2016 NFL free agency: Who will Olivier Vernon sign with?

Dec 14, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins linebacker Olivier Vernon #50 at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Duyos-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins linebacker Olivier Vernon #50 at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Duyos-USA TODAY Sports /
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Where will Olivier Vernon sign in 2016 NFL free agency?

Defensive end Olivier Vernon is coming off another strong year for the Miami Dolphins. As if logging 61 tackles wasn’t enough, Vernon also was good for 7.5 sacks and 11 stuffs in the backfield. He’s a perpetual threat to running backs and an absolute nightmare for opposing quarterbacks at times – just ask Tom Brady after Week 17 last season.

He’s also one of the Dolphins’ biggest free agents this offseason, and they’ll be hard-pressed to retain him given his impressive career thus far.

Vitals

Age: 25
Notable stat: 29 career sacks
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pro Teams: 0

Contract comparisons

Vernon has diligently played out his rookie contract during the past four years he’s been in the league, despite the fact he just recently broke the $1 million mark in yearly average salary for the first time last season. At the time he was drafted in the third round, a four-year contract worth less than $3 million was slotted in, but it now seems criminally cheap considering Vernon hasn’t missed a game and has consistently performed well during his career.

It’s high time the standout edge man cashed in. Everson Griffen’s contract with Minnesota seems like a nice blueprint for Vernon and his agent to work with. Griffen was just a year older than Vernon when he agreed to a five-year, $42.5 million deal that pays him nearly $9 million a year. The two players, both defensive ends, have had similar career trajectories, so it makes sense that Vernon gets something similar this offseason.

Estimate: 5 years/$45 million/$20 million guaranteed

Will he stay?

It’s going to be very, very difficult. Vernon was born in Miami, attended high school in Miami, went to the University of Miami, and has played his entire professional career for the Dolphins. That kind of geographical consistency is unheard of in the NFL (it’s unheard of anywhere), and one has to wonder how Vernon would feel about relocating to a place like Green Bay, Seattle, or New York, strictly from climate and culture perspectives.

The hard truth is the Dolphins might not be able to afford him even if Vernon wants to stay put. Miami currently has less than $7.5 million in cap space to play with, and while that number will change with the ebb and flow of contract restructuring and other players leaving, it’s just not feasible for Vernon to stay with the Dolphins unless he’s willing to take a massive hometown discount – which, frankly, would be a foolish move for a player of his caliber and at his age.

If he leaves…

The New York Giants won two Super Bowls on the strength of their pass rush, but haven’t seemed like their old selves since 2011. Michael Strahan is gone, Justin Tuck is gone, Jason Pierre-Paul is maimed and could also be gone this summer… it’s time to rebuild for Big Blue. A new offensive-minded head coach doesn’t have to mean abandoning what has made the Giants so successful in the past, and Ben McAdoo should make a concerted effort to sign Vernon away from the Dolphins.

If he wants to stay close to home, Vernon could also head north up to Jacksonville. He’d still be staying true to his Floridian roots, he’d be getting a bigger paycheck, and he might even be moving up to a better team. The Jaguars quietly put together a strong season behind improved play from young quarterback Blake Bortles and dynamic receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Head coach Gus Bradley cut his teeth building the Legion of Boom for the Seahawks, and he would surely savor the chance to add a disruptive playmaker like Vernon to his young defense.