2016 NFL free agency: Who will Reggie Nelson sign with?
Where will Reggie Nelson sign in 2016 NFL free agency?
Cincinnati Bengals free safety Reggie Nelson had one of his best seasons as a pro in 2015. Besides turning in an outstanding individual effort, he also helped anchor one of the better passing defenses in the league. The Bengals gave up their share of yards over the course of the season, but rose to the occasion when it mattered most, and finished as the second-best unit in the league in terms of allowing passing touchdowns (only the Seahawks allowed fewer).
Nelson is an unrestricted free agent and the Bengals have to decide where he falls in the pecking order of offseason priorities. Leon Hall, Adam “Pacman” Jones, George Iloka, and Vincent Rey are all defensive starters that will hit free agency as well, not to mention offensive starters Andre Smith, Mohamed Sanu, and Marvin Jones. In short, the Bengals front office has their work cut out for them over the next couple months.
Vitals
Age: 32
Notable stat: 30 career interceptions
All-Pro Teams: 1 (2015)
Pro Bowls: 1 (2015)
Contract comparison
Nelson finished playing under a four-year contract with the Bengals worth an average of about $4.5 million per year. That’s actually a pretty accurate deal considering where he stands amongst his peers in terms of age, productivity, and durability against injuries.
He was a free agent once before with Cincinnati in 2012, and the team moved fast to lock him up. In return, Nelson rewarded his benefactors by giving the organization about as consistent of a stat line as a team could hope for, averaging 80 combined tackles and four interceptions a season.
While he set a new career-high last season with eight picks, he’ll also turn 33 early on in the 2016 season. While Charles Woodson is living proof that the very best free safeties can play great football even in the so-called “twilight” years of an NFL career, he’s still more an exception to the rule than anything.
It’s unrealistic to assume that Nelson can continue his high level of play for another four years, especially in a league that keeps becoming more pass-happy every year. Something’s got to give – he’ll either get a shorter contract worth a decent bit more, or the security of a longer contract but at a value not substantially greater than the deal he had.
Estimate: 3 years/$24 million/$10 million guaranteed
Will he stay?
The Bengals actually currently have the 10th-best salary cap situation in the NFL, so it’s not as if there’s no money available. The real issue is that many Cincinnati players outperformed their contracts last year, as the team as a whole outperformed most people’s expectations. That’s bad news for aging vets like Nelson and Pacman Jones, who might be seen as less of a priority than locking up a younger guy like Marvin Jones or George Iloka for the long-term.
Dre Kirkpatrick, Tyler Eifert, and Giovani Bernard will all be free agents next year, too, and all three figure to rate higher than Nelson in terms of importance to the Bengals’ future.
That said, there’s a good chance the team finds a way to bring him back on a deal that’s agreeable to both sides. There’s nothing to suggest Nelson wants out of Cincy, and the contracts most other teams would offer him in free agency probably won’t be significantly better than what the Bengals can offer him to stay put.
With some reports suggesting both starting receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu won’t be back next year, that just means all the more cash to commit to keeping Cincinnati’s defense intact.
If he leaves…
There are a litany of teams that could show interest in him. Speaking of Charles Woodson, the Oakland Raiders now have a gigantic smoking crater of a hole in the back end of their defense because of the future Hall of Famer’s retirement.
Though conventional wisdom suggests the Raiders should look to fill the void with a younger player they can develop, they might be better served by bringing in a veteran like Nelson who can provide leadership and set a strong example, both on the field and in the locker room. He’d certainly fill Woodson’s shoes better in those capacities than most of the other safeties on the market and in the draft.
The Tennessee Titans could also be a possible destination for Nelson should he become available in free agency. The team just released their old starting safety, Michael Griffin, at the beginning of February, so there’s a vacancy in the secondary. Griffin made almost twice as much as Nelson did last season and pulled in only one interception during all of 2015. Suffice it to say, Nelson would be a monumental upgrade at the position.