Detroit Tigers J.D. Martinez: 2016 Fantasy Projections

J.D. Martinez exploded in his first year with the Detroit Tigers. He stepped it up even more last year. What can you expect from the 28-year-old in 2016?

The Detroit Tigers were one of the best-hitting offenses last year. Despite the struggles from some of their power hitters, the team led in hits and batting average. One of the team’s breakout players was J.D. Martinez. He played well in 2014 and played even better last season. After signing a two-year extension, what more can we expect from him?

Martinez spent three years with the Houston Astros, but never got the opportunity for full-time playing time. The most games played was 113 in 2012. He hit 24 home runs, 126 RBI and .251 in those three seasons. He was then signed by the Tigers to a minors league contract.

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He quickly proved he belongs in the majors after hitting 10 home runs with 22 runs batted in over his first 17 games with Triple-A Toledo. He made his first appearance on April 21. In 123 games, he hit 23 home runs (one shy of his Astros total), 76 RBI and .315 with six steals.

J.D. Martinez was the 37th outfielder drafted in leagues last season in Round 15. That was a steal for whoever got him. His power numbers increased greatly. He hit 38 home runs, 102 RBI and .282 with three steals. The average dropped, but maintaining a .300-plus average. He finished 12th among outfielders and 32nd overall on the Player Rater. He led all Tigers hitters in home runs and RBI, fifth in average and third in OBP.

Hitting .280 with those power numbers is a fantasy owners dream. Of the hitters with at least 38 homers (11 batters), he finished sixth in batting average. Even though he struck out 178 times, because of the increased gameplay, his strikeout rate only increased 0.8 percent. He also walked 1.8 percent more than 2014.

His batted balls also improved. In 2014, he had a 40.5 ground ball and 36.8 fly ball rate. Last season, he had a 34.2 ground ball and 43.5 fly ball rate, almost a flip of the two numbers. J.D. Martinez made about the same contact on the ball between 2014 and 2015, but the fly balls had a little more pop to them last year. Comerica Park was 26th in terms of home runs, but he hit 20 of his 38 homers at home. As a team, the Tigers hit more home runs on the road, 69 to 82.

Next: Miami Marlins 2016 Fantasy Preview

On a team with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez is looking like the best hitter on the team. The other two have dealt with injuries and the other Martinez is losing to Father Time. I don’t expect J.D to reach 40 home runs, but to hit in the mid-30s with over 100 RBI. He isn’t a speed guy, but he doesn’t need to be. He will get his value from power and contact. He will be near the top 10 of my outfielders, but can easily finish in the top five.

Projections: 165 hits, 32 home runs, 103 RBI, .282 average

Draft: Round 4