Fantasy Baseball: First Base Preview
As we approach Spring Training, fantasy baseball pundits are assembling their cheat sheets and preparing for draft season. Many things change from year to year, so it is imperative to keep in mind what has happened during the offseason.
This first base preview will focus on fantasy baseball. Here is a little recap of what happened to the first baseman in the offseason. The biggest free agent first baseman was Chris Davis who was rumored to leave Baltimore for the biggest possible offer. However, Baltimore was able to retain him with a 7 year, $161 million dollar contract. Davis has posted big season after big season ever since his breakout in 2012.
Another big storyline that took place over the summer was the Twins’ addition of Korean first baseman Byung-Ho Park of the KBO League. Byung-Ho Park hit 105 home runs last year in the KBO league and expects to play a large role in the middle of the Twins’ lineup. He will, however, have to fight Joe Mauer for playing time, so take a wait and see approach when it comes to drafting Park.
Last season, Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera were some of the top players at the position. Not only did they hit a ton of home runs, but they also hit for some of the highest averages in the league. Both players have seen their teams improve in the offseason. Arizona added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to bolster an already solid staff. Detroit added some more big guns to their powerful offense by re-signing J.D. Martinez and picking up Justin Upton. Both teams’ additions will help decrease the pressure on Goldy and Miggy. They should continue to star as their team’s best player next year.
The rest of this article will help summarize which first baseman will be studs and which first baseman will be duds in the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
Next: Studs
Which first baseman will be fantasy studs this season?
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs: Rizzo is the unquestioned leader on a team that is finally becoming a contender after about six consecutive rebuilding seasons. Not only did the Cubs win 97 games last year, but they also won a play-in game and a playoff series. They have continued in the right direction this offseason with the acquisitions of both Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward. Rizzo had a great season last year. He ranked 6th in home runs and 3rd in RBIs with 31 and 101 respectively. His .278 batting average is also very respectable with a typical power hitter. He also added to his game with a career year in stolen bases with 17. On a team that is bound to improve in 2016, I would expect another career season as a fantasy juggernaut.
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox: On the south side of Bean Town is another superstar first baseman in Jose Abreu. In consecutive seasons, Abreu has hit 30+ home runs, 100+ RBI’s and a batting average of .290+. Abreu is entering his prime at age 29 and should be able to put together a fairly consistent season. As the White Sox’ best hitter, Abreu should also receive a lot of intentional walks, which will help in leagues that give points for walks. According to baseballreference.com, Abreu is projected to hit 29 home runs and 91 RBI’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shattered those marks.
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays led the league in runs last year and have one of the more dynamic lineups in baseball. It’s a pretty good situation when you get to hit behind Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista. Jays’ first baseman Edwin Encarnacion has been awarded that job and he responded in a big way last year with 39 homers and 111 runs batted in. Encarnacion plays in a power hitting paradise. His stroke is about as pure as possible and he should be able to drive in a ton of runs with all of those guys slugging in front of him
Next: Duds
Which first baseman will be fantasy duds this season?
Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Tex had a bounce back year last year at the ripe age of 35, which surprised most fans around the league. Teixeira has been injured frequently over the past few seasons. His batting average went up 39 percentage points from 2014 to 2015. Knowing the Yankees, they will hit a wall like they have so frequently over the years after a solid playoff season. This starts with Teixeira who will probably hit about 15-20 homers and a low .200’s batting average.
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels: Pujols got back on track last season as well with his highest home run output since 2010. Pujols also had a career low .244 batting average. He started his career with ten consecutive .300+ seasons. At age 36, he hasn’t had the same amount of pop as he did early in his career in St. Louis. Although Albert’s power numbers were impressive last year, it is obvious that he isn’t the same player. I think he ends up hitting around 25 home runs with a .250 batting average, which isn’t bad at all. But considering he is a generational talent, these stats are underwhelming.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Outside of Maikel Franco and the Phillies’ deep prospect pool, there isn’t much to look forward to. Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ken Giles are gone. This isn’t your World Series competing team. The Phillies are in the midst of a long re-build and need to evaluate their other options as much as they can. For example, Ryan Howard, at age 36, doesn’t offer them much hope for the future, so they might as well test out a guy like Darrin Ruf who hit 12 homers last year in 268 at bats. Howard had a decent 25 home run season, but it’s not likely that he has as good of a season and with the risk of him losing time to other players, I don’t expect him to be a good fantasy investment.