Week 14: NFL Sleeper Plays
Nov 29, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls (34) picks up a first down during the first quarter in a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Who are the sleeper plays for week 14 in the NFL?
This article will predict this week’s sneakiest picks for week 14. This season, like most, has been crazy to predict. How many readers could guess that Thomas Rawls, Charcandrick West, and Buck Allen would be premium number 1 running back plays this late in the season? Well, not me.
During draft season, we would have said that nearly every week Jamaal Charles, Le’veon Bell and Eddie Lacy would be at the top of the leaderboards. However, a lot has changed and it is my job to pick out winning plays to help you move on in the postseason. Here are my picks for this weeks best performers based on statistical research, matchups, and volume.
Next: Amazin' Jameis?
Dec 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) throws the game winning touchdown pass during the second half against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta 23-19. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Who would have thought that Jameis Winston would be my top player of week 14 after his dismal two interception debut, a game where his team lost to the now 3-9 Tennessee Titans. Fast forward to week 14, where Jameis finds himself in a big game against New Orleans as the Bucs look to make a push in the NFC Wild Card race.
Jameis has improved significantly throughout the year. Over his last three games, he has a 7:2 TD to INT ratio. The improvement can also be seen in his ability to scramble. At Florida State, Winston was more of a pocket passer, but at the pro level, his athletic ability has been a big factor. He has run for five scores on the ground. Overall, he is averaging about two total touchdowns per game, which will help get the job done as long as he can eliminate turnovers.
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A big part of Jameis’ improvement has been his increased chemistry with Mike Evans. Evans was held out of the first two games because of a hamstring issue. At the start of the season, he struggled to find a rapport with Jameis. With Vincent Jackson out, he needed to step up and produce in large quantities. Since week 7, Evans has received an average of 11 targets per game and reached over 125 yards in three of those games.
The matchup for Jameis is juicy this week as the Bucs host New Orleans. The Saints have allowed more passing touchdowns than anyone else in the league. In fact, they have allowed nearly three per game! Eli Manning has struggled this year and he ripped apart New Orleans for 350 yards and 6 touchdowns. People flocked to try and grab Manning that week and he has been relatively mediocre since. Imagine what a rising star like Jameis could do to this defense in a must-win game. Start him in your lineups this week.
Next: Draughn on Shaun
Dec 6, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Shaun Draughn (24) runs past Chicago Bears outside linebacker Sam Acho (49) during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
I could have sworn that I saw another article a couple months ago saying that Shaun Draughn was giving up on his NFL career. Two months later, he is the featured back for the Niners. He has taken advantage of his opportunity by accumulating at least 75 yards in four consecutive starts. He has also played a role out of the backfield with 22 catches in those four games. This week he will take on the Browns in what should be deemed “The Pathetic Bowl”. Both teams will be competing for a chance at the first pick of the 2016 NFL draft.
Draughn hasn’t been a monster between the tackles this season; in fact, he is only averaging 3.3 YPC. Where he has contributed is in a third down type role. He has been so valuable for Blaine Gabbert as a check down, making him a great play in PPR formats because of his tendency to make 4 to 5 catches per game. He has outplayed his value in each of his last three starts on DraftKings and it has made him a viable RB2 or flex threat.
A big factor in this game is revenge. Draughn was picked up by Cleveland in December as a depth running back and was released earlier this year. Although he only played two game, he has to wonder why he wasn’t given the chance to compete for a role in the league’s worst rushing attack. I think that he will have that on his mind on Sunday and have a career day.
The Niners will travel to Cleveland to take on the Brown’s 31st overall rush defense that allows over 135 rush yards per game. The Browns have been terrible all season long and allowed 4.6 yards on the ground just last week against the Bengals. The Bengals have a good running committee, but in San Francisco, Draughn gets a majority of the looks and should see at least twenty touches.
Next: Sammy Sprinkler
Nov 8, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins (14) during the game against the Miami Dolphins at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Sammy Watkins has been wildly inconsistent this year. Part of that is due to the inconsistent play at quarterback this season. Everyone knows what kind of talent he has and what he has capable of. One of the most valuable things to look at for fantasy purposes is how they have done in the past few games. In each of the last two games, he has caught passes of 45 yards or more. Tyrod Taylor has made a point to force the ball down the field recently and that has definitely benefitted Watkins.
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Watkins came out of Clemson with the ability to pick a part defenses with an elite combination of size, skill and speed. Many analysts criticized the Bills decision to trade up for Watkins and they may be right. The Bills haven’t exactly taken advantage of his skills. In almost two seasons, he has only scored nine times, including three in his last two games.
The Bills will fly down to Philly this weekend and face a struggling Eagles’ secondary. The Eagles played well last week, but that’s partly due to Tom Brady’s disconnection with his new receivers. Overall, they have been one of the worst secondaries. Just a few weeks ago, on Thanksgiving, they let the Lions throw all over them. Stafford threw for 337 passing yards and five touchdowns. As the primary target of the Bills pass attack, he should have plenty of opportunities to torch Byron Maxwell this week.
Watkins is generally a WR2 or Flex play, but I’d consider him a good bet to be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver this weekend.
Next: Walk(er)ing on Sunshine
Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker (82) celebrates after a first down during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Delanie Walker leads all tight ends in receptions by five with 67 receptions. He has found a strong connection with quarterback Marcus Mariota. In four of his past five games, he has gained at least 90 yards.
Walker was a combination of a fullback/backup tight end in San Francisco and many doubted his ability to be an every down receiving tight end for a new team. Tennessee showed extreme confidence in his receiving ability when they flowered him with a 4 year, 17.5 million dollar deal in the offseason. That has turned out to be a good deal for the Titans and fantasy owners alike.
Next: Which Handcuffs Can You Add?
Good luck out there in whatever format you play!