Julio Teheran: Will He Bounce Back from 2015 Disaster?
By Bill Pivetz
Julio Teheran was a highly drafted pitcher last season. However, he did not finish in the top 50 among starting pitchers. Will he be able to bounce back in 2016?
Every year, the starting pitching pool gets deeper and deeper. and it rings more true entering the 2016 season. With the emergence of top pitchers, some of the previously ranked top pitchers move down the ranks. One of them being Atlanta Braves No. 1 pitcher Julio Teheran. While his 2015 season wasn’t horrific, it was disappointing to his fantasy owners. What will he do in 2016?
Julio Teheran was the 18th starting pitcher drafted in ESPN leagues last season, behind Sonny Gray and Jeff Samardzija, mostly because of his excellent 2014 season. He went 14-13 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 186 strikeouts over 221 innings.
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He finished the season No. 59 among pitchers and 231 overall on the Player Rater, behind Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda. He finished this season with a 11-8 record and a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 171 strikeouts over 200 and 2/3 innings. His high ERA and WHIP cost him some points on the Rater.
The biggest drop off from Julio Teheran last season was his HR/9 rate. He allowed 27 home runs this season and 1.21 HR/9, both career highs. While his fly ball rate drastically went down, the fly balls he did allow went over the fence. 13.0 HR/FB rate. His FIP was a 4.40, which is closely aligned with his ERA, so most of the blame for his horrible season should be credited to him.
It was surprising he had as bad of a season as he did because the National League East did not hit all that well. Three of the teams finished 15th or worse in batting average and on-base percentage and all four NL East opponents finished 15th or worse in slugging. Digging deeper, most his home runs allowed came from inter-league play, mostly the American League East. So, if you draft Teheran next season, you may want to bench him against AL opponents.
Next: Xander Bogaerts: Top 3 Shortstop in 2016?
I owned Julio Teheran last season, and it was very frustrating. I never knew which Teheran I was getting. One game he would go seven innings with one or two runs allowed or he would go six innings with four earned runs and not get the quality start. Personally, I am avoiding Teheran this season. His struggles on the road are not worth drafting as a No. 3 pitcher in a standard league.
Projection: 11-11, 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 170 strikeouts
Draft: Round 10