Fantasy Baseball 2016 Catcher Rankings 10-1
By Bill Pivetz
Here are the catcher rankings for the upcoming 2016 season. With the No. 1 guy being obvious, who fills out the rest of the list?
The catcher position is one that often gets overrated. After the No. 1 guy, the talent pool drops off. The depth is there, but the level of talent is just not the same. In a standard 10-team league, there is only need for one catcher. As a result, I’m only going to rank the top-10 catchers. There are draftable players outside the top-10 and if you are in the “wait for a catcher” category, you can find a serviceable option late in drafts.
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I use a couple of different of criteria when developing my rankings. I look at their 2015 performance, where they finished on the Player Rater, their career performance and if this past season was an outlier, their surroundings (lineup support) and where I think they project this season. Some of it may be subjective, especially the projections, but I try to keep it in line with other fantasy sites.
The stats I use for the projections are runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. I know there are leagues that use OBP or OPS instead of average, but they are in the minority. I will keep it for the majority that use ESPN standard five categories. I do factor in hits though because it more or less affects average (or OBP).
Before we get into the rankings, here are my honorable mention.
Welington Castillo: He spent five and a half years with the Chicago Cubs and some time with the Seattle Mariners before ending up with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have made some interesting off-season decisions. Castillo hit 19 home runs, 57 RBI and .237 in 2015. The batting average and OBP are downers, but the power numbers may be something worth drafting Castillo for, especially in deeper leagues.
Stephen Vogt: Vogt was used at both catcher and first base last season. As a catcher (94 games), he hit 17 home runs, 61 RBI and .277. He hit 18/71/.261 on the season. The Oakland Athletics were an average offense with a drop off in the power numbers. The flexibility of using Vogt as a catcher or first baseman gives him a little more fantasy value, and I think the possibility of a 20-home run season increases it.
J.T. Realmuto: It is very rare that you find a catcher with power, contact and speed. I wrote about him in October as a potential top-five catcher. He hit 10 home runs and stole eight bases, leading all catchers in the latter stat. With Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour and Dee Gordon all entering the 2016 healthy, Realmuto has the opportunity to be a fantasy star. But we need to see more consistency first.
Here are my top-10 catchers for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
Next: No. 10: Sal Perez
Salvador Perez missed the first three months of the 2012 season with a torn meniscus, but finished the season strong. He hit .301 with 11 home runs and 39 RBI in 76 games. Since the 2013 season, he has been a consistent catching option. In 430 games, he hit 51 home runs, 219 RBI and a collective .270/.297/.420 line.
Last season was an improvement in the power department, hitting a career-high 21 home runs. He drove in 70 runs while hitting .260, same as 2014. He was voted to his third All-Star game and won his third Gold Glove award. Some may not think, but those awards do have some fantasy value. The Gold Glove awards do affect his pitchers and the Kansas City Royals’ team in general.
He doesn’t walk much, 2.4 walk rate, but also doesn’t strike out either, 14.8 strikeout percentage. His 12.4 HR/FB rate was the highest since his injury-shortened 2012 season. He finished fourth among catchers on the Player Rater and will be locked into a top-10 spot.
Perez isn’t the flashiest name on the board, but his consistency and 20-home run potential, which is nice from your catcher.
Next: No. 9: Devin Mesoraco
Last season was a big disappointment for Devin Mesoraco. After a breakout 2014 season (25/80/.273), he played in just 23 games. He played in nine games in April and 14 in May, most of the time spent as a pinch hitter. On June 20, he announced he would undergo hip surgery.
Going back to 2014, his last full season, he was one of the best catchers in the game. Despite striking out 103 times, he had a .359 on-base percentage because he had 105 hits, 41 walks and a 82.6 Z-contact percentage (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone). He had a 34.2 ground ball and 20.5 HR/FB rate and made the most of the pitches thrown at him.
I haven’t read anything that says he will not be ready for Opening Day. With the loss of Todd Frazier, the Cincinnati Reds need Mesoraco to bounce back and have another 25-home run season. Drafting him in the 14th or 15th round will be the sweet spot for him.
