Who won the Shelby Miller trade?
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves are heading in two different directions, and the Shelby Miller trade proves that.
It’s official, the Arizona Diamondbacks are officially going for it in 2016 after acquiring Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for three prospects.
Starting pitching is the most premium, valued asset in baseball. MLB teams have three ways of acquiring it: drafting and developing, free agent signings, or trades. Usually when a team doesn’t draft or develop it, the price to pay to get it through the other two methods is usually a pricey one.
That’s exactly the situation presented here with the Diamondbacks and Braves. The Braves finished last season 67-95, and realized that the direction of the team didn’t see winning seasons in their immediate future. As a result, the Braves have purged their organization by trading their best players — including former shortstop Adrelton Simmons to the Angels in November — as a way to jump start the rebuilding the process.
The Diamondbacks surprisingly finished last season 79-83, and did it with an even more surprising middle-of-the-pack finish in MLB Team ERA (16th). The team finished 16th despite no game-breaking talent at the top of the rotation — their “ace” Daniel Hudson finished with a 3.86 ERA. Arizona changed that by signing Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million contract and acquiring Miller.
There were rumors that the Braves coveted breakout outfielder A.J. Pollock in any Miller trade. Pollock was not traded, but despite not being traded, the haul that the Braves received was surprisingly much better than expected, which even shocked MLB writers like Yahoo’s Jeff Passan:
From looks of it, Braves got the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, a near-ready MLB starter and solid MLB OF for one year of Jason Heyward.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2015
Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair and Ender Inciarte is the core of the sort of deal I was expecting to see for Jose Fernandez, not Shelby Miller.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2015
Swanson was the first-overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, and projects as an everyday, potential multiple time All-Star at shortstop. In Inciarte’s second season, he finished with a .301 batting average. Blair is a 6-foot-5 arm that has a chance to contribute for the Braves starting pitching staff soon. He won the Diamondbacks’ 2014 Minor League Player of the Year and 2015 Organizational Pitcher of the Year.
For now? There is no clear winner or loser in the trade. Miller could flame out, like many big-time acquisitions have, and the Braves prospects could also get to the Majors and end up stalling in their development. Both teams got EXACTLY what they needed. The Diamondbacks want to win now, and the Braves want to collect as much young talent as they can.
The verdict: this is a win-win move for both teams, but has the potential to turn into a steal for the Braves three years down the line.