Here are how the Indianapolis Colts can perform a miracle and clinch a playoff spot in Week 17 of the NFL season.
There are long shots, and then there’s the Indianapolis Colts making the postseason. The only way this is possible is by winning the AFC South ahead of the Houston Texans, who currently sit a game better than the Colts. Before Monday Night Football in Week 16, the Colts had a 0.003% chance of making the post season, per ESPN. Thankfully for the Colts, the Denver Broncos beat the Cincinnati Bengals, keeping their play off hopes on life support. They now need no less than nine games to go their way to win the division. Buckle up, because this is a hectic ride.
First and foremost, the Colts must win, bringing their season to an 8-8 record. Houston must then lose to the Tennessee Titans, bringing them to 8-8 also. The first four tiebreakers – head-to-head record, record in division games, record against common opponents, and record in conference games – would all be tied. This leads us to the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory.
Of the eight wins for both teams, four would be identical, with both sides beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Jaguars and sweeping the Titans. The fifth win is their own match up, which they split, so the strength of schedule tiebreaker would be decided by the teams’ other three victories. The Texans beat Bengals, Jets and Saints while the Colts beat the Broncos, Falcons and Dolphins.
The only way for the Colts’ strength of victory to equal that of the Texans is if the Broncos, Falcons and Dolphins win and the Bengals, Jets and Saints all lose. This then gives us the next tiebreaker, strength of overall schedule. Of the 16 teams played, 12 are identical and two games were against each other. Therefore, strength of schedule comes down to the final two teams. For the Texans, the Chiefs and Bengals; for the Colts, the Broncos and Steelers.
For the Colts to win the strength of schedule tiebreaker, the Chiefs must lose and the Steelers must win, with the Broncos and Bengals results having already been factored in due to the strength of victory tiebreaker. In this scenario the Colts would win the division and head to the postseason. Easy!