Vanderbilt’s Damian Jones would have likely been a mid-late first round pick if he had declared for the 2015 NBA Draft, and it appears he could go anywhere from late lottery to late first in this year’s draft. He hasn’t improved much in his junior season and the Commodores have underwhelmed expectations as a team, but Jones still possesses an intriguing combination of physical tools and skill — last summer he measured at 7-0 in shoes with a 7-2 wingspan and 245 pound frame.
Shooting
Jones is only a 57 percent foul shooter for his college career and hasn’t eclipsed 60 percent in any one season. His poor free throw shooting suggests shooting is a major concern of his, but his live-action performance tells another story. He frequently takes post-turnarounds and mid-range spot-ups in the 18-foot range, and he shoots a solid 43.1 percent on 2-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.
He’s only attempted eight 3-pointers in his NCAA career and shoots a bit of a flat shot, so it is unlikely he will ever extend his range to the NBA perimeter. Even so, he’s not going to completely kill a team’s spacing if he’s alongside another non-shooting threat. Additionally, Jones does a very good job elevating and shooting over defenders even when he’s heavily contested. Things probably aren’t going well if an NBA team is relying on a heavy diet of his midrange jumpers, but his ability to get off decent looks in volume is a plus skill.
Creating offense
Jones has a strong frame for an NCAA big man and he does a good job getting a wide base and creating angles for post entry passes. Once he catches it in the post he likes to attack both with his back to the basket and from the face-up. If he chooses to play with his back to the basket, he does a good job moving his defender but often settles for his shot when it seems like he could continue to back his man down. Instead of powering through his defender to the basket, Jones usually relies on right handed jump hooks or fadeaways. His touch on hooks is rather poor, too — he makes a fair amount due to the sheer easiness of looks he can create, but also frequently bricks them to the side or strong when he’s forced a little farther out.
His physical strength combined with his quickness and leaping ability allows him to make some impressive moves, but his overall post game isn’t that strong due to a lack of fluidity in his movements. He’s a bit robotic in everything he does, and he has no feel for reading the defender and makes what seem like pre-determined moves instead.
His face up game tells a similar story. Jones has the quickness to beat most bigs to the basket and can create some easy looks when he attacks around defenders. However, he doesn’t have a very good handle for a big and his poor body coordination makes him a lot less effective than he could be. He does sport a 27.2 USG% and draws fouls at a healthy rate simply because there aren’t many guys who can match up with his combination of speed and athleticism. At the NBA level, I doubt he will be particularly successful creating his own offense, but he has enough skill to take advantage of some weaker matchups.
One area in which Jones has made noticeable improvement from last season is passing the ball. He nearly doubled his assist rate from 6.2 percent to 11.0 percent, and has started to throw some impressive passes over the top of the defense when he draws doubles. The development in his passing is encouraging, but his turnover rate of 14.3 percent is still sky high. His handle is pretty high and loose — even for a big — and his awareness dealing with defensive traffic is poor. He’s shown that he has some vision this year but will struggle to read and react to NBA defenses.
Finishing
Where Jones is best on offense is catching the ball near the hoop and going up to finish. He shoots a stellar 75 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math. His strength and leaping ability allow him to go up strong around the hoop and there aren’t many college defenders who can do much of anything once he gets the ball near the basket. Whether he’s smacking the backboard on a power layup or emphatically slamming the ball home, he gets off the ground quickly and can’t really be stopped.
His ability to finish around the rim on dump-offs and in transition should easily translate to the NBA, but most important is his ability to finish in pick-and-roll settings. Vanderbilt allows him to screen the ball quite often but rarely runs the type of spread pick-and-roll where they look for him as an option rolling to the rim. He doesn’t have the best hands, but they’re not awful either, and his skill set should allow him to be a great target for lobs and catching and finishing on the roll.
When Jones does screen the ball, he does a good job getting a wide base and dives down the lane with good speed, but he hasn’t yet developed an advanced feel for flipping his screens or reading where the pocket of the defense is that he could dive into.
Defense
Jones has the tools to not just be a good defender in the modern NBA, but a truly elite one. His length isn’t great, but he gets off the ground well enough to come up with some ridiculous blocks and his lateral quickness is special for someone as big as he is. Vanderbilt frequently switches ball screens involving Jones or has him hard hedge because he has the mobility to keep up with and challenge the shots of almost any college guard. In the modern NBA having a center who can semi-comfortably switch onto guards as well as protect the rim unlocks an array of lineup possibilities any team would want.
In practice, Jones mobility and hops allow him to be a good college defender, but his overall awareness on defense might prevent him from ever being a positive defender at the NBA level. For someone as athletic as he is, Jones 6.2 BLK% is a bit underwhelming. Part of the reason he doesn’t block so many shots is because he starts next to a less mobile 7-footer in Luke Kornet and he is more often the one guarding on the perimeter. The other part is that his understanding of help defense and when he needs to rotate to protect the rim is particularly poor. He’ll recover in time to make an effort at a leaping weakside block, but he rarely rotates over and just stonewalls a driver with his size and verticality.
In order to succeed as an NBA big man, you need to be reading the whole floor and figuring out when you need to be attached to whatever action you’re involved in, and when you need to spring into help side. Like on offense, Jones’s general court awareness hurts his impact, but his combination of size, leaping ability, and mobility is a rare commodity at any level.
On the ball, Jones doesn’t have to worry as much about seeing the floor and he is a much better defender as a result. He fights hard for position in the post, and as long as he doesn’t get buried, his physical tools allow him to snuff out most back to the basket or face up attacks. He needs to work on taking better angles when guarding face up scorers and fall for pump fakes less, but he should be able to successfully guard most NBA bigs in 1-on-1 settings.
Conclusion
Jones is one of the more vexing prospects in this draft class. His combination of tools and some skill is basically as good as any single player. Skal Labissiere is younger and had more hype coming in, but Jones has produced better at the college level and — if anything — has better physical tools. However, part of me wonders if Jones’s low basketball IQ and somewhat stiff body movement will hold him back from ever being an NBA contributor. Adreian Payne has similar physical tools to Jones and is an even better shooter, but he has struggled to look like an NBA player because he just doesn’t process the game at that level.
The situation Jones goes to and the type of coaching/player mentorship he receives will have an outsized effect on his career. If he can figure things out on the defensive end and just be a shooter and diver on the offensive end, he’s going to look like he should’ve been a top-10 in this draft. It’s also possible he never plays a meaningful NBA minute for a good team because he just fails to pick up on NBA schemes. For that reason, Jones is one of the 3-5 guys I am most unsure about in this draft.
I tend to lean on the side of upside is most important, so if a team feels confident in their development system, I wouldn’t fault them for grabbing him as high as the lottery. Yet, I wouldn’t want to be the team taking that gamble.