Jamal Murray Scouting Report: March 2016

With the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, it’s time to check in with the team that everybody loves to hate: John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats. While diminutive point guard Tyler Ulis has been the one to rack up all the major Southeastern Conference awards, no Kentucky player has seen his draft stock rise more over the course of the past couple months than freshman guard Jamal Murray.

After beginning the season as a projected high lottery pick, Murray occupied a strange space in draft circles during the first half of the season. It would be difficult to characterize his early season performance as a disappointment, but a combination of somewhat inefficient scoring and inconsistent play as a de facto point guard raised a number of questions about Murray’s fit at the next level. But since the start of conference play, Murray has been on an absolute tear, averaging 22 points in SEC play while helping lead Kentucky back into national contention.

Some questions remain unanswered, but Jamal Murray is starting to look like every bit of the star he was billed as at the outset of the year.

Offense

Kentucky spent the first half of the season plugging Murray into a role that had him sharing primary ball-handling duties with Ulis, before ultimately moving him away from the ball to utilize his considerable skills as an off-ball scorer. This created a unique opportunity for insight into what Jamal Murray is and is not at this stage of his development.

What Murray is not, at this point, is the pseudo-point guard he was made out to be at the beginning of the season. While Murray has good court vision and is certainly a willing passer, he lacks pinpoint accuracy and can be far too loose with the ball at times. He is just not a guy who can run a unit as the lead guard right now without any backup.

What Murray is, however, is a versatile scoring machine who will take every inch of open space you give him. You don’t fluke your way to 22 points per game in the SEC — and incredibly, Murray has increased both his volume and efficiency since opening conference play. To put what Murray has been doing into perspective, he’s currently 38 points away from breaking Brandon Knight’s SEC freshman scoring record despite having played seven fewer games. Watching Murray go to work, it’s easy to see why.

The first thing that jumps off the screen about Murray is his outside shooting ability. Murray is not quite a deadeye shooter, but he absolutely rains 3-pointers, averaging over 7.0 attempts per game and hitting at a clip of 42.1 percent — certainly a healthy rate for a non-specialist. The key is the variety with which Murray has been getting his shots. The freshman is not shy about pulling the trigger with a hand in his face — which sounds like a sugarcoated way of saying he has questionable shot selection, but Murray actually exhibits remarkable restraint when the shot isn’t there. He simply doesn’t seem to get bothered by surrounding traffic. And given the slightest bit of daylight, he will absolutