2016 NCAA Tournament: ACC Bids
By Mike Marteny
2016 NCAA Tournament: ACC Bids
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2015 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
We will begin in the ACC because their conference tournament began last night. There are a lot of teams in the ACC that deserve a spot, but how many will get in? Let’s take a look!
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Through the Phog
Big wins are wins against the RPI top 50. Bad losses are to teams under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Locks:
North Carolina (25-6, 14-4, RPI: 8, SOS: 27):
Big Wins: vs. (12)Maryland(89-81), vs. (7)Miami(FL)(96-71), at (18)Duke(76-72)
Bad Losses: NONE
Northern Iowa is the only team out of the RPI top 50 to topple the ‘Heels, but what is concerning is the fact that North Carolina is 3-6 against the RPI top 50. Can that kind of performance really net them a number one seed? It is true that there is no one truly dominant team this year, but I would think that this glaring lack of big wins could keep North Carolina out of a one seed.
However, if they win the ACC tournament, all bets are off. I still think they would have to beat Virginia in the ACC tournament Final to take away the one seed.
Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige are going to be tough to defend for whomever they match up with. Particularly Johnson, who is averaging a double-double on the season. They need to hope for losses by Villanova and Xavier while notching a win over Virginia to get a one seed.
Projected seed: 2
Next: Is Virginia a one seed?
Virginia (24-6, 13-5, RPI: 2, SOS: 6):
Big wins: vs. (10)West Virginia(70-54), vs. (3)Villanova(86-75), vs. (14)California(63-62), vs. (37)Notre Dame(77-66), vs. (7)Miami(FL)(66-58), at (17)Louisville(63-47), vs. (8)North Carolina(79-74), vs. (17)Louisville(68-46)
Bad losses: NONE
The Cavs lost four of their six games to teams between 57 and 80 in the RPI rankings. What really sets them apart is their 8-2 record against the RPI top 50 . They are likely a number one seed so long as they get to the ACC Semifinals.
This is a veteran team that thrives on good guard play and great defense. With four wins against the RPI top ten, they have been tested, and passed with flying colors for the most part. The Cavs are going to be a tough out once again, no matter where they end up.
Projected seed: 1 (Louisville regional)
Next: Where Will Miami Be Seeded?
Miami(FL) (24-6, 13-5, RPI: 7, SOS: 19):
Big wins: vs. (2)Virginia(64-61), vs. (8)Utah(90-66), vs. (17)Louisville(73-65), vs. (18)Duke(80-69), vs. (37)Notre Dame(79-70), at (37)Notre Dame(68-50), vs. (39)Princeton(76-64), vs. (46)Butler(85-75), vs. (49)Pittsburgh(65-63)
Bad losses: vs. (110)Northeastern(77-78), at (120)North Carolina State(69-85), at (124)Clemson(65-76)
Miami’s nine wins against the RPI top 50 could get them a higher seed than North Carolina. The fact that they suffered a 25 point loss in Chapel Hill three weeks ago could hurt them. Still, I have a hard time seeing Miami falling off of the 2 seed line. If they lose to Virginia Tech then maybe, but with their RPI and quality wins, they should be safe. The thing that could hurt them is their three bad losses. Will the committee punish them for that?
Led by Sheldon McClellan, the Hurricanes have four starters that average more than 10 points per game. The one that doesn’t, Tonye Jekiri, if a monster on the defensive is. This is a well rounded team that will be hard to take out come tournament time.
Projected seed: 2
Next: Where Will Notre Dame Land?
Notre Dame (21-10, 11-7, RPI: 37, SOS:38):
Big wins: vs. (9)North Carolina(80-76), vs. (17)Louisville(71-66), at(18)Duke(95-91), vs. (18)Duke(84-79), vs. (23)Iowa(68-62)
Bad losses: NONE
Their tournament resume is pretty impressive. All of their ten losses are to teams in the RPI top 80. They just don’t lose games that they shouldn’t. Taking down Duke again on Thursday afternoon should jump them up to a six seed. If they beat Virginia, they may even wind up as a 5.
The Irish aren’t a particularly deep team, but all of their starters are capable scorers. They all average more than 11 points per game. There are a lot of guys that can beat you. Just ask Duke.
Projected seed: 6
Next: Will Duke Lose A Seed?
Duke (23-10, 11-7, RPI: 18, SOS:7):
Big wins: vs. (2)Virginia(63-62), at (9)North Carolina(74-73), vs. (17)Louisville(72-65), vs. (21)Indiana(94-74), vs. (40)Virginia Commonwealth(79-71), vs. (43)Yale(80-61)
Bad losses: at (124)Clemson
Duke played an impressive 14 games against the RPI top 50, but they only won six of those games. Honestly, their loss in the ACC tournament earlier today could be a blessing for them. The Blue Devils are worn out. They only go seven deep most nights, and the ACC took their toll on them. Their RPI and SOS is high enough that they shouldn’t fall from the ranks of the four seeds.
Now that Amile Jefferson is back to help pure scorer Grayson Allen, this Duke team can hang with, or take down, anyone. Jefferson is averaging a double-double in his nine games played this year, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Duke is going to be a dangerous team as a four seed, and could take down a number one in the Sweet 16.
Projected seed: 4
Next: Is Virginia Tech Going To Make It In?
Virginia Tech (19-13, 10-8, RPI: 84, SOS:50):
Big wins: vs. (2)Virginia(70-68), vs. (7)Miami(FL)(77-62), vs. (49)Pittsburgh(65-61)
Bad losses: vs. (107)Northwestern(79-81), vs. (260)Alabama State(82-85)
The loss to Alabama State is inexcusable, but the Hokies did take down two RPI top ten teams. They also have 20 wins in a major conference. That is usually enough to get them in. For me, their RPI is a little low, but they have won their last seven games. How they play down the stretch plays a crucial role into whether they get in or not. If they take down Miami tonight, they go from a bubble team to a lock, even with the bad RPI. The committee isn’t going to leave a 20 win ACC team out.
Zach LeDay leads the team in scoring and rebounding. The Hokies will go as he goes. This is a pretty deep team that can keep rotating fresh bodies into the game. They could be a dangerous team for where they will be seeded.
Projected seed: 13
Next: Has Pitt Done Enough To Get In?
Pittsburgh (21-11, 9-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 36):
Big wins: vs. (18)Duke(76-62), at (37)Notre Dame(86-82)
Bad losses: vs. (120)North Carolina State(61-78), at (124)Clemson(63-65)
Only two wins against the RPI top 50 is going to hurt the Panthers. Finishing 9-9 in the ACC and winning 20 games in a major conference may be enough, but that RPI is not very good. They also stumbled to a 4-6 finish. They really needed to beat North Carolina to feel good about their chances. They have to pay really close attention to other conference tournaments around the country. If someone steals a bid, Pitt could be NIT bound. The win over Syracuse was likely not enough, especially since the Orange have a better resume than Pitt does.
Projected seed: OUT
Next: What About Syracuse?
Syracuse (19-13, 9-9, RPI: 67, SOS: 37):
Big wins: at (18)Duke(64-62), vs. (22)Texas A&M(74-67), vs. (26)St. Bonaventure(79-66), vs. (37)Notre Dame(81-66)
Bad losses: at (102)Georgetown(72-79), vs. (124)Clemson(73-74), at (237)St. John’s(72-84)
Syracuse lost six of their last seven games, and that doesn’t include the inexcusable loss to St. John’s. The four quality wins are nice, but the committee wants teams playing their best. Syracuse is not at their best right now.
They rallied against Pitt, but still lost the game. They needed that win to have a better chance to get in. The low RPI is really going to hurt them here. Virginia Tech might be able to get by. Maybe even Pitt. But I doubt the Orange do.
Projected seed: 1…..in the NIT
Next: 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Fantasy Preview
Stay tuned for the rest of the NCAA tournament teams, broken down by conference! If you have any comments, feel free to leave them below!