Zhou Qi Scouting Report: February 2016

Zhou Qi is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft class, because it’s hard to get a true idea of his abilities. The Chinese Basketball Association can be a strange place, one where the game bends to guys with NBA pedigrees and the offenses are anything but consistent. Qi also towers over most of his competition, standing at 7-2, and it’s hard to quantify how much of an impact that has on his strong play.

However, Qi’s a player who’s looked very good in international play before and he is playing a huge role on a CBA semifinal team in Xinjiang. His shot blocking potential is great, and he has shown flashes of being able to shoot from outside. But still, Qi’s stock has dropped recently — he’s fallen from lottery consideration to 24th on the latest Draft Express mock draft. Most of that centers around his physical attributes, which is the primary concern with his game, just like with French prospect Petr Cornelie.

Can Qi overcome his slight frame to compete in the NBA? Or is he another Yi Jianlian?

Offense

Qi is obviously going to have success as a cutter and rim finisher. He’s 7-2 with a nearly 7-7 wingspan, which gives you an advantage scoring even if you aren’t the strongest player. He has good footwork underneath the basket, and he can use his reach to contest rebounds and hit tapbacks on the offensive end. Qi hasn’t had much experience in the pick-and-roll, and it’s a question whether he’s going to be a valuable player in that capacity because he’s not a good screen-setter and he can get bothered inside when he catches and gathers at the rim.

Qi does have a strong post game, though. Even though he’s never going to be able to push guys around like a DeMarcus Cousins or Zach Randolph, Qi has shown really solid skill out of post-up looks. He has a versatile set of turn-arounds, fadeaways, and hesitation moves that can compensate for his lack of strength, and he’s a legitimate threat on the block if he can get position established.

Qi needs to get stronger to survive NBA ball, and one way that he’ll be able to make the transition easier is by continuing to develop a promising perimeter game. Qi has range out to 18-feet, and hitting from there has been a consistent area of his offense. However, this season he’s started to extend his range by taking 14 3-pointers, hitting nine of them. Granted, the sample size is very small and defenders didn’t apply a ton of pressure to Qi from beyond the arc early on because he’s not known as a threat there. But Qi’s looked promising shooting from range this year, and his jumper mechanics are pretty solid. He’s a little slow with his release, but that’s less of a problem when you’re releasing from six inches higher than your average NBA player.

Additionally, Qi has shown the ability to take guys off the dribble and create offense on drives. Against opposing centers, Qi can easily get a step on a close-out and get to the rim, and he has good touch on a floater to get the ball over contact. It would be nice to see Qi get better as a passer — he’s averaging just 1.6 assists per game and turns the ball over on 12 percent of possessions, and a lot of those are from bad passes or forcing the issue. But still, Qi has the makings of a diverse skill set, and he looks to be a guy who can definitely be serviceable as an NBA big offensively, even if he has shortcomings that will prevent him from being a go-to scoring option.

Defense

All Qi has to be is serviceable on offense if he can live up to his through-the-roof defensive potential. Qi’s height, wingspan, and mobility mean he has all the makings of being a game-changing defender in the NBA, and he’s shown that ability throughout this season in the CBA. Qi averages 3.3 blocks per game, and he can make plays anywhere on the floor with his length. Qi’s a master of blocking pull-ups off a pick-and-roll switch, and he’s good at keeping the ball in bounds on his blocks, too, making them useful turnovers instead of flashy spikes.

Qi’s block rate is a bit lower this year compared to last (8.4 vs. 10.7 percent), but he’s been smarter about trying to contest shots when he’s beat and is compensating with slightly more steal opportunities. Qi’s great at getting his long arms in the way of both passing and shooting lanes, and he has the potential to be an absolute havoc-creator at the next level.

Technically speaking, Qi does need some improvement on this end. He can be late in rotating over for help defense, and that leaves him prone to fouling under the basket. Qi also plays the pick-and-roll a little too far forward. While that may be coaching, he can end up late recovering to his man and he leaves himself the potential to get burnt by a quick guard coming off the screen against NBA competition. His shot blocking timing can also be a little off at times, and while this has been negligible in China due to his length, he can’t always get by on just that. Still though, these are all things that are coachable. If those are your major defensive weaknesses at 20, you’re in good shape.

Qi can defend on the perimeter adequately in one-on-one situations, which is useful for him because a natural reaction to his frame is to pull him away from the basket. Because of his mobility, though, Qi is comfortable defending forwards on the outside and defending against the pick-and-roll. He’s good at rotating to spot-up shooters for his age, and he can fight through screens decently on the outside and uses his length to disrupt passing lanes. Add that to his rim protection potential, and Qi should be a plus NBA defender.

Size

Qi is 7-2, but weighs just 209 pounds.

It’s been a theme throughout the draft evaluation process, and will continue to be one into June: How is Qi going to be effective on either end if he doesn’t bulk up?

Qi’s frame manifests itself in several areas. He gets thrown around in post defense and can even get thrown backwards at the rim by strong guards. That’s a huge problem that needs to be addressed, because if he can’t provide a contest through contact, it really limits the impact he can have as a rim protector. He also can end up getting pushed off the block when posting up offensively. More than once he’s been pushed outside of 15-feet from the basket on a post-up, which is less than ideal. And with his current screen-setting issues, combined with his struggles against contact at the rim, he’s basically going to be unusable early on as a pick-and-roll threat.

Qi would be undersized at 229 pounds. He’s going to have to add some serious muscle if he’s going to be a functional center at the next level. Even the lighter guys that play the five, like John Henson and Chris Bosh, clock in at least 25 pounds heavier than Qi does. He doesn’t have the elite quicks of a Dario Saric or Dragan Bender that could let him function as a pseudo perimeter player, either. This is different than Kristaps Porzingis being thin last year. If Qi is drafted and comes over to the NBA immediately, I can’t see him touching the floor until he adds at least 15 pounds.

Overall

The tools are there for Qi to be an NBA player. His length, mobility, and offensive perimeter presence are all useful tools, and he’s impressed against international competition and at the Nike Hoops Summit. But he has some serious question marks, even outside of his frame. NBA executives are skeptical of Chinese prospects, and there’s some question of his long-term medical outlook at his current weight. Even if he’s never had a significant injury, Qi might not hold up to an 82-game schedule in his current spot in development, and he may be a candidate for things like stress fractures and inflammatory knee conditions, which are what ended Yao Ming‘s career prematurely.

Qi has some skills, but he remains hard to project because of his size and the relative lack of scouting on him. Qi seems like a guy who will be pretty decent after some long-term development, and he may be a candidate for the D-League if he comes over. However, that might dissuade him from joining the NBA, and that’s a significant risk a team will take in drafting him.

Overall, Qi seems like a talented prospect, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop a long way on draft night due to these significant concerns.