Fantasy Baseball 2016 First Basemen Rankings 20-11

The pool of first basemen has grown over the last few seasons with a mix of young and veteran talent. Where do they all rank? Here are numbers 20 to 11.

Other positions: Catcher (10-1)

The first base position is one of the deepest in the league. The position has seen an uptick in fantasy stars over the last couple of years. There are some great power hitters all throughout the rankings. I think selecting a top first baseman early in your draft is important. While there are those you can wait a bit on, the level of production drops off significantly. With standard leagues using a first baseman and corner infielder, I rank the top 20 first basemen. This article features those ranked 20 to 11.

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I use a couple of different of criteria when developing my rankings. I look at their 2015 performance, where they finished on the Player Rater, their career performance and if this past season was an outlier, their surroundings (lineup support) and where I think they project this season. Some of it may be subjective, especially the projections, but I try to keep it in line with other fantasy sites.

The stats I use for the projections are runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. I know there are leagues that use OBP or OPS instead of average, but they are in the minority. I will keep it for the majority that use ESPN standard five categories. I do factor in hits though because it more or less affects average (or OBP).

Before we gert started, here are three first basemen worth mentioning. These three players are eligible at other positions.

Wil Myers: Also eligible as an outfielder, Myers struggled in his first season with the San Diego Padres. After winning American League Rookie of the Year in 2013, it’s been downhill from there. He did miss some time in 2015 to remove a bone spur. However, Myers did improve from 2014 eight HR/29 RBI/.253 in 60 games. He then played more first base when he returned. If he can stay healthy, he is a late-round flyer as an OF4 that can fill in at first base when needed.

Mark Trumbo: Trumbo is also available to play outfield. As a member of the Los Angeles Angels, he crushed 95 home runs and 282 RBI in three seasons. He hit 23 homers in one and a half seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was then traded to the Seattle Mariners. He hit 13 home runs and .263 in 96 games. Trumbo will now play the 2016 season with the Baltimore Orioles, joining Adam Jones and Chris Davis in the hitter-friendly American League East. He’s a top-200 player with great power potential.

Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez bounced back in the 2015 season. He hit 18 HR/56 RBI/.231 in 122 games in 2014. Last season, he hit 27 HR/77 RBI/.243 in 150 games. While his strikeout rate was a little high, 26.7 percent, he did walk 48 times, 9.8 percent. He just turned 29, and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup was one of the best hitting lineups in the league last season, which will help Alvarez’s numbers this season. He’s a late-round flyer.

Here are the first basemen ranked No. 20 to No. 11

Next: No. 20: Ryan Zimmerman

The last couple of seasons have been a struggle for Ryan Zimmerman. The abundance of shoulder injuries forced the Nationals to move Zimmerman from third to first. He’s played a collective 156 games, hitting 21 home runs, 111 RBI and .261. We’re not that far removed from Zimmerman playing 147 games and hitting 26 HR/79 RBI/.275 in 2013.

While it may be a risk, he can still hit 20-plus home runs and hit .250. He’s kept his strikeout rate under 20 percent for most of his career. Zimmerman can still make good contact with the ball. He had a 35.0 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate. He is very patient at the plate, 28.4 O-swing percentage and 8.5 walk rate. However, he did see an increase in his ground ball rate, 44.7 percent in 2013 and 48.4 percent in 2015.

With the explosion of Bryce Harper and the acquisition of Daniel Murphy, the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to prevent another collapse. Having a healthy Zimmerman is another thing the Nationals need to prevent that. He is a big risk, but holds a high reward if drafted. A 15 HR/60 RBI/.260 line is something to expect in 2016.

Next: No. 19 Adam Lind

After spending most of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays, Adam Lind was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. In 953 games, he hit 146 home runs, 519 RBI and .273. His best season came in 2009 when he hit 35 homers, 115 RBI and .305. It was his last season as a full-time outfielder. In his first season and only with Milwaukee, he played in 149 games, the most since 2010, and hit 20 home runs, 87 RBI and .277. He finished as the 12th-best first baseman on the Player Rater.

At the beginning of December, Lind was traded to the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have been loading up on big-name power hitters over the past few seasons, bringing in Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz previously and now Lind. Lind has only played 23 games at Safeco Field. He has five home runs, 15 RBI and a .282 average in those games.

Lind has a career 18.8 strikeout rate, but just a 7.9 walk rate. Last season was a big improvement in both categories. He had a 17.5 strikeout and 11.5 walk rate. It was the first time in his career his walk rate was above 10 percent. The negative is that his ground ball rate has been above 45 percent in three of the last four seasons. Safeco Field is not known as a hitters’ park, but Cano and Cruz make it work. Lind should have some success hitting behind them.

Next: No. 18 Justin Bour

Justin Bour is one of my breakout players for the 2016 season. I wrote about Bour at the end of last season. He was someone I suggested to pick up when injuries kept piling up for the first basemen. In his first full season, he hit 23 home runs, 73 RBI and .262 in 129 games. He was named National League Rookie of the Month in September, hitting nine homers, 25 RBI and .290 in 26 games.

