Hawaii Bowl 2015, San Diego State vs. Cincinnati preview, predictions, odds and live stream info

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Two of the most consistent Group of Five programs will meet on Thursday night when the San Diego State Aztecs take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in the 2015 Hawaii Bowl at Aloha Stadium.

The Aztecs entered the seasons as one of the favorites in the Mountain West Conference, but off to a shaky 1-3 start that included a puzzling loss to South Alabama. However, San Diego State rattled of nine consecutive wins to end the season, including a 27-24 victory over Air Force in the conference championship game.

As usual, the Aztecs play physical defense and run the ball effectively. Junior running back Donnel Pumphrey carried the ball 284 times for 1,554 yards and 26 touchdowns to lead an efficient Aztecs offense.

Cincinnati had an inconsistent 2015 campaign, finishing at 7-5 in the third year of the Tommy Tuberville era. The Bearcats didn’t lose consecutive games this season and came away with a big nonconference win against Miami, but were unable to pick up a signature victory against any of the top AAC teams.

With starting quarterback Gunner Kiel sitting out due to a personal matter, the Bearcats will turn to backup Hayden Moore to lead what has been a very explosive offense. Moore has appeared in seven games this season, completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards and nine touchdowns.

The 2015 Hawaii Bowl stats at 8:00 PM eastern on Christmas Eve on ESPN and can be streamed on the WatchESPN app. Further details for Thursday’s game are below:

Date: Thursday, December 24, 2015
Start Time: 8:oo PM eastern
Location: Honolulu, HI
Stadium: Aloha Stadium
TV Info: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: ESPN Radio, Sirius XM 80
Ticket information: For ticket information, click here.

Keys to Victory

The Bearcats will face a difficult challenge without Kiel, as the school confirmed he would not make the trip to Hawaii last week, via Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Moore is a capable replacement, and even set a school record with 557 passing yards in his first career start earlier this year against Memphis. However, the Bearcats are going to need to be at their best to beat a very good San Diego State squad.

The Aztecs feature one of the better defenses in the country under Rocky Long’s unique 3-3-5 scheme. In particular, an experienced defensive line and outstanding linebacker duo Jake Fely and Calvin Munson play very physical football and have shut down opposing running games all year long.

It’s difficult to completely eliminate big plays from the Bearcats offense, which primarily relies on the passing attack. However, a backup quarterback against an experienced defense that throws a lot of confusing looks at opponents could lead to Cincinnati not putting quite as many points on the board as usual.

That means Cincinnati may need to rely a little more on it’s porous defense than usual. The Bearcats have allowed 5.2 yards per carry per TeamRankings, one of the worst marks in the country, so stopping Pumphrey seems like a tall order.

However, if the Bearcats manage to eliminate the run somehow, they could be in business. San Diego State expects to be without quarterback Maxwell Smith due to a knee injury, meaning backup Christian Chapman would get the start.

San Diego State is the also the best team in the nation with a +19 turnover margin, while Cincinnati is among the worst at -16. If the Bearcats are going to win, they need to reverse that trend.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: CIN -1.5
Moneyline: CIN -120, SDSU + 100
O/U: 57

San Diego’s nine-game winning streak includes an 8-1 mark against the spread over that time. Cincinnati is 6-6 against the spread this season

Prediction

The Bearcats will be able to generate a few splash plays, but San Diego State’s physicality and opportunistic defense is going to be too much to overcome.

Nothing Cincinnati has done so far suggests it will be able to contain the Aztecs’ potent rushing attack. Pumphrey is poised for a huge game,  and San Diego State will be able to keep the explosive Bearcats offense off the field by controlling the clock.

Even if Maxwell doesn’t play, the quarterback isn’t asked to do too much in the San Diego State offense, and the team has a solid group of receivers to work with. Chapman was effective enough against Air Force, completing nine of 14 passes for 203 yards and a touchdown.

The Aztecs will also be able to take advantage of turnover prone offense, and the extra possessions will give San Diego State enough offense to pull out the victory.

Final Score: San Diego State 35, Cincinnati 24