Where will Chris Ivory sign in 2016 NFL free agency?
It took six years, but Chris Ivory has finally emerged on the NFL radar as a quality starting running back. After an injury-plagued three-year stint in New Orleans, Ivory was traded to the New York Jets. Over the past three seasons in green and white, Ivory’s carries have climbed steadily, and with the increasing workload has come a corresponding level of production on the ground. 2015 was his breakout campaign, where he established himself as an every-down back that can pummel defenses into submission with his bruising style and quick cuts.
The timing of his emergence is fortunate for Ivory and unfortunate for the Jets. The Texas native has hit his stride just as he enters unrestricted free agency, and should command a lucrative new contract since he’s only just entering his prime.
Vitals
Age: 27
Notable stat: 2015 AFC rushing yards leader
Career rushing average: 4.6 yards per carry
Pro Bowls: 1
Contract comparisons
Running back must be one of the hardest positions to place a value on in football. It’s a critical component of every team’s offense, arguably second in importance only to a quarterback, yet the shelf life for most backs in today’s NFL is only half as long as a quarterback’s — if even that. Marion Barber III, Shaun Alexander, Peyton Hillis … it’s astounding how quickly these and other stars went from being workhorses to glue overnight.
Ivory has dealt with his share of injuries in the past, which might temper the level of enthusiasm he’ll receive on the open market, especially from teams wary of committing big money to a guy that’s only played a full 16-game slate once in six years as a pro. That said, a proven running back who can play every down and still is on the right side of 30 is a valuable asset, and Ivory should cash in.
His last contract put his yearly average at $2 million. He deserves at least twice that, considering Shane Vereen made over $4 million last season with the Giants doing most of his work on third down. A good ballpark would be just above what C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram make with the Saints, but just below top-tier names like LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray.
Estimate: 4 years/$20 million/$10 million guaranteed
Will he stay?
There’s little chance Ivory takes a hometown discount to stay with the Jets, especially considering his history with injuries and the knowledge he has that he might not get a better crack at landing a big-money deal before he retires. New York also has the 10th worst salary cap situation in the league heading into this offseason, so it’s not as if GM Mike Maccagnan has lots of room to spend.
The Jets’ top priorities are sure to be on the defensive front this summer, starting with re-signing stellar defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson and underrated defensive tackle Damon Harrison. The team also needs to make a hard push to retain Ryan Fitzpatrick, who provided uncanny stability at a position New York has struggled to find stability in. Ivory might be seen as the odd man out when it comes time to allocate what little funds are available.
If he leaves…
The
aren’t known for being big spenders in free agency, but they might have to be more active than usual since they don’t have a first-round draft pick this year (penalized in the fallout from Deflategate). LeGarrette Blount is a free agent; Steven Jackson is old and his status with the team is tenuous at best. While Ivory might not be the
name most are attaching to the Patriots
at running back, he actually fulfills a bigger need for New England than Matt Forte would, since the Pats already have Dion Lewis and James White as passing backs.
If Chris Ivory can’t stomach the idea of going to a division rival, he could find any number of other destinations more to his liking. The Dallas Cowboys would be happy to give him the reins to their starting running back job, especially considering the problems they’ve had filling DeMarco Murray’s shoes. Running behind that dominant offensive line would give Ivory the chance to build on his first ever 1,o00-rushing-yard season, and his encore act could be even more impressive — think leading the league in rushing, not just the conference.