Early Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview

The baseball season has been over for about a month and a half now and this offseason has been about as crazy as usual. As a savvy fantasy baseball owner, you will have to pay attention to these moves in order to make sure you are ready to make projections and create rankings for your drafts.

Over the last month, we have seen star pitchers like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lackey and Shelby Miller exchange their caps for shiny, new ones. These pitchers are difference makers that change the whole dynamic of a franchise. 

The Diamondbacks are definitely one of the biggest winners of the offseason. Arizona had one of the most powerful offenses last season, ranking eighth in the league in runs. Paul Goldschmidt was a key component to the D-Backs offense as he had another MVP type season. In addition, the Diamondbacks saw remarkable improvement from outfielders David Peralta and A.J. Pollock. It’s rare that a team that is so potent on offense has such a low run differential. They only scored seven more runs than they allowed which shows why they finished four games under .500.

General Manager Dave Stewart made it a point to improve the Diamondbacks starting pitching rotation. Early in the offseason, they swooped in and stole Zack Greinke from the division rival Dodgers by showering him with 206.5 million dollars. The Diamondbacks’ excess of cheap, young talent allowed them to make this crazy contract offer. Stewart decided to throw all of his money into the right when he decided to give up a huge haul for Shelby Miller. Stewart sent solid leadoff man Ender Inciarte and 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson with a couple of other minor pieces to Atlanta in an effort to start a win-now campaign. These moves have pushed the Diamondbacks to the top of the NL West. Now we just have to see if they will perform to their potential.

The offseason always brings crazy changes and this one is no exception. This article will be a fantasy baseball pitching preview that will predict which pitchers will be studs or duds based on the moves made around them in the offseason.

Next: Studs

Which pitchers are going to be studs next year?

Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets: Many believed that Matt Harvey was going to be the Mets ace; however, in 2014 with Harvey injured, DeGrom won Rookie of the Year and was a huge fan favorite. He continued his momentum last season with a 2.54 ERA and a 14-8 record. Although the Mets may lose some punch on offense without Murphy, they will improve defensively. Murphy’s career Defensive Wins Above Replacement is a horrific -2.6. The Mets will replace him with Neil Walker who is an average fielder at best, but his still a huge improvement from Murphy. The Mets were below average in errors last season and any improvement would help out DeGrom this year.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees: Pineda had some strong moments last season, including a sixteen strikeout performance against the Orioles on Mother’s Day. Pineda was a highly touted prospect in Seattle and has started to come into his own over the last few years. Due to injuries, he has not been able to become an ace; however, next season will be his time to shine. Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino are slotted to pitch at the top of the rotation, which takes away some pressure from Pineda. The Yankees offseason moves will also help Pineda’s fantasy outlook. The Yankees gave up promising 5th starter and depth reliever Adam Warren for former all-star Starlin Castro who will help fill the whole at second base that has lacked talent since Robinson Cano moved out west with the Mariners. With Warren gone, Pineda is likely to pitch a lot more innings, as the Yankees lack depth behind him. If his development continue, he will be one of the best third starters in all of baseball.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw followed a freaky superhuman season in 2014 with another solid campaign in 2015. His ERA increased to 2.13 from an unheard of 1.77. He also didn’t win as many games as he went 16-7 in comparison of his 21-3 2014 campaign. Nonetheless, he is still unquestionably one of the top pitchers in all of baseball and has the potential to make the Hall of Fame with 3 NL Cy Young Awards and 1 NL MVP award. From a fantasy perspective, I would look at his “down” season as a perfect opportunity on a pitcher that can singlehandedly win you a championship (like my team in 2014). Zack Greinke was the Dodgers’ ace last season and now that he’s in Arizona, Kershaw will slide comfortably back in the ace role. I wouldn’t be too surprised if we saw another MVP-caliber season.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole

Next: Duds

Which pitchers are going to be duds next season?

James Shields, San Diego Padres: A.J. Preller brought in James Shields to be his ace on a team that was expected to be an offensive powerhouse. However, the Padres came out flat and were out of the playoff race before you knew it. The Padres ranked 23rd in runs scored last year and did not give their new ace any run support. He didn’t help the Padres out either. His 1.33 WHIP was the 21st highest among all eligible starting pitchers. He gave up way too much contact, which hurts playing in the NL West because he takes multiple trips to hitter friendly parks in Colorado and Arizona. He allowed 33 homers in 33 starts last season and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number goes up in his age 33 season.

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants: Samardzija will leave The Windy City for the first time in eight year career outside of a short stint in the bay area. His transition over to the south side was unsuccessful as he racked up an ERA in the high 4’s. Like Shields, Samardzija was also hampered by his high contact rate, which produce 29 homers and 228 hits in 214 innings pitched. The NL West is stacked with power hitters and hitter-friendly ballparks, which affects his fantasy outlook for next season. Many people seem to think that Samardzija will rebound on the west coast in 2016, but I’m not confident in that. It is hard to pitch up to expectation when you are giving up way too many hits. I would avoid him in all formats.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals: The Nationals should be an improved offensive team next season if they do make the trade for Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. It also helps that Bryce Harper is incredible and should improve from an already unbelievable breakout year. These are all huge positives for the Nationals pitching staff as they should see plenty of run support. The one pitcher that I do see having a down year would be Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been the Nationals most consistent pitcher over the past four seasons; however, last year, he allowed a career high in hits and earned runs.

Next: Week 15 (QB) – The Peak, Weak, and Sneak of the Week!

The Nationals have also been careful with his innings as his last two seasons were the lowest of his eight year career as a starter. He hasn’t been the same pitcher over the last few years and it wouldn’t be surprising if he continues to decline next season.