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Jonathan Papelbon: Top-15 Closer in 2016

By Bill Pivetz

Sep 19, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon (58) throws to the Miami Marlins during the ninth inning at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals won 5 - 2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon (58) throws to the Miami Marlins during the ninth inning at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals won 5 - 2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
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After the Friday night trade, Jonathan Papelbon is now the clear-cut closer for the Washington Nationals. Can he bounce back to elite status in 2016?

The Washington Nationals made a trade late Friday night that sent relief pitcher Drew Storen to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Ben Revere. My colleague Brad Kelly outlined the fantasy impact of the trade here. I’m going to focus on the No. 1 benefactor of the trade, closer Jonathan Papelbon. Without any competition, he will be a top-15 closer in 2016.

Papelbon was a dominant closer for most of his time with the Boston Red Sox. In just under 430 innings, he recorded 219 saves with a 2.33 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 509 strikeouts. He was one of the few constants in the ninth inning. His time with the Philadelphia Phillies wasn’t bad, either. He had a 2.31 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 123 saves and 252 strikeouts in 238 innings. Then, he was traded to the Nationals.

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He had more issues off the field than on it. Everyone remembers the dugout incident with Bryce Harper that resulted in a four-game suspension. However, that shouldn’t overlook the good half of a season he had in Washington. In 23.2 innings, he recorded seven saves with a 3.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 16 strikeouts.

As you can see, the numbers rose with the switch to Washington. The biggest jump was his HR/FB rate, 8.6 in Philly compared to 14.8 in Washington. That goes hand-in-hand with his fly ball rate, 33.7 to 37.0 percent between the two teams. Though, Jonathan Papelbon was able to finish No. 21 among closers on the Player Rater.

The National League East was one of the worst-hitting offenses in the league last season. The four teams (not counting Washington) finished in the bottom half in runs and RBI and three (excluding the Miami Marlins) were in the bottom half in hits and average. I would say a full season in this division would help his numbers, but Jonathan Papelbon played in the NL East since 2012.

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Jonathan Papelbon recently turned 35, but that hasn’t stopped other premier closers from being elite. Now, with Storen out of the picture, this is Papelbon’s job to lose, which automatically makes him a top closer heading into 2016. A team without a committee situation in the bullpen makes the closer very attractive to fantasy owners. However, he has shown signs of falling apart. He allowed nine runs (five earned) in 12.2 innings in September last season. Be careful that Papelbon can get out of control at any point in the season.

Projections: 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28 saves, 58 strikeouts

Draft: Round 12

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