Super Bowl 50 Odds: Best bets against the spread

Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) dives for but cannot catch a pass in the end zone against the New England Patriots in the second quarter in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

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Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) warms up prior to the AFC Divisional round playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Denver Broncos (+5.5) over Carolina Panthers

Over the past two NFL seasons, we have preached the art of “fading the public” in this space, and it would be hard to find a more public team than the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl. Depending on who you ask, Cam Newton and company are garnering between 70 and 90 percent of the action for Super Bowl 50, and as a result, the line has popped up to 5.5 points everywhere with a touch of a six-point number in some locations.

In truth, I believe the Panthers are going to win the game. The quarterback match-up is a complete mismatch in favor of Carolina, and while Denver’s defense is a tick better, it doesn’t make up for that. However, the public being almost entirely on one side is enough to push me toward the underdog in this spot.

At 3.5 points (the original line), I would’ve skipped to the window to lay the points and take Carolina. At 5.5 points, though, there is enough wiggle room to take Denver, even when that pick doesn’t come with much confidence.

The Super Bowl is the best example of a game where you don’t need to have a pick on the spread of the game, and it may be wise to stay away. If you are intent on taking a side, accept the points and fade the public.

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