NFL Divisional Playoffs odds: Best bets against the spread
By Brad Rowland
New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 points
This pick is, quite simply, a move to fade the public and that almost always come with the under. More than 75% of the ticket count (per William Hill) is on the side of the over, but 84% of the actual money (again, per William Hill) is on the under. For the uninitiated, that means that the smart people are on the under while everyone else is on the over.
I want to side the smart people.
From a football standpoint, this side also makes some sense, given that I simply don’t believe Kansas City is going to score on New England in Foxboro. We’ve already covered the fact that I would lay the points with the Pats, but given their offensive limitations (injury-related), a score in the 24-13 range makes some sense to me. Take the under and pray.
Arizona Cardinals (-7) over Green Bay Packers
Spoiler alert: This is my least favorite pick of the week. In truth, I wouldn’t give this out during a regular season week because, well, I don’t love either side.
For the benefit of this shortened slate, though, I’m rolling with the favorite. Everyone appears to be back on the Green Bay bandwagon after their impressive win in Washington last week, and that makes some sense given that Aaron Rodgers is at the helm. Still, I remain skeptical that the Packers are legitimately cooking offensively, and Arizona, if anything, is undervalued here.
I have a reasonable level of comfort in projecting an Arizona victory, and the number isn’t quite large enough to push me off of that. Take it at your own peril, though.
Next: Seahawks-Panthers and Steelers-Broncos