College Football Picks Against The Spread For Week 14

Here are all of the picks against the spread for Conference Championship Week!

There are only 15 total games this week, with eight of them being conference championship games. This is the lightest slate so far this year. The season is sadly drawing to a close, but there are still some more interesting picks to make. And we still have Bowl Season!

More from College Football Odds

In case you don’t know what I do here, I pick every college football game of the season. Against the spread. Trust me, it’s not as easy as it sounds! I take the average of the odds from all of the Vegas casinos. I then round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football (soccer).

I had another good week last week, and I have assured myself at least a 50% success rate. I can be happy with that, but I still want to reach my goal of 55%. I would need to be nearly flawless from here on out, and that isn’t going to happen. If I split the difference at 52.5%, I will still consider this year a success. Also, the points system has been a better measure of success. I am in the black in that by a pretty good margin, so weighing these by confidence has worked out well.

In case you missed how the point scale works, here is a brief rundown:

5. A lock. I am comfortable making a sizable wager on this game.

4. Very confident. Not quite a lock, but I am comfortable making a decent sized wager on it.

3. Middle of the road. Good enough that I would make a small wager on it.

2. Could go either way. So much so that I wouldn’t bet on it.

1. Stay away from these.

Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.

Here are my college football picks against the spread for week 14:

Bowling Green(-13.5) vs. Northern Illinois at Detroit(3): This line has jumped over a touchdown from where it opened. That’s okay, I am still comfortable taking the Falcons for less than two touchdowns. Give me BGSU.

(22)Temple at (19)Houston(-5.5)(3): This line is still all over the place. It is as high as 7.5 in places, so you know it is down at 4 in some others. I can see why. Temple’s defense has been pretty good all year except for a hiccup against SMU. That said, Houston’s only loss was to a strong defensive team in Connecticut. Greg Ward wasn’t at 100% in that game. Nowhere near it. He is now. Give me Houston.

Texas at (12)Baylor(-20.5)(3): It’s easy to give up on Baylor after last week, but that was an exception. The whole game was played in a torrential downpour. Only the weather can slow Baylor down. Well, that and a third string quarterback. Give me Texas. The fact that Baylor will likely rest Shock Linwood for much of the game plays into my pick as well.

Southern Mississippi at Western Kentucky(-7.5)(2): This is a tough one to pick since both teams are playing very well right now. They both have offenses capable of breaking a scoreboard. I tend to think this stays a one score game. I will take Southern Miss.

Georgia State at Georgia Southern(-21.5)(3): The Eagles are the kings of the Sun Belt. Give me Georgia Southern. They put on an absolute clinic on how to run an option.

Texas State at Arkansas State(-25.5)(4): Texas State’s defense is statistically one of the worst in the nation, and it is even worse on the road. Arkansas State has a really good offense (well, for the Sun Belt anyway) and will be able to exploit the Bobcats. Give me Arkansas State.

New Mexico State(-1.5) at Louisiana-Monroe(4): Two words: Larry Rose. Aggies win this easily!

(18)Florida vs. (2)Alabama(-17.5)(4): I wonder where this line would be if Will Grier were still under center for the Gators. As it stands now, this game is going to be a blowout. Florida’s defense is really good, but I doubt they keep Bama under 20. This might be 20-0. Give me Alabama.

West Virginia(-5.5) at Kansas State(3): Kansas State is a hard team to read. They need a win to make it to a bowl game, but this is a tough matchup. The Mountaineers have all kinds of weapons on offense and a decent defense. I have to go with WVU.

Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette(-1.5)(1): Caution: watching this game could cause bleeding of the eyeballs. Lafayette isn’t this bad, are they? I still don’t think so. Give me the Cajuns.

Appalachian State at South Alabama(-17.5)(3): Could the Mountaineers really win ten games in their second year of FBS football? Yes they can! Will they cover? Probably. Give me Appalachian State.

Air Force at San Diego State(-6.5)(3): The Aztecs are going to run even more with Maxwell Smith out. Air Force has a good run defense, but SDSU’s is even better. I tend to think that both teams will have problems moving the ball, but the Aztecs have more horses in the stable and will eventually wear the Falcons out. Give me the Aztecs.

(20)USC vs. (7)Stanford(-4.5) at Santa Clara(4): This is practically a home game for the Cardinal, as they could walk to the stadium if they wanted to. The team that Stanford really had problems with, Oregon, had good speed. USC has speed, but oftentimes the team looks out of sorts. Some of that comes from the inconsistency of Cody Kessler. Some of that comes from the shuffling of running backs. At any rate, Stanford is far and away the better team, and with some help, they still have an outside shot at the playoffs. Give me the Cardinal.

(5)Michigan State(-3.5) vs. (4)Iowa at Indianapolis(3): Iowa is about as tough as they come. They don’t do any one thing well, but they do win. They haven’t lost since January 2nd. The transfer of Jake Rudock was addition by subtraction. The Hawkeyes are among the best teams in the country in turnover ratio. They just don’t beat themselves. They won’t need to here. Michigan State is good enough to beat them outright. Give me the Spartans. And while we’re at it, take the under on 51. This is going to be a low scoring game.

(10)North Carolina vs. (1)Clemson(-4.5) at Charlotte(3): Clemson really has not played a good game since their win over Florida State. They have been sloppy in every game since then. Part of the problem has been Wayne Gallman being a little banged up, but there seems to be something else here. Is the pressure getting to them? At any rate, North Carolina presents a bad matchup for Clemson. Marquise Williams is a freakish athlete that the Clemson defense hasn’t had to face that at the QB position except in practice. I have my doubts that Clemson wins this game. If they do, it won’t be by more than three. For the record, I would like Clemson to win just so there isn’t another reason for people to call for the expansion of the playoffs. Are you people nuts? This is the playoffs! It has been for nearly a month now! What can be better than having playoffs during the regular season?

Next: Late FanDuel Lineups For December 5

Of the 15 games this week, I have one one pointer, one two pointer, nine three pointers, and four four pointers. There isn’t anything that I am confident enough in to wager five points. That leaves me a total of 46 possible points. Even in a smaller week, it would be really hard to get them all right. I will be happy sweeping my four pointers like I did last week. Honestly, anything better than 9-6 or +5 points is good enough for me.

It has been another fun college football season, but they are still playing, so I am as well! Stay tuned for Bowl Mania picks, all of the bowls picked against the spread, and all of the FanDuel picks from bowl season, along with our NBA mailbag, pro FanDuel picks, and waiver advice for the NBA and NFL!