Jump Ball Tidbits: 1/4-1/10

This is already the fifth post devoted to only jump balls, which is five more than necessary since this part of basketball is usually meaningless. Some make a small impact, however, while others are at the very least amusing. We also see players participating in a jump ball for the first time all season or in multiple seasons, which I’m sure they were just as excited about as I was. You can find win-loss records since 1997 here, but this post covers just last week’s.[1. I’ve been posting these on Tuesdays mostly because the data for Sunday is available not that night, but Monday morning. Also it fits better with my work life.]

Below are some of the oddities which caught my attention.

Notable Wins and Losses

Here are the 10 most meaningful jump balls according to Inpredictable’s win probability graphs. I’ll actually post two tables because there is an option to display real time odds, which start with both teams having a 50 percent chance of winning, and a pre-game option where the odds are tilted in favor of the stronger team.

Unfortunately, last week didn’t have any jump balls with a major swing in win probability or a difference between the two types of tables. The Deandre Jordan-Ryan Anderson tip looks less important in the table with pre-game odds, but the one where DeMarcus Cousins beat out JaVale McGee in an overtime looks slightly better.[2. McGee, a jump ball great, lost two jump balls in overtime on Tuesday. One more loss would put him 66.8 percent for his career, and Rudy Gay would pass him for the eighth-best winning percentage since 1997, minimum 100 jump balls. Very big deal.] In another jump ball at or near the top of the table is Alexis Ajinca’s, who recovered his own tip. Looking at regular season jump balls since 1997, a player recovering his own jump ball happens about 22 times per season and has happened 13 times in 2015-16.

Some of the more interesting jump balls from last week involved the Celtics and Nets. First, Marcus Smart forced one against Donald Sloan after Sloan let the ball roll up the court, and probably would’ve had a steal if not for a quick whistle:

Later on, Isaiah Thomas did what he could to win a tip against Thaddeus Young which was basically nothing:

This actually worked earlier in the season against Jerami Grant with Grant tipping the ball to a Celtic. In the same possession, Thomas drew a shooting foul against him.

Another notable was Gordon Hayward winning against Roy Hibbert on Sunday to go 5-0. Players with a height advantage of four inches or more typically win about two-thirds of the time or more, as noted before the season, but that just didn’t happen here.

Kevin Love winning a jump ball against Ricky Rubio on Friday was slightly dramatic. Not so interesting was Cole Aldrich tipping a jump ball to nobody in particular. Somewhere in the middle was Brook Lopez and Aron Baynes getting awkward before their jump ball matchup:

Milestones

100 career wins for Steven Adams, who might be on his way to the best at jump balls over the last 20 seasons. He’s currently the best at opening tips, minimum 100 attempts. Below are the top 10 since 1997:

Making the sample size smaller doesn’t help any. Nobody with more than two open tips has a higher winning percentage than Adams in those situations. He’s currently 33-9 this season, good for a winning percentage of 78.5. When looking at single-season marks, he ranks very well but not at the top. I made this one a minimum of 40 jump balls, or nearly half the season.

So Adams still has a way to go, chasing history in winning percentage much like the Golden State Warriors, or something.

DeMarcus Cousins reached both 100 total wins and losses and is currently 101-101. Meanwhile, Zaza Pachulia sadly reached 100 open tip losses and now has a winning percentage of just 38 percent in those situations, 111th out of 128 players with at least 100 open tips.

Notable Firsts

Ryan Anderson had his first opening tip since 2011 on Sunday. Since Anthony Davis was injured and Omer Asik can be difficult to put on the floor, Anderson took the overtime tip against DeAndre Jordan and predictably lost.

Amare Stoudemire, who lost but still holds a win percentage of 60 percent and Avery Bradley, who beat Zach Randolph because of a lane violation on Mario Chalmers.

Lastly, Steph Curry won his first jump ball of his season, but in the process ruined basketball for good.

Have a great rest of the week!

As a reminder, jump ball stats are from official NBA play-by-play logs.