Roundtable: Which 2016 NBA Draft prospect has the most to prove in March?
1. Which prospect has the most to prove in the NCAA Tournament?
Austin Peters (@apete1993): Skal Labissiere. It seems like we’ve been saying this all season and it may be a broken record at this point, but how far Kentucky goes largely depends on the contribution they get from Labissiere in the tournament. He has played better recently, so hopefully that is giving him some positive momentum heading into the nation’s biggest stage.
Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): Labissiere, for sure. He came into college as the top high school recruit in the country and opened the season at the top of our big board, but Labissiere’s stock has plummeted in a matter of months as he’s been unable to consistently break into Kentucky’s rotation. If his recent performance against Florida can translate for a few games in the NCAA Tournament, Labissiere could find his way back up draft boards.
John Bauman (@bauman_john): Labissiere. He was expected to come into Kentucky and step in right away as the next dominant Kentucky big. Expectations were high, considering Big Blue Nation’s track record with big men — Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein were all dominant NCAA big men at Kentucky and eventual NBA lottery picks. But we all know how the story went once the season started. Labissiere looked out of place from the beginning and while he has shown flashes of potential, he hasn’t dominated like anyone expected.
Labissiere himself hasn’t commented, but there are rumblings that 6-11 freshman will declare for the draft even after a poor freshman season. He needs to have a strong showing in the NCAA tournament to show scouts that he is worthy of a lottery pick. Two or three really good tournament games would cement Lab as a top-8 pick.
Andrew Ford (@AndrewFord22): Diamond Stone. His size enables him to feast on smaller bigs and grab offensive rebounds at a decent rate, but he hasn’t shown a lot of polish. In the post, where Stone does the bulk of his offensive work, he’s slow-footed and his moves are very limited. He goes through guys with his body now, but he won’t be able to do the same at the next level. He’s going to need more than a predictable spin move to score over lengthy defenders in the NBA, especially because he’s so ground bound.
Additionally, whether it’s a conditioning thing or simply a lack of know how, Stone doesn’t establish good rebounding position on the defensive end nearly as much as he should for someone his size. That’s concerning from a guy who does not project to play outside at all in the NBA. Those are major flaws that could hold Stone back from being a lottery pick, especially if he lays an egg on the grand stage of the NCAA Tournament.
J.Z. Mazlish (@jzmazlish): The popular answer here is Labissiere, and while I’d love to go contrarian, I can’t think of a better response. If Labissiere flops in the SEC and the NCAA tournament, it would be hard for any NBA team to justify spending a first round pick on him. If he can manage just a couple solid outings, the hype train could easily catapult him back into the top-10 of this draft. Scouts really aren’t looking for that much from Skal at this point — all he really needs to do is show he belongs on the court.
Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens): Everyone’s going Skal, so I’ll pick the other woefully disappointing freshman in this class and say Chieck Diallo has more to prove. Kansas is going to likely get further in the tournament than Kentucky, and Kansas has had depth issues throughout the season when it comes to consistency. Diallo is a part of that, and getting solid play from him will help Kansas against teams like Duke or Villanova that have very solid wing play down the line. Diallo’s been a disappointment, but he probably has more hope to prove himself in the NCAA tournament. If he can play well, particularly defensively, to help Kansas potentially make a Final Four, he could solidify himself as a lottery pick despite his inconsistent play.
2. Which prospect has the most to lose?
Peters: Brandon Ingram. Duke’s national title defense starts with him. Right now, he is neck-and-neck with Ben Simmons for that No. 1 spot. Simmons probably won’t be playing in the tournament, barring LSU miraculously winning their conference tourney, which means all eyes will be on Ingram from a scouting perspective. If he fades and Duke bounces out early, that could solidify Simmons as the top pick in the public perception.
Stone: Ben Simm…Oh, wait. He’s probably not going to be in the NCAA Tournament? Well, then I’ll keep the Kentucky theme going and say Jamal Murray. I’m not totally sold on Murray as an NBA prospect, but he’s been on a tear for the last month. Still, Murray’s size is questionable and he’s a bit of a streaky shooter. A cold March and I could see his stock slide a few spots.
Bauman: Buddy Hield. He is so much fun to watch and is the closest a college basketball player can be to playing like Steph Curry, but I feel that Hield may have already hit his peak as a prospect. Even if Hield plays out of his mind and leads the Sooners to the Final Four this March, I don’t think he moves much higher than 10 or 12 on many draft boards. The concerns by scouts about his shot selection, age and size are real and help create that ceiling for his draft stock.