Next: No. 8: Yan Gomes
Yan Gomes will be the Cleveland Indians catcher for a long time. He signed a six-year extension in 2014, after hitting 21 home runs, 74 RBI and .278. Last season was a bit of a drop off, but still a decent season. He played in 93 games, hitting 12 home runs, 45 RBI and .231.
He struck out 104 times last season, 26.7 strikeout rate with just a 3.3 walk rate, which contributed to his .267 on-base percentage. There were some good things to takeaway. His 33.6 ground ball and 40.0 fly ball rates were both career bests.
The Indians offense was not that exciting, no 20-home run hitter and a .256 team average. If he’s 100 percent and ready to play over 140 games, Gomes can reach 20 home runs, but will most likely range around 15 to 17. He will turn 29 in July, but still in his prime and worth drafting between rounds 13-16.
Next: No. 7: Matt Wieters
From 2011 to 2013, Matt Wieters hit at least 20 home runs and 68 RBI. The 2012 season might be his best so far, 23 home runs and 83 RBI. The last two seasons were riddled with injuries. He underwent Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2014 and missed the rest of the season. He began the 2015 season on the DL as he was still recovering.
He returned on June 5 and was an immediate impact for Baltimore. He hit three home runs, 10 RBI and .268 in his first 17 games. He finished with eight homers, 25 RBI and a .267 average in 75 games. With Chris Davis returning to the Orioles lineup, Wieters and the rest of the team’s fantasy value goes up.
For what it’s worth, Wieters had a 23.8 strikeout rate and 7.4 walk rate. His 42.8 ground ball rate was the highest since 2012. I do chalk most of this up to injury residue and him shaking off the rust.
Wieters was the ninth catcher drafted last season, and with how my rankings look, it’ll be the same for this season too.
Next: No. 6: Travis d'Arnaud
Travis d’Arnaud may be the biggest surprise on this list. He hasn’t been in the league long, but he’s made an impact in his short time in the majors.
He played 31 games in 2013, but he didn’t do much in that time. The early part of the 2014 season was a struggle as he was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas on June 8. He had a .180 batting average with three home runs and nine RBI. He came back on June 24 and hit 10 home runs, 32 RBI and a .272 in 69 games.
Last season started off badly. He went on the DL with a broken hand and missed 46 games. He went back on the DL on June 20 and missed 32 more games. In just 67 games, he hit 12 home runs, 41 RBI and .268. In the short amount of time, d’Arnaud displayed a great sense of power, contact and plate discipline. He had a .340 on-base percentage and .485 slugging percentage.
d’Arnaud could be a top-five option by this time next year. I can’t do it now because of the injuries. He’s had concussions in the past and broken bones. If you can draft him late enough and he stays healthy all year, you have yourself the steal of the draft.
Next: No. 5: Jonathan Lucroy
Jonathan Lucroy missed 38 games last season with a broken toe. After playing in 153 games in 2014, last year was a bit of a disappointment. He hit just seven home runs, 43 RBI and .264 in 2015. He finished 14th among catchers and 430th overall on the Player Rater.
Lucroy struck out at a higher rate in 2015 than 2014, 15.4 compared to 10.8 percent. His bat didn’t seem to have the same pop last season as it did in 2014. He had a 44.7 ground ball and 29.4 fly ball rate compared to 42.1 and 35.7, respectively.
In order to remain in the top 10, Lucroy needs to play in at least 140 games. While the 18 home runs in 2013 may be the outlier, he could hit 13 and maintain a .280 average. His ADP will be around the 12th round.
Next: No. 4: Brian McCann
The 11-year veteran is still raking. After nine years with the Atlanta Braves, Brian McCann spent the last two seasons with the New York Yankees. Between the two teams, he has eight consecutive 20-home runs seasons and nine such seasons in the last 10 years.
Since joining the Yankees, he has 49 home runs, 169 RBI and a .232 batting average. His strikeout rate went up almost four percent from 2014 to 2015, but so did his walk rate which helped his .320 on-base percentage. The short right-field fence has been very favorable to the left-handed hitters and McCann is taking advantage of it.
