Chicago Cubs Jon Lester: Still a Top 20 Pitcher in 2016?

The Chicago Cubs have a nucleus of young players with some veteran presence. One veteran that is consistent year in and year out is Jon Lester.

The Chicago Cubs return to relevance began last winter, before the rise of Jake Arrieta and debut of rookie sensations Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant. It began with the signing of veteran pitcher Jon Lester. The team announced the deal last December for six years and $155 million with a seventh-year option. This was the first move the Cubs made in the Joe Maddon era, and it was a big one. He had a good first season with the team and will improve in 2016. 

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Lester spent eight and a half seasons with the Boston Red Sox. He finished with a 3.64 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 110-63 record. In the second half of the 2014 season with the Oakland Athletics, he went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. The 2014 season was arguably Lester’s best season, 2.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 219.2 innings (career high).

The 2015 season did not start strong for Jon Lester. In four April starts, he had a 6.23 ERA, 24 strikeouts and five walks. May brought better success, dropping his ERA to 3.30 while winning four of his six starts. In 32 starts, he went 11-12 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.

Jon Lester was drafted in the fifth round as the 11th starting pitcher. He was taken ahead of Arrieta, Jacob deGrom and many others. While those names became some of the best fantasy pitchers by the end of the season, Lester wasn’t too bad himself. He finished 18th among pitchers on the Player Rater.

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While he is listed as the No. 1 pitcher on the depth chart, I think Jon Lester is the No. 2 guy in the rotation. Arrieta had his breakout season and will be a dominant pitcher for years to come. The “move” down the depth chart will release some of the pressure Lester had as the No. 1 pitcher in Boston. As a result, I think Lester will be able to perform as a top-20 pitcher just like he did in 2015.

Projections: 13-9, 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 210 strikeouts

Draft: Round 6