2016 NFL free agency: Who will Lamar Miller sign with?
Where will Lamar Miller sign in 2016 NFL free agency?
Lamar Miller has now had consecutive respectable seasons for the Miami Dolphins, and as a result should be primed to cash in with a new contract this offseason. The only real question is whether it will be with his current team or a new one, as he is just one of a number of Dolphins players in limbo this summer.
Miller rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2014, and realistically could have done it again last season had he been given more carries. The thinking was that when Joe Philbin was fired, interim head coach Dan Campbell would finally unleash the 24-year-old running back and let him carry the load for the Miami offense.
Not so. Miller had more of a role in the passing game than he had in years past, but inconceivably received 22 fewer rushing attempts than he had the year before. Despite the lack of touches, the former Hurricane still racked up 872 yards on the ground and matched his touchdown total from 2014.
Vitals
Age: 24
Notable stat: Longest run in Dolphins history (97 yards; 2014)
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pro Teams: 0
Contract comparison
With an average annual salary of less than $650K over his first four seasons in the league, Lamar Miller has been a steal for Miami. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans and for Miller’s fantasy owners, he has also been criminally underused thus far, despite his obvious potential to be a true every-down back in the NFL. He’s young, strong, fast, and has soft, reliable hands; in short, he’s everything you’d want in a tailback.
Miller figures to command a hefty sum on the open market. Mark Ingram was 25 when he signed a four year deal with the Saints worth $16 million, and Jonathan Stewart was also 25 when he signed a five-year deal with the Panthers worth $36.5 million. Miller’s credentials and upside have him probably slotted somewhere in between these two contracts.
Estimate: 4 years/$20 million/$8 million guaranteed
Will he stay?
Not with the way he’s been utilized so far. The Dolphins have done everything but force Miller out the door, drafting Jay Ajayi out of Boise State last year and giving the unproven rookie over a quarter of the snaps they gave to Miller in 2015. It’s clear that owner Stephen Ross and vice president Mike Tannenbaum view Ajayi as the future at the running back position, so it’s probably time to let Miller find his own path elsewhere.
If he does leave, it’ll be Miller’s first time playing football outside the city of Miami. Like his teammate Olivier Vernon (also a free agent), Miller was born in Miami, played high school football in Miami, and went to the University of Miami before being drafted by the Dolphins.
If he leaves…
As much as Miller probably wants to be paid what he’s worth, he also has expressed a strong desire to play for a team that gives him plenty of opportunities to show what he can do with the ball in his hands.
The Washington Redskins might represent a good fit. Incumbent starter Alfred Morris is a free agent this summer as well, and many analysts think he could end up walking away from the nation’s capital, which would leave only Matt Jones as a true starter in the Redskins backfield. Jones is another product of the Sunshine State who had an up-and-down year as a rookie in 2015.
Adding Miller to the mix would provide stability at the position and give the team’s rushing attack a nice one-two punch moving forward. Both players are young and hungry, and could provide a foundation for Jay Gruden’s offense while the team figures out what to do with Kirk Cousins.
The Oakland Raiders are another option for Miller if he wants to stay in the AFC. Latavius Murray had a breakout campaign in 2015, but the popular thinking is the Raiders could still use another back to spell Murray and push him for the starting gig. Oakland is also one of the top teams in the league when it comes to available cap space, so the Raiders would have no trouble paying Miller the kind of money he deserves and offering him a long-term deal.