2016 NFL free agency: Who will Doug Martin sign with?
Where will Doug Martin sign in 2016 NFL free agency?
Surprise, surprise. The fabled Muscle Hamster of 2012 resurfaced again last year, only under a new, just-as-ridiculous moniker: The Dougernaut. Whatever you call him, Doug Martin proved in 2015 that he’s still one of the better running backs in the NFL when healthy, and he nearly captured the league’s rushing title to prove it.
Martin provided the necessary juice to keep some of the heat off of first-year quarterback Jameis Winston and an otherwise fairly inefficient offense. He nearly tied his rookie rushing mark by rumbling for 1,402 yards last year, and along the way set new career highs in rushing average (4.9 yards per carry) and longest run (84 yards). His touchdown total was still way down from his breakout campaign, but that’s more easily excused when you consider the overall state of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ offense in 2015.
The arrow is indeed pointing up for both the Bucs and for Martin in the future. The only question left is will they stay together past this offseason?
Vitals
Age: 27
Notable stat: was named the most elusive running back in 2015 by Pro Football Focus
All-Pro selections: 1
Pro Bowls: 2
Contract comparison
Martin just finished playing out his rookie contract, a four year deal that paid him about $6.7 million. He was worth every penny in his first and final seasons of that deal, though the middle two years were largely forgettable. Plagued by injuries, Martin missed 10 games in 2013 and five games in 2014, leaving many skeptics in the league to write him off as a one-time flash in the pan.
His resurgence last season came at an opportune time, both for the Buccaneers and for Martin’s wallet, as it’s always a good idea to play your best football during a contract year. It’s perhaps a tad unrealistic to hope for a premier contract that puts him among the top three highest-paid backs in the league, as the injury concerns aren’t quite in the rearview mirror yet – another strong showing across a full 16-game slate this fall would go a long way in helping to put that label to bed. But The Dougernaut deserves some serious dough in free agency; he should easily fall in the top ten at his position in terms of total earnings, perhaps right around what Marshawn Lynch made in Seattle before he retired – albeit a longer deal, given Martin’s relative youth.
Estimate: 4 years/$26 million/$12 million guaranteed
Will he stay?
Martin is undeniably tied with wide receiver phenom Mike Evans as the most important non-quarterback on the Tampa Bay offense. Both players struggled to score as much in 2015 as they had in the past, but that trend can be attributed more to Winston taking his rookie lumps than anything. As long as the Buccaneers continue to trot out a shaky offensive line, it would behoove the team to have a guy like Martin in the backfield they can lean on if the going gets rough for Winston. Martin has already proved he can have great success even without a top run-blocking unit ahead of him.
The Bucs also have the seventh-friendliest cap situation heading into free agency, so they’ll have some funds to pass around. It’d be crazy for the team to let him walk; Charles Sims has shown hints of promise behind him on the depth chart, but not enough to warrant letting the NFL’s second-leading rusher leave at the tender age of 27.
If he leaves…
Any number of teams would pounce on the opportunity to sign Martin away from Tampa. Start with the Detroit Lions, owners of the worst rushing offense in football last season. Martin himself averaged over a full yard more per rush than any one of Detroit’s backs last season. The team released Joique Bell already, Theo Riddick has all of one touchdown over three NFL seasons, and the jury’s still out on whether Ameer Abdullah, last year’s second round draft pick, can be a full-time starter for this Lions offense.
The San Diego Chargers could also desperately use Martin’s talents. The Dougernaut presumably wouldn’t have as hard of a time transitioning from Tampa to San Diego weather as he would going to Detroit, and the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Philip Rivers. He’d easily supplant Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver, and Donald Brown atop the depth chart, though signing Martin would essentially be an admission by the ownership that Melvin Gordon might not be their back of the future.