Marcus Paige is an interesting NBA prospect. On one hand, he is a star college basketball player; the leading vote getter on the 2014 AP Preseason All-American team and a member of CBS Sports’ 2015 Preseason All-American third team. On the other hand, Paige doesn’t project well as an NBA prospect. He’s currently ranked 81st in Chad Ford’s Top 100 Draft Big Board, one spot behind Theo Pinson — Paige’s sophomore teammate who hasn’t received anywhere close to the same type of accolades or attention.
Paige is a great college player, that much we know. But great college players often don’t make great NBA players, or even good ones. The college and pro games are different, and while Paige’s skill set flourishes among the 18- to 22-year-olds of the college ranks, the projections for how his game will hold up against professionals isn’t as rosy.
Let’s take a deeper look at what Paige does well offensively and defensively to see how his game could translate to the pros.
Strengths
Paige has a lot of skills, but his ability to shoot the ball — both off the dribble and coming off screens — is his biggest asset. In his Carolina career, Paige has taken 630 3-pointers and made 243 of them, good for a shooting percentage of 38.6 percent. He likes the right wing the best, where he shot a scorching 47 percent from last season, per Shot Analytics.
Paige puts that to good use in clutch situations, having hit many big shots for the Tar Heels over his four seasons in Chapel Hill. That’s even more valuable given his ability his own shot, especially in pick and roll situations. You can’t go under screens or he will step back and hit a 3-pointer in your face; give him space and he’ll finish in the lane with a bag of nifty shots, including floaters and effective lefty lay-ups.
All of that was on display when Paige scored 20 points against Maryland earlier this season.
Keep in mind that game above was his first of the season — he sat the Heels’ first six with a hand injury. Watch the highlight tape and you will see a talented offensive player going to work, one who can score in a variety of ways from a variety of spots. While the game is impressive regardless of the circumstances, the fact that it was Paige’s first of the season against the second ranked Maryland only makes it look better.
Paige had five assists in that game and is averaging 5.1 per 40 minutes, per Sports Reference. Keep in mind that Paige’s senior season has only consisted of eight games so far, but if Paige can keep that pace up, it would on par with his totals last season. That’s particularly impressive considering that Paige has shifted to mostly (if not exclusively) playing the two. Joel Berry II runs the point now for the Tar Heels and Paige plays on the wing alongside Justin Jackson.
It will be interesting to see what position Paige wants to play in the pros. In some ways, he is a tweener — not necessarily in a good way. Paige is too small to play the two, but his skill set is closer to that position than that of a true point guard. There is room in the league for combo guards, though, and that’s probably what Paige will be. He could bring the ball up sometimes, but more often than not he will be spacing the floor on the wing and running pick and rolls as a part of an offense’s secondary action on a possession.
Weaknesses
Paige is small, especially for a point-guard. His height is listed as 6-1 with an 8-2 standing reach and a 6-5.5 wingspan, per NBA Draft.net. Those measurements peg him as about average for a point guard and in around the 10th percentile for shooting guards, according to data collected from our friends at Nylon Calculus.
In addition to his lack of size, Paige doesn’t have some of the quickness or athleticism that other small guards have to compensate. He can’t rely on quickness to get to the basket, instead using shot fakes, hesitation dribbles and smarts to finish around the hoop. That works more often than not against poor college defenders, but will it work when he’s matched up against Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul? Hell, what about any above average wing defender in the NBA?
Given all that, it’s no surprise that Paige is a below average finisher at the rim. Last season, he shot 55 percent at the rim. This year, that mark has been slightly higher (58 percent) through eight games. It should be noted that in Paige’s sophomore season, when he was fully healthy, he converted 63 percent of his shots around the hoop. Last year, he dealt with a nagging foot injury that limited his explosiveness, and in his senior season, the aforementioned hand injury still limits him.
Paige can finish at the rim, of course, but he has to use floaters and scoop shots instead of dunks and above the rim action. Watch the first shot off this highlight reel, for example — that’s over Willie Cauley-Stein, a top-10 NBA draft pick last year.
The good news: Paige finishes around the rim when it counts. Last year, he hit two amazing shots in the paint, both game winners — one against Louisville and the other against N.C. State. Some question his decision making, but his track record in close games is good, and you could stick Paige out there in any competitive game and he would have the toughness and guts to still perform.
Defense
Paige generates turnovers well. He has averaged 1.5 steals per game for the Tar Heels over his career and last season he ranked sixth in the ACC in steal percentage, per KenPom. He sometimes struggles fighting over screens and keeping bigger, faster opponents out of the paint.
The bottom line for Paige is that he is never going to be a defensive stopper and will probably have to hide on the other team’s weaker guard in the NBA.
A lot of his struggles on the defensive end are due to his lack of size and athletic ability, and that’s where it all comes back to for Paige. He has skill and has proven the ability to score in bunches, but can he hang with the big boys in the NBA? Ultimately, he has to keep proving to scouts that his shot is reliable and he is tough enough to succeed at the next level.
All stats accessed on Dec. 31.