Scouts have seen him at his best, shooting and scoring and leading his Oklahoma Sooners to victory. One or two bad tournament games, or even an early exit for the Sooners, will give ammo to those trying to move him down their draft boards. Hield has a lot to win personally if he gets his Sooners to a Final Four, but in terms of his draft stock, I think March is a no-win situation for No. 24.
Ford: Hield. Expectations for him will be crazy high heading into the tournament because of his “man among boys” performances all season. Everybody expects Hield to dominate and show no glaring holes in his game. With the bar set so high, it’s going to be tough for Hield to surpass expectations. If he plays well in all facets of the game during tournament play, that’s exactly what he was supposed to do. If he falters and Oklahoma falls out of the tournament early, then blame will certainly be attributed to Hield. He really has nowhere to go but down after his monster season.
Mazlish: Jaylen Brown has had a scorching last month of college basketball, and Cal has rocketed back into the top-25. Last night, they lost a close game at Arizona, and Brown had his worst performance in quite some time. If Cal gets knocked out early and Brown fails to impress, it will be tough to know if his mid-season surge was more of a mirage than anything. Right now, Brown seems to have become the frontrunner for the No. 3 spot in the draft, but a weak tournament could easily bring him back down into the fluid 3-6 grouping.
Magnotti: Melo Trimble. Maryland has faded down the stretch of the regular season, and a lot of that has been on the back of some poor play from Trimble of late. This draft has a crowded group of late 1st-round level point guards, and if Trimble continues to struggle and Maryland flames out of the NCAA tournament, it’ll put a lot of pressure on him to show well in workouts, or he may fall out of the 1st round entirely.
3. Which prospect could make the jump with a big tournament?
Peters: It seems like someone from the Kris Dunn/Jakob Poeltl/Jaylen Brown/Jamal Murray group could have a huge tournament and separate themselves. All have the potential to be top five picks in the draft this June, and whoever performs better and helps their team go farther might be the guy who locks down a top five spot.
Stone: Iowa State’s Monte Morris. Morris currently projects as a second rounder, but he’s one of the best point guards in the country and has a penchant for knocking down clutch shots like the game winner he hit against in-state rival Iowa in December. If Morris throws a few flashy passes and knocks down a big shot or two, I could see him climbing into the back part of the first round.
Bauman: Thomas Bryant. I really like how he has played in his last few games, especially against Illinois (14 points, 5-5 FGs) and Iowa (12 points, 5-6 FGs). He was a big time recruit who had an adjustment period but is looking better during conference play. I like Indiana in March Madness as a spoiler, and a big reason why is because I like Bryant and think he could thrive on the big stage in March.
Ford: Melo Trimble. It’s his team this year with Dez Wells gone, and he’s had a really strong season for the most part. But he shot horribly from the floor in the month of February, and he hasn’t been the most consistent performer this season. His 3-point percentage is substantially down from 41.2 percent his freshman season to 32.9 percent as a sophomore. That’s somewhat a product of Trimble being forced to create more of his own shots this season, but that doesn’t explain a drop off that vast. He isn’t helped by playing with a lot of slow-footed big men who don’t help make things easy in the pick-and-roll, where Trimble can pick apart defenses. But a strong, well-rounded tournament performance could help him jump up closer to the lottery or even in the lottery.
Mazlish: Purdue’s A.J. Hammons has a good argument for most talented big man in the country, and the Boilermakers might have the best frontcourt in all of college basketball. If they get the right draw, their big man could absolutely lead them on a Final Four run just because a lot of NCAA team’s simply cannot match up with their size. At over 23-years-old, Hammons needs to be truly exceptional to cement himself as a first round prospect, but his combination of size and skill is so strong I could see him busting out in a big way in March. If he overpowers the competition en route to a deep tournament run, look for his name to start popping up in the early 20s of mock drafts.
Magnotti: We haven’t talked enough about how awesome it’ll be to have Oregon State in the tournament this year. The Beavers haven’t made the dance since 1990, and this year they’re probably going to make it on the back of Gary Payton II. Payton does everything for Oregon State, and while he’s a projected second-rounder right now, I feel that that may be due partially to exposure. Payton getting out and going Hulk Mode in a 1st round upset might be enough to propel him into the national consciousness for the draft, and could give him the Shabazz Napier Bump into the 1st round.