Aroldis Chapman vs Craig Kimbrel: comparing the cost for an elite closer
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees both threw down the gauntlets with the acquisition of elite closers this winter, but did they overpay?
Acquiring elite relief pitching has been the top objective for many a Major League team this winter. And in the midst of it all, arguably the game’s two top closers have changed addresses and added a new log on the fire of the game’s marquee rivalry, with Craig Kimbrel heading to the Boston Red Sox and Aroldis Chapman now being the newest member of the New York Yankees.
Both were highly sought after and ended up being the center of the two biggest trades of the offseason thus far. The Padres sent Kimbrel to the Boston for a handful of prospects, including Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.
On Monday, the Yankees returned fire by acquiring Chapman, as the Cincinnati Reds shipped out their All-Star closer for a package of prospects that included Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda, Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham.
The duo were acquired under both surprisingly similar terms and scenarios, however. For both teams, the move represents what could be seen as luxury add in some regards. Both teams already featured proven ninth inning commodities, with Koji Uehara in Boston and Andrew Miller in New York. To compound things further, add in the presence of super setup man Dellin Betances as well in New York.
Yet the Red Sox felt the need to get even stronger in the backend of their pen, while the Yankees saw too good of a deal to pass up in Chapman, who’s trade value had fallen considerably in light of the possible suspension that could be looming for him after domestic abuse charges surfaced earlier in the offseason.
For years now, the true value of a closer has been an oft-debated topic, but increasingly often, collections of powerhouse bullpen arms have become the biggest difference in team’s long-term fortunes. As starting pitching wares down, the bullpen becomes a bigger part of the game earlier and earlier. However, as the Kansas City Royals have proven over the past few years, there is championship-level value in having a shutdown back end bullpen that can shorten games. The various pairings of Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera have played a large part in sending them to two consecutive World Series, as well as triumphing in this season’s Fall Classic.
Yet regardless of one’s stance on bullpen usage and closer value, the impact of both Kimbrel and Chapman is beyond reproach. During his run with the Braves and Padres to start his career, four times Kimbrel led the National League in saves and has 225 for his career. That has been good for a 13.4 WAR for his career.
Meanwhile, Chapman was establishing himself as the most intimidating pitcher in the game, striking out over 100 more batters than innings pitched and regularly issuing fastballs that reach as high as 105 miles per hour. Has has topped 30 saves for past four seasons, while being responsible for a 10.9 WAR.
While six other relievers have career WAR figures higher than theirs, all have played between a two and eight more seasons than either Kimbrel or Chapman. Between the two, they have converted on 371 of the 412 save opportunities they have been handed since both entered the league in 2010, while holding opposing batters to a miniscule .155 average against.
Simply put, they have performed at an elite level in obviously high leverage situations better than any other pitchers in the game over the past half-decade, which in turn understandably makes them the highly coveted properties they were entering the offseason.
The situations under which both were dealt were also remarkably similar. Both were traded from small-to-mid market clubs in San Diego and Cincinnati to two of the biggest teams in the game in terms of payroll. The Yankees and Red Sox are teams that could both budget paying a high figure to fortify an already strong role on their roster, as well as afford the pile of prospects it would cost to obtain them from their rebuilding former clubs.
And it is that cost of exchange that is the most similar part of both situations. While both Kimbrel and Chapman came at the expense of multiple valuable prospects, neither came at the cost of one of their new organizations absolutely top prospects and promising youngsters, as the Red Sox maintained Yoan Mercado, Blake Swihart, Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafeal Devers and Henry Owens. Meanwhile, the Yankees managed to keep prized young talents Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Jorge Mateo, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge.
Margot it could be argued was a top prospect for the Red Sox, and likely will instantly become the top ranked talent in the Padres organization. However in comparison to what the Red Sox have gained in Kimbrel, and maintain in their system still, it was an affordable cost in exchange for creating one of the best bullpens in the American League via a singular addition.
Meanwhile, the best piece of talent that the Yankees yielded is debatable, falling between Jagielo and Davis. But regardless none being in the range of a top 100 level prospect speaks to both the tumultuous nature of Chapman’s standing right now, but also to fact that the true cost of landing an elite closer is perhaps one of the best value acquisitions in the game today, regardless of the situations surrounding them.
The final lesson here: acquiring an elite closer is highly doable if it is deemed as being worth potentially one top prospect or so, as well as some highly likely to be productive organizational talent as well. But the going rate is more than doable if the goal is to instantly upgrade the team’s chances for the next season, while not sabotaging its future in the process.