgia State defense that gives up 184 yards per game on the ground.
My pick: Mullens
Next: Who Are The Best RB's?
Oct 10, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; New Mexico State Aggies running back Larry Rose III (3) carries the ball against the Mississippi Rebels during the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mississippi Rebels beats New Mexico State Aggies 52-3. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Running Back:
Best Bets:
Matt Breida, Georgia Southern ($7,700): Did I mention that Georgia State is 80th in the country in run defense? Breida ran roughshod over South Alabama last week. He could do the same to Georgia State. Want another reason to play him? Breida has five touchdowns in his last four games, and five multi-touchdown games on the season.
Larry Rose, New Mexico State ($7,400): Rose makes the Aggies go. He has five straight games of more than 100 rushing yards, and has topped 200 yards three times this season. He is a workhorse back who is also targeted out of the backfield going up against a lousy Monroe defense. If you are looking for lightning in a bottle, this could be it!
Honorable Mention:
Derrick Henry, Alabama ($10,000): It will be very hard for Henry to reach value against Florida’s seventh ranked run defense, but how can you bet against a guy that has ran for more than 200 yards in four of his last five games? Still not impressed? Those five games were against Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Tennessee fared the best against Henry, holding him to 143 yards. He still has a great chance to rack up solid points against Florida.
Chris Warren, Texas ($8,200): How many of you took a chance on Warren last week with Donta Foreman out and Jonathan Gray limited? If you did, you won a nice chunk of change. Warren scored 53.8 FanDuel points against Texas Tech. Baylor’s run defense is somewhat better than Texas Tech’s, but not a lot. Warren could have another huge game with Foreman out again and Gray likely playing second fiddle to Warren.
Dark Horses:
Devin Chafin, Baylor ($6,300): There is a very good chance that Shock Linwood will rest his sore knee. Baylor no longer has a chance at the Big 12(10) title, so they will likely not push Linwood, whose knee was noticeably sore in the loss to TCU. I would expect the Bears to ride Chafin against a Texas defense that has given up 203 rushing yards per game. He has scored six touchdowns in the last three games. I wouldn’t rule out another two touchdown performance from Chafin.
Ito Smith, Southern Mississippi ($6,200): Smith has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games. He has also scored four touchdowns in his last two games. He doesn’t get a high volume of touches like most of the other backs on this list, but he is usually in the low 20’s and can catch the ball out of the backfield as well.
My picks: Rose and Chafin
Next: Should You Play A Baylor Receiver?
Nov 14, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Southern Miss Golden Eagles wide receiver Michael Thomas (88) scores a touchdown agains the Rice Owls in the second quarter at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Wide Receiver:
Best Bets:
Tres Houston, Arkansas State ($7,200): Houston is the leading receiver for the Red Wolves, hauling in ten passes for 249 yards and four touchdowns in just his last two games. He also has six touchdowns in his last four games. Houston has a pretty high floor, and going against a horrible Texas State defense, he should easily be in the 20’s for FanDuel points. He has 53.9 total in his last two games.
Michael Thomas, Southern Mississippi ($6,800): Thomas has at least 15 FanDuel points in every game since September 19th. He is the go-to receiver for Mullens in the passing game. He has had no less than four catches or 80 yards in that span, and has scored at least one touchdown in all of those games except against Nebraska on September 26th. He has scored 11 touchdowns since October 3rd. Play him with confidence.
Honorable Mention:
Penny Hart, Georgia State ($6,100): Hart has scored a touchdown in three straight games, and has tallied at least five catches in every game except for the opener. The true freshman is the focal point of the passing game for the Panthers. How Georgia State elects to deal with Georgia Southern will decide just how productive Hart is, but I tend to think that the Panthers will try to throw to keep it close.
Jamal Robinson, Lousiana-Lafayette ($5,800): Lafayette has been playing catch up a lot lately, which has favored the passing game in general and Robinson in particular. Robinson has 29 catches for 437 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games. The Cajuns likely won’t be playing from behind as much against Troy, but I would bet that they still look towards Robinson a lot to help them get the win.
Dark Horses:
Calvin Ridley, Alabama ($4,900): The Tide will have problems moving the ball against Florida, but Ridley can be a game-changer if Jake Coker can get him the ball. Just the fact that he is so cheap makes it worth taking a flier on him. He has had at least nine FanDuel points in every game since September. He is a low risk, high reward option
KD Cannon, Baylor ($4,500): Cannon’s price being this low makes me feel like a criminal for playing him. It’s like stealing against a porous Texas defense. The Baylor offense was a disaster in the deluge last weekend, but Cannon still caught three of Baylor’s seven completions. It has been Cannon, not Corey Coleman, that third string quarterback Chris Johnson has looked for. Probably because of all of the double coverage Coleman sees. That just leaves more opportunities for Cannon. You have to play him at this price!
My picks: Houston, Thomas, and Cannon
Next: Can You Save Money At TE?
Nov 27, 2015; Bowling Green, KY, USA; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tight end Tyler Higbee (82) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against Marshall Thundering Herd at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports
Tight End:
Best Bet:
Tyler Higbee, Western Kentucky ($4,700): Higbee was posting a huge season before he got hurt on the first drive against North Texas on October 15th. Higbee returned to the fold last week and hauled in six passes and scoring twice in the win over Marshall. Higbee is the most reliable receiver in a loaded offense, and is a great bargain for this price since he will outscore many receivers that cost more than him.
Honorable Mention:
Keith Rucker, Georgia State ($4,300): Rucker caught a career high ten passes against Troy last week. While I wouldn’t expect that kind of output against a team that controls the ball the way that Georgia Southern does, Rucker will still see a lot of targets at the Panthers try to keep pace.
Dark Horse:
Jake McGee, Florida ($3,000): Treon Harris has looked McGee’s way a lot over the last five games. McGee has 20 catches and three touchdowns in that span. McGee is more of a true tight end than an athletic one, so he won’t rack up the yards that some do, but he is a low risk option. The fact that Florida might be kept out of the end zone again hampers his value some though.
My pick: Higbee
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Stay tuned for more FanDuel picks and all of the college football games picked against the spread!