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2016 NFL free agency: Who will Andre Smith sign with?

By Nathaniel Reeves

Jan 9, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals tackle Andre Smith (71) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 9, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals tackle Andre Smith (71) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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Who will land Cincinnati Bengals right tackle Andre Smith in NFL free agency?

The Cincinnati Bengals’ offense has quietly been anchored by a very good offensive line during the team’s recent run of success. One of the key members of the unit, starting right tackle Andre Smith, is set to hit free agency and should generate plenty of interest, leaving the Bengals with a big decision to make.

Vitals
Age: 29
Notable Stat: 73 starts over seven years
All-Pro teams: 0
Pro Bowls: 0

Contract comparisons

Smith’s career has been plagued by inconsistency, but he can be one of the better right tackles in the game when he’s at his best. At 6-3, 240 pounds, Smith is a very powerful lineman who can be productive in both pass protection and run blocking.

Fortunately for Smith, the market for tackles this offseason is fairly weak, and plenty of teams will be looking for help. Mitchell Schwartz is the only other free agent right tackle who has an argument for being better than Smith, so he should get a fairly healthy contract.

Smith is already the fifth-highest paid right tackle by AAV at $6 million per year, and he is only going to climb up the list this offseason. Lane Johnson’s six-year, $63 million extension will remain the most lucrative contract for a right tackle, but Smith could challenge Bryan Bulaga’s $6.75 million AAV in second.

As Smith is 29 years old with an injury history, he could sign a shorter contract with a higher total guaranteed than some other right tackles.

Estimate: 4 years/$28 million/$15 million guaranteed

Will he stay?

The Bengals would love, of course, to keep a proven offensive lineman around while their window to win is still open, as upgrades at tackle are difficult to find. However, all signs are pointing to Smith hitting the open market and leaving Cincinnati.

Cincinnati has a good cap situation with around $37.5 million of room projected to be available. However, the Bengals have a number of free agent contracts to address this offseason, including Vincent Rey, Marvin Jones and George Iloka.

Perhaps the most telling fact that Smith could be on the way out is that the Bengals selected a pair of tackles in the first two rounds of the 2015 draft. It’s a gamble that either Cedric Ogbuehi or Jake Fisher will be an upgrade over Smith, but the Bengals might be willing to take the risk and get younger at the position while addressing other needs.

If he leaves…

Quite a few teams would be willing to take a look at Smith should he hit the open market, as starting-caliber tackles can be difficult to find in the draft.

The Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans are a pair of teams with plenty of cap space who will invest in some protection for their young quarterbacks this offseason. Another possibility is the San Diego Chargers, who have a massive need at right tackle and will want to upgrade immediately as Phillip Rivers’ career winds down. The Seattle Seahawks will also be in the market for offensive linemen, but have been hesitant to give out free agent contracts to players as old as Smith.

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