I’m not sure if it was nerves or not, but Bour was a little too free-swinging at the plate. He had a 22.6 strikeout rate and just a 7.6 walk rate. He swung at 34.1 percent of the pitches outside the strike zone, T-69 for those with at least 400 plate appearances. Bour needs to keep his bat on his shoulder a lot more this season or else he’ll be a Chris Carter-type player and that holds little fantasy value.

The return of Giancarlo Stanton should help Bour and the rest of the Miami Marlins. The team has some great pieces and could be a dangerous lineup in the National League East, as long as they all stay healthy. With Stanton out, Bour spent most the season as the cleanup hitter, but expect him to move back to No. 5 or 6 this season. I project a 22 HR/73 RBI/.266 season and drafted between rounds 18 and 20.

Next: No. 17 Byung Ho Park

Talk about a lot of question marks, Byung Ho Park is a big one. The Korean slugger signed a four-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are a team in need of another slugger and new first baseman. The team had three hitters with over 20 home runs, but not of them hit over .250. Also, with the injuries to Joe Mauer, the Twins are looking for a young replacement.

The beginning of his career was a struggle. In four seasons with the LG Twins, he hit 24 home runs, 81 RBI and .191. He was traded to the Nexen Heroes and things changed for the better. From 2012 to 2015, he hit 170 home runs (52 and 53 in the last two seasons), 490 RBI and .315. He never posted a slugging percentage under .561 in those four years.

Many experts have compared him to Mark Reynolds, but until he faces major-league pitching this is all speculative. Also, the successful transition of Jung-Ho Kang gives promise to what Park can do in 2016 and beyond.

Again, that is assuming Park can hit the same pitching Kang did in 2015. I don’t expect him to hit 50 home runs, 40 home runs or even 30. I’m tempering my expectations to a modest 25 home runs, 75 RBI and a .265 average.

Next: No. 16 Mitch Moreland

Mitch Moreland had a great comeback season last year. After playing in just 52 games in 2014, he played in 132 in 2015. He tied his career high with 23 home runs and had a career-high 131 hits, 85 RBI with a .278/.330/.482 line. He tied Prince Fielder in home runs and finished behind him in RBI. Moving Fielder to the DH spot gave Moreland more playing time and he deserved it.

Moreland had improved his plate discipline as well. His strikeout rate dropped 1.7 percent while maintaining a 6.2 walk rate. He also decreased his swing percentage at pitches out of the strike zone while playing in 80 more games. I won’t compare his hard hit rate in 2014 because of the small sample size. Comparing it from his 2013 season when he played in 147 games, his hard hit rate dropped just 1.1 percent.

The ESPN consensus rankings have Moreland as the 26th first baseman. I obviously rank him a little higher than that. The Texas Rangers offense is one of the best all-round offenses in the league. Although some hitters struggled, it’s a new year and I expect Moreland and the rest of the team to compete for the American League West title again. Moreland could reach 20 home runs, 68 RBI and .260 in 2016.

Next: No. 15 Carlos Santana

Catcher-turned-first baseman Carlos Santana had a disappointing season in 2015. One year after hitting 27 home runs, he hit just 19. He was able to drive in 85 batters and hit .231 in back-to-back seasons, though. Santana is a home run-or-bust kind of hitter, which hurts his fantasy value a bit. On the other hand, the move to first base should keep Santana healthy. He’s played in at least 152 games in the least three and four out of the last five seasons.

He’s struck out over 100 times in five straight seasons and over 120 times in the last two. Yet, his 18.3 strikeout rate was 68th in the league among qualified hitters. Santana has also walked over 100 times in the last two seasons. His 16.2 walk rate was fifth-best in the league, according to Fangrapghs.

Santana is my No. 15 first baseman because of the power potential. If I do draft him, I know I won’t be getting a .260 hitters. He can hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 80 batters. As a 17th-round pick, he would be a good corner infielder or plug-and-play when my true first baseman is off.

Next: No. 14 Mark Teixeira

Health has been a big concern for Mark Teixeira. He hasn’t played in 150 games since 2011. However, last season was his most successful since then. He played in 111 games and hit 31 home runs, 79 RBI and .255. His season was cut short after taking a foul ball off of his leg on Aug. 17. He suffered a deep bone bruise and missed almost two weeks with just three at bats thrown in there. It was later revealed he had a shin fracture and was shut down for the rest of the season.

He started the season hot, hitting 14 home runs, 35 RBI and .239 in his first 48 games. As a 23rd-round pick, he was giving his fantasy owners a lot more than what his value suggested. But it ended way too soon. He could have easily hit 40 home runs if he played 145 games.

