Brice Johnson Scouting Report: January 2016

When Brice Johnson is on, he is just about unstoppable.

That was the case against Florida State early this season, when he finished with 39 points on 14-16 shooting from the field. He was on against UCLA, too, this time to the tune of 27 points on 11-12 shooting. And he was on against Wake Forest last week, putting up 27 points on 8-12 shooting.

In those games, through a combination of free throws, dunks and putbacks, Johnson put the ball in the basket at will. When his name comes up at the end of the season in Wooden Award Watch lists and in the National Player of the Year conversations, his supporters will point to these types of dominant in-game performances as proof for why he is one of the best players in the country.

But when looking at Johnson as an NBA prospect, and using his night-to-night performances as a barometer of potential, one sees not just the dominant games but also the ones that look out of place for a prospect this good. Take his performance against Clemson in the Tar Heels’ ACC opener as an example — 27 minutes played, 1-8 shooting and just three points scored — or his snoozer against N.C. State in their rivalry game — 18 minutes played and six points on 3-6 shooting while limited by foul trouble.

Roy Williams, the head coach at UNC, has a saying to make sense of this all. But I will let Andrew Carter, a beat writer for the Tar Heels, take over…

"“That’s Brice” has become one of Williams’ favorite and most-used sayings. It describes pretty much anything and everything Johnson does, and Williams uses it especially to describe Johnson’s dramatic swings in production and demeanor…The question now, as it always seems to be with Johnson, is whether “that’s Brice” will become a saying that describes consistent excellence or one that continues to be a way for Williams to matter-of-factly characterize Johnson’s inconsistency and laid-back nature."

That second paragraph is particularly important as it relates to Johnson’s NBA prospects. “That’s Brice” is cute in college, but inconsistency doesn’t cut it in the NBA. You either bring it every night or you find yourself on the bench or in the D-League.

Johnson has the talent to be a very good NBA player. He just has to conquer his consistency problems and prove to NBA scouts and coaches that his flashes of great play are more than just that — flashes. With that in mind, let’s take a look at his play on the court before revisiting that last point.

Offense

Johnson has a lot skills on offense that would work in the modern NBA. Yes, he can finish over both shoulders on the block and get points that way, but his skill set also fits the role that a big man in the modern NBA must play — a rim-diving, pick-setting machine.

Johnson has great hands and athleticism that allow him to catch tough passes and finish the paint. He can catch alley-oops and lobs and knows how to use the glass when around the basket. Johnson flirts with a jump shot, but he’s got a long way to go before defenses will consider him a true threat from midrange. For the most part, he stays away from that area and lives where he is strongest, in the paint.

Johnson ranks first in the Shot Analytics database for Points Above Expectation at the rim, where he’s made 89 of 104 field goals from — only two players in the entire database have a higher field goal percentage. A lot of those makes come off putbacks. Johnson has snagged 47 offensive rebounds this season, and has 29 of what Hoop-Math defines as “putbacks.”* His field goal percentage in those situations? 100 percent.

Johnson also does an excellent job of getting to the foul line, and a much improved job of converting those chances. In seven conference games this season, he’s drawn 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes, according to KenPom, a mark that ranks 4th in the league. His free throw shooting, which was a paltry 57.7 percent during his freshman season, is now at 79.5 percent three seasons later. No longer is free throw shooting a concern.

Johnson has 28 assists this season and has shown signs of being able to read and process what’s going on around him at an NBA-level of aptitude. Check out this clip of his eight assists against Syracuse. There are some dimes on there.

However, 51.9 percent of Johnson’s assists have come at the rim on big-to-big passes under the basket, according to Hoop-Math. His ability to find open shooters on the wing lags behind the rest of his passing game.

Defense

Johnson is averaging 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game as a senior. He protects the rim well and has proven the ability to jump off his man and dart in for a surprise block. Despite bulking up over the course of his four years in Chapel Hill, Johnson is still thin and can be taken advantage of on the block by stronger attackers. That could be a problem in the NBA — as his play stands now, I can’t imagine him holding up well against a low post bruiser.

Johnson doesn’t have a lot of side-to-side quickness on defense and it shows when opposing defenses run pick and rolls. UNC prefers an aggressive pick and roll scheme that features its bigs running out to hard hedge the opposing team’s guards. Sometimes Johnson is too slow getting out, or just goes through the motions. I’d like to see him in a more conservative pick and roll scheme that might better suit his strengths.

Johnson is an excellent defensive rebounder. He ranks 6th in the country, per KenPom, in defensive rebounding rate. He boxes out well and skies over everyone else in his path for missed shots.

Effort is sometimes a concern, though. Johnson likes to scream and yell after a big basket, but that sometimes means he gets back late on defense. That’s another example of a play Williams would explain with “That’s Brice,” which is where our conversation about Johnson finishes.

Again: When Johnson is on, he is just about unstoppable. But when he’s not on, he merely drifts on the court and doesn’t dominate the game like he should. This the the narrative on Johnson for now, but there is still time for him to change that — his performance during the Tar Heels’ NCAA tournament run will have a lot to do with his draft position, as scouts come to final conclusions on his motor and consistency.

One thing scouts will agree on is that Johnson can play. All the skill and production in the world is there, he just has to find a way to bring it every night and prove to scouts that this first round talent is worth a first round pick.

Putback attempts are shots taken by a player within four seconds of getting an offensive rebound, as defined by Hoop-Math.