He averaged a 42.8 fly ball rate in eight full seasons with the Braves. He averages a 46.2 FB rate in two seasons with the Yankees. He’s remained healthy since joining the Yankees and is a constant in that lineup. If you can deal with the low batting average, then McCann’s power numbers are worth drafting around Round 10.
Next: No. 3: Kyle Schwarber
The stroy throughout all last season was if Kyle Schwarber would reach the 20-game minimum to be eligible at catcher. He ended the season at 20 games. In 69 total games, he hit 16 home runs, 43 RBI and .246/.355/.487 line. He walked 36 times in 273 plate appearances, 13.2 percent.
Schwarber spent the rest of the season as the team’s left fielder, which means he has double eligibility. If you can get a top-five catcher and Schwarber as an outfielder could be an interesting strategry. I’m just nervous that if he does play in left field again this year, it could be an injury concern. While catchers do get hurt behind the plate, he could pull or tear a muscle running around out there.
With the solid lineup the Chicago Cubs will begin the 2016 season with, Schwarber could be the No. 1 catcher drafted. I think he’ll be a little overrated, but I have him at No. 3 so what does that say? With only half of a season under his belt, I don’t know what to expect from Schwarber. In a full season, he could hit 25 home runs with a .255 average.
Next: No. 2: Russell Martin
How much does a player’s location affect his fantasy value?
The second former Yankees’ catcher had a career season, especially in the power department, in his first year with Toronto. Russell Martin posted his first 20-home run season since 2012. While the speed numbers have declined, only four steals, he is a power hitter. His 77 RBI and .458 slugging percentage are the highest since 2007.
Martin spent most of the 2015 season hitting in the No. 6 spot, behind Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. In that spot, he had a .243 average with 14 homers and 47 RBI in that spot. He has the potential for another 20-home run season and .250 average. If you are looking for a more well-rounded catcher, then Martin may not be the one you want. However, if you are looking for some late power, then he’s your guy.
Next: No. 1: Buster Posey
Well, this was obvious, wasn’t it?
I wrote about Buster Posey‘s dominance atop the catcher rankings and if he will lost the No. 1 spot in November. He is still the top catcher, but there are others I feel are worth waiting on that can get you similar results.
But what makes Posey the top guy?
He’s played in at least 147 games in the last four seasons, hitting an average of 20 home runs and 90 RBI with a .215 batting average. He finished as the best catcher last year and No. 47 overall on the Player Rater. No other catcher finished in the top 150.
Posey has not struck out 100 times in a season, 96 was the most in 2012. His 1.08 BB/K ratio was the third-best in the league, according to Fangraphs. His plate discipline is something to watch. He has a 30.7 O-swing and a 79.2 O-contact percentage. He doesn’t swing at many pitches out of the zone and when he does, he makes good contact.
Posey can hit 20 home runs and .310 again this season. I won’t draft Posey in my leagues, but I can’t blame you if you do.
Next: Wrap Up
Like I said, Posey as the No. 1 catcher was obvious. He’s been the most consistent option for years, but I made the case that it may not be for longer. There are some players that could make the move into the top five and some that could fall out of it. The No. 15 catcher can easily move up into the top eight and vice versa.
It will be interesting to see how early owners reach for Posey, Schwarber or another catcher. I’ll be waiting for the middle of the draft to get my catcher. With only one catcher ranked in the top 50 and two in the top 100, it’s not the most important to draft in leagues.
Granted, the position is in better shape than years past, but the upside of some of these players is not worth a pick in the top-10 rounds. Some can get you 20 home runs, others will get you a .280 batting average. And don’t even bother looking for speed at the position.
One prediction I have is that McCann will be the No. 1 catcher at the end of the season. The power will project him atop the rankings. Schwarber will be No. 2 and Posey will be No. 3. Just have to wait until October to find out.
How do my rankings check out? Did I overrate a player? Underrate? Let me know in the comments.