Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez: 2016 Fantasy Projections

Jose Fernandez is undoubtedly the ace of the Miami Marlins rotation. One year removed from Tommy John surgery, here is what to expect from the 23-year-old in 2016.

After a busy week of moves during the Winter Meetings, things seemed to have quieted down. There were a lot of big signings and trades, but one big piece of news is that the Miami Marlins kept their ace Jose Fernandez. While the asking price might have been a little high, the Marlins now the value of Fernandez. Here is what to expect from Fernandez in 2016 with Miami. 

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Jose Fernandez entered the league in 2013 as a highly touted 20-year-old prospect. He wasn’t even old enough to drink. With injuries to other members of the rotation, he began the season on the 25-man roster. In his first start, he went five innings and gave up one run on three hits and one walk while striking out eight. He earned his first win on May 4 after seven shutout innings.

At the end of his first season, he went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 187 strikeouts. He finished third in the National League Cy Young voting and won NL Rookie of the Year.

The 2014 season looked promising, but it ended very abruptly. After just eight starts, he was placed on the 15-day DL. He was later diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. He would miss the rest of the season and returned to the rotation on July 2 of the 2015 season.

In 11 starts this season, he went 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 79 strikeouts.

Entering the offseason, there were rumors going around that the Marlins were shopping Jose Fernandez. The Marlins made the price tag very high, which made a trade highly unlikely. Miami was asking for  Julio Urias, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager in addition to another pair of players from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Looking at what the Arizona Diamondbacks had to give up for Shelby Miller, it would have debilitated any other team of prospects and young players.

Next: Dee Gordon: Top Second Baseman in 2016?

As of now, Jose Fernandez is still a member of the Marlins. Pitching in a weak-hitting division, three of the teams finished in the bottom half in batting average, Fernandez should have no problem pitching at an elite level in 2016. When he’s on, he’s on. However, with the risk of injury, I cannot draft him as a top-10, or even top-20 starting pitcher.

If you can wait and draft him in the middle of the draft, you’ll be getting great value. Jose Fernandez’s upside is huge and any fantasy owner should be lucky to have him.

Projections: 13-7, 2.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 175 strikeouts

Draft: Round 13