Teixeira has gotten more patient at the plate in his later years. He had a 0.69 BB/K ratio, the highest since 2011. He had a 25.2 O-swing percentage, 26th among all batters with at least 450 plate appearances. He’s also improved on his ground ball and fly ball rates, 41.5 and 37.3 in 2014 and 38.8 and 42.3 in 2015, respectively.

Teixeira is a great hitter, but cannot be drafted before Round 15. He is constantly missing time, which hurts his trust among fantasy owners. I understand you can’t predict injuries, but you can predict them to Mark Teixeira. Draft with caution.

Next: No. 13 Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda has been a power-hitting machine over the last two seasons, hitting 57 home runs in that span. In 2014, he hit 16 of his 30 home runs and .249 in the second half of the season. As a result, Duda entered the 2015 season as a top-15 first baseman and a 16th-round pick.

He hit 27 home runs, 73 RBI and .244 in 135 games last season. He missed about 16 games after being placed on the DL with a back injury. It was originally a back strain, but it never fully healed and locked up on him during a game against the Colorado Rockies. He hit six home runs and 17 RBI when he returned.

The recent news of New York Mets’ management limiting David Wright to 130 games benefits Duda. Wilmer Flores is currently listed as the backup for both Duda and Wright. With Wright missing at least 32 games, Flores, among others, will have to start in those games, leaving Duda to man first base.

The high strikeout rate, 23.7 percent over the last two seasons, are cause for concern. He isn’t patient at the plate, which is evident by his .249 average between 2014 and 2015. He walks just under 12 percent of his plate appearances, but not enough to offset the 130-plus strikeouts. He is a good low-end first baseman in standard leagues, but I’d look for someone to be the starter.

Next: No. 12 Brandon Belt

The San Francisco Giants are in the middle of a youth movement, starting with Brandon Belt. He’s improved his numbers over the last three seasons. He did miss significant time in 2014 after suffering a broken thumb and a concussion. He hit a career-high 18 home runs and 68 RBI with a .280 batting average last season.

Belt finished 11th among first basemen on the Player Rater. However, there are some negatives about his game. He struck out 147 times, 26.4 percent. While his ground ball and fly ball rates both dropped, his GB/FB ratio rose a little. He continues to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, 30.6 O-swing rate and 78.5 overall contact rate, 9.6 percent less than 2013.

He did increase his hard hit rate by almost 10 percent to 39.5 percent, two percent higher than 2013. That helped him collect 138 hits, including 33 doubles and a five triples.

Belt spent most of the 2015 season hitting behidn Buster Posey, which definitely helps his fantasy values. Most pitchers will likely walk around Posey, forcing them to pitch to Belt. I do like Belt to reach 20 home runs and 75 RBI, both would be career highs. However, his batting average would likely drop to about .270. As a ninth-round pick, you could do a lot worse.

Next: No. 11: Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer is the type of player that you’ll be excited to have the numbers, but the name doesn’t do anything for you. He averages 17 home runs, 82 RBI, 11 steals (but no recently) and .280. Those are great numbers from a second-tier first baseman. He finished No. 6 among first baseman on the Player Rater.

I wrote about his 2016 projections in more detail here. Without the risk of repeating myself, last season was Hosmer’s best season. He hit 18 home runs and 93 RBI and seven steals and a .297 batting average. He finished seventh among first basemen in steals. As a 17th-round pick, he might have been the most improved player from 2014 to 2015.

He is consistently healthy and hits in the middle of a dangerous lineup. The offense doesn’t produce as much power as other teams (three 20-HR hitters and one 100-RBI hitter), they rack up the hits, 1,497 (second in the league). Hosmer contributed 178 of them, 8.4 percent.

I did mention in that article he would be my 10th first baseman, but he officially ranks at No. 11. If he can have another season like the one he did last year, he will easily be in my top 10 in 2017.

Next: Wrap Up

This group of first basemen is an interesting one. All of them, even the honorable mentions, are good. You could rearrange the names on this list and it would still make sense. They don’t pop off the page like the next 10 will, but they will get the job done. Some are better power hitters, while others can make contact and get on base. A few of them can even help with steals.

Most of the names on this list will be better served as a utility, corner infielder or an off-day option. The ones ranked between 11 and 13 could easily be your starting first baseman in a standard league, depending on how you feel about the next 10 names.

The player I’m most excited to watch in 2016 is Justin Bour. The lineup situation and how he performed throughout the season gives me great hope for him. Another one I’d like to see is Byung-Ho Park, mostly because I want to see how he adjusts to the style of play here in America.

This may be the last year worth drafting some of the players on the list. With age and injuries adding up, I’m not sure how much longer players like Mark Teixeira and Ryan Zimmerman will be worth owning. Like I said at the beginning, first base is deep with talent. If you wait and avoid drafting one of the top-10 first basemen, there are those worth drafting later.

The next 10 first basemen was even more difficult to rank, so look out for that. As for this group, where do your rankings differ? Did I miss someone? Overrate a player? Underrate? Let me know in the comments.

Next: Milwaukee Brewers 2016 Fantasy Preview