NFL Championship Weekend odds: Best bets against the spread

The right side isn’t always the winning side.

There is, of course, some debate over that concept, but in my mind, it is entirely plausible to think that a handicapper can have the best side and still lose or push. That happened multiple times during NFL Divisional Playoff weekend.

The Cardinals failed to cover (er, push) after a miraculous series from Aaron Rodgers that forced overtime and a virtually automatic loss, while the Patriots-Chiefs under was broken in the final seconds on a meaningless score from Kansas City. Nonetheless, we won’t be deterred by a 1-3-1 week in the Playoffs, and we are “seeing the ball” well despite that result.

Now, let’s check in on where the season-long results stand.

• Last week: 1-3-1
• Season: 49-43-3

Without further delay, let’s take a glance the Championship Week picks, bringing you a look at both sides and totals because that is what the people crave.

New England Patriots and Denver Broncos UNDER 44.5 points

When Peyton Manning plays, Denver’s offense is below-average and I’m being kind with that description. Throw in the fact that the AFC Championship Game will be played outdoors in Colorado in January, and I feel confident that the Broncos will have trouble posting a large point total against a quality defense from New England.

The worry with this pick is, of course, that the Patriots are capable of rolling up 27-30 points against just about anyone. Denver’s defense is undeniably good, though, and New England has struggled enough with its offensive line where 30 points in the same outdoor conditions feels like a stretch. I don’t love either side here, but when all else fails, take the under in a game that involves two of the top 10 defenses in the NFL.

New England Patriots (-3) over Denver Broncos

I just can’t do it.

I can’t fade the public in this instance, even if it goes against everything I stand for in this space each week. Peyton Manning and company are actually hosting this game in Denver, making them a prime target for me as a home underdog. However, the Broncos used all of the smoke and mirrors to sneak past Pittsburgh with an ugly performance, and I simply can’t stomach a pick on them without the benefit of a significant cushion with the number.

New England is, in short, much better than Denver in my mind, and this pick is as much about the Patriots being quite good as it is about the Broncos being a team that I want to fade. Manning was largely mediocre against Pittsburgh even after the two-week break, and with fewer days to recover and prepare, I expect that to deteriorate even further in the cold weather against a better defense. Give me Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and company to win comfortably and advance to the Super Bowl.

May the public reign supreme in this one instance.

Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers UNDER 48 points

To be candid, this is my least favorite pick of the weekend and I wouldn’t give it out under normal circumstances. In short, I believe this is basically the correct line and the “under” is my default offering in this type of situation.

Carolina’s defense is at least slightly overrated based on the assumption that it is uber-elite, but Arizona’s defense is probably better than the general public assumes it to be. Both quarterbacks have been lights-out this season, but the low-scoring tint of the playoffs to this point and my general feelings about fading the over-betting public take me to this side. Fade if you’d like.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Carolina Panthers

I can’t ride with the public on both sides in the same weekend, and the public likes the Panthers at home. It is tough to blame the masses in this instance, as Carolina has been incredibly impressive throughout the season, peaking with the first half shellacking against Seattle.

Still, I feel like Arizona is the (slightly) better team from top to bottom, and only a blip performance from Carson Palmer against Pittsburgh keeps this line at three points. By no means am I racing to the window to take Arizona in the way that I am to take New England this week, but given the cushion, the Cardinals are the right side in my estimation.

I’m expecting a tightly contested game, and even if Carolina wins this game 50% of the time, enough of those victories come by 1 or 2 points to swing the “right” side to the Cardinals. Here we go.