Aaron Nola: Deep Sleeper Pitcher for 2016
By Bill Pivetz
The Philadelphia Phillies called up Aaron Nola just after the All-Star break. He had a good showing in 13 starts and is a sleeper pick for next season.
The Philadelphia Phillies 2015 season was a roller coaster, but going down most of the time. The starting pitching looked good in spurts, but couldn’t get consistent run support from the offense to string together a double-digit winner. There were a couple of good things that came out of this season. One, the team traded away Jonathan Papelbon and two, the call up of rookie pitcher Aaron Nola. He pitched well in his first 13 starts and will be a value pick in fantasy drafts next season.
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Between Double- and Triple-A, he went 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 92 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. He then received the call to the majors and made his first start on July 21. He took the loss in a 1-0 game against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing the one run on five hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings.
Aaron Nola finished the 2015 season 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 13 starts. He allowed 11 home runs over 77.2 innings. His six wins was tied for the team lead and his ERA led all Phillies starters.
Nola isn’t a big strikeouts pitcher, averaging 7.88 K/9 between the minors and majors. His 21.4 strikeout rate would have ranked him 34th among qualified pitchers. However, he does induce a lot of ground balls, 47.6 ground ball rate in 2015
In just 13 starts, Aaron Nola ranked 96th among starting pitchers on the Player Rater, 367th overall. Obviously, the lack of a full season hurt his ranking, but his ERA and low WHIP were able to elevate him into the top-100. He went undrafted in the majority of ESPN leagues, but because of injuries and streaming matchups, he was owned in close to 25 percent of leagues.
Entering the 2016 season, the Phillies didn’t do much to improve their offense. The team had just one hitter reach 20 home runs and 77 RBI, Ryan Howard. That doesn’t seem too promising. When your offensive support ranks in the bottom third in runs, hits, RBI and batting average, the wins are likely not going to be there. That shouldn’t matter if you play with quality starts.
Regardless, Aaron Nola has the stuff to a drafted starting pitcher. While the strikeouts are low, he doesn’t allow many hits. He’s the Phillies No. 2 pitcher and will not be under an innings cap next season. As an SP5 in standard leagues, Nola is worth the late-round flyer.
Projections: 9-12, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 125 strikeouts
Draft: Round 23