Houston, we have a problem

Last Tuesday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks could not have painted a better picture of the 2015-16 season for the Houston Rockets. They jumped on the Hawks out of the gate — thanks to some vintage cooking from James Harden — leading by as many as 18 points in the first half. Just like that, however, the lead in the second half vanished, and the Rockets found themselves at the end of another ugly loss.

This team, who held championship aspirations at the beginning of the season, has been maddeningly inconsistent and the loss to Atlanta was just another example. There are moments when they look like the second best team in the Western Conference from a year ago — running around, thriving in chaos, with Harden hitting ridiculous shots and threes coming in waves. Other times they look distraught, confused, and a shell of the team that made it to the Western Conference Finals just seven months ago.

The rockiness started almost immediately after the season began, with the team firing former head coach Kevin McHale after a disappointing 4-7 start. Things haven’t gone much smoother for interim head coach J.B. Bickerstaff as the Rockets still remain under .500 and have lost five out of their last seven games. Outside the loss column there have been internal frustrations with Harden, rumors of Dwight Howard wanting a trade, and the failed experiment of adding Ty Lawson to a locker room already full of personalities. It seems like just about every week brings a new and negative headline.

The problems start with the roster and extend to both ends of the court. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of obvious solutions.

OFFENSE

Rockets’ General Manager Daryl Morey has become famous for his “Morey Ball,” a philosophy that emphasizes the most efficient shots on a basketball court, layups and three pointers. At their very best, the Rockets are everything that Morey envisioned — a driving, slashing, kicking, three-point bombing juggernaut that attacks relentlessly in transition.

There is no better poster child for this philosophy than James Harden himself, a drive-and-kick mad man. Everybody knows about Harden’s absurd knack for getting into the lane and drawing fouls, but his sixth sense for reading the floor and finding the open guy is what lifted him to runner-up for MVP last season. People have grown tired of Harden’s isolations, but it can be such a great vehicle for creating advantages against the defense.

However, this season Harden has been a big part of the problem. His decision making hasn’t been as sharp, as shown by the dip in his assists per game and an increase in his turnovers per game, where Harden is currently the league leader. This year we are seeing more instances, like this one, where he will walk the ball up and disrupt fast breaks, turning the ball over rather carelessly.

The Rockets as a team struggle to take care of the ball, and are second worst in the league with a turnover percentage of 16.6. Their passes are rarely on target to their shooters anymore, if they even get there in the first place.

The overall spacing and offensive principles have been subpar in the halfcourt. The Rockets have always thrived off of having space to work with on all of their actions. To optimize a team’s spacing on the floor, there are certain spots that players need to stand in order to get the maximum amount of spacing around the main focus of the possession.

Take this Dwight Howard post up for example. All in one possession, Howard has both Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley cut right at the spot he is posting up. Then, once they clear to the other side, both Ariza and Beverley are hanging out inside the three point line, allowing their defenders to help even farther down and clog the lane.

We’ve seen Houston’s offense look a lot sharper before, which makes it all the more frustrating when you see these sorts of things happening. The attention to detail and urgency with which the team seemed to play with last year isn’t there.

DEFENSE

For as good as the Rockets were on offense last season, they really made their money on the defensive end, where the team ranked sixth in defensive efficiency. Their scheme was hectic and it worked. Houston tied for third in the NBA in opponent’s turnovers, the result of a scrambling scheme that got into passing lanes and created chaos.

The hardest part about playing such an aggressive style of defense is that every rotation has to be on time. There is a slim margin for error when executing a style that brings extra help on ball screens and has players cheating more toward the strong side of the play. Every player has to be locked in. If one player isn’t, it will result in a wide open shot for the offense.

While Houston is still forcing plenty of turnovers (currently eighth in the league), they are also giving up the third worst field goal percentage to opposing teams. Instead of their scheme being solid enough to force tough shots and create turnovers, it has turned into feast or famine. It’s either a steal leading to points or a wide open look for the opposing team.

Houston has allowed a ton of unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts this season. Paul Millsap misses this shot, but this is an example of the kind of open looks that are created when you have too many people unnecessarily dropping down into the paint instead of sitting in a stance and in the right help position.

If you’re too aggressive at closing out or helping off of shooters, you can get burned. Playing against teams that move the ball well, like San Antonio for example, Houston has been torched.

The Rockets dodge a major bullet on this possession when Danny Green misses a wide open three after Ariza inexplicably helps off of him on a Kawhi Leonard drive.

There is absolutely no room for missed rotations in the defense Houston wants to play. It requires discipline, effort, and another level of mental focus. It isn’t like this team is incapable of accomplishing this style effectively. We saw it last season and even at times this season.

Speculating that this team isn’t giving effort isn’t something that is quantifiable, but there are certain indicators that can point to that possibly being the case. One of those things is rebounding, a task that is hard on the body physically and not the most desirable thing to take on.

The Rockets are near the bottom in defensive rebounding and have given up the fourth most offensive rebounds to opposing teams. Here, Harden just stands and watches Al Horford grab this offensive rebound.

Rebounding isn’t the only thing. Some players just aren’t as good as they were last year as individual defenders. Even guys like Trevor Ariza, who is arguably their best defender, aren’t dialed in. Watch Jeff Teague blow right by Ariza on a straight line drive.

The defense is laughable at times. Everything about Harden’s defensive performance on this possession is inexplicable.

All of this has accumulated and led to a team dropping from sixth in defensive efficiency a year ago down to the bottom five this season. Attention to detail is so crucial on the defensive end and for a multitude of reasons, Houston can’t get their act together.

WHAT’S NEXT?

It is obvious that the Rockets aren’t executing anywhere close to the level that they were last year on both ends. When it comes to these types of things, the coach is usually the first person to get the blame. The Rockets already tried that by firing Coach McHale, and things still haven’t gotten any better. There have just been more embarrassing defensive possessions and ugly turnovers.

It feels like another shakeup is coming, but it is hard to tell what that will be. This roster as currently structured was absolutely a title contender last season. Houston played Golden State tough in almost every game of that five game Western Conference Finals, and maybe things would have been a little different if they would’ve had Donatas Motiejunas and Patrick Beverley available. The front office doubled down on the odds that they were close enough to hang in there with the Golden States and Clevelands of the world, bringing back guys like Jason Terry, Beverley, and Corey Brewer while also taking a gamble on Ty Lawson. The Lawson trade has turned into a near disaster, with Lawson barely even getting off the bench in some games.

Presumably, without having their first round pick this year, there are very few ways for this team to make a move for an upgrade without sacrificing a current piece on their roster. James Harden, despite not being near the elite level player he was last year, is still the centerpiece of the team and is probably the closest thing to an untouchable that this team has. Other guys — like Lawson, Brewer, and Beverley — have played well under their expectations to the point that there probably aren’t any teams that would want them. Ariza may be an interesting option, even if he hasn’t been himself this year either, but the Rockets may not be able to afford to trade him given that they’re already hurting for depth on the wing. This leaves a few interesting options in one of the Donatas Motiejunas/Terrence Jones power forwards, or Dwight Howard.

Both Jones and Motiejunas are restricted free agents this offseason, and given Daryl Morey’s penchant for not wanting to overpay players and preserve cap space (see Chandler Parsons), it isn’t unthinkable that these guys could switch teams in the summer. The problem with this for the Rockets, however, is that both players may not be worth trading. The Rockets need Jones’ rebounding and versatility on the offensive end; their offensive rating drops 4.8 points per 100 possessions when he is off the floor. Motiejunas may be the more expendable of the two, but with his injury history and regressed play this season, who knows if they’d be able to even get anything back for him.

That leaves Dwight Howard, the mercurial superstar who never ceases to grab the attention of the NBA rumor mill. Morey is the king of asset management, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if come February that Howard is playing for another team. Dwight can opt out of his current contract and become a free agent this summer, and Morey may want to get some value out of Dwight before he could leave for nothing. Given second-year big man Clint Capela’s emergence as a probable long term piece for this team, the Rockets may be able to tread water and survive with Capela giving them a poor man’s version of what Dwight does. Capela is one of the few Rockets who seems to be playing hard on a consistent basis and he has grown into a rim rolling, lob dunking, rim protecting big that the modern NBA demands.

If the Rockets choose to move on from Howard, Motiejunas, Jones, and Lawson, they could have up to $43 million in cap space when the salary cap explodes next summer.

Just like it seems to be every summer, this will be another huge offseason for the Houston Rockets. They could add a max player while also bringing back one of the Jones/Motiejunas restricted free agents and have a team that could conceivably get back to where they were a year ago. Harden, Ariza, Capela, Beverley, another max player, and one of those two power forwards is enough to make noise in a Western Conference that is surprisingly weaker this year.

That is all assuming that this team can correct the things that have been ailing them. You can blame it on coaching, but at the end of the day, this is the same team that executed the same scheme last year yet getting results that are far worse. Nobody is free from blame on a team that has had their worst case scenario come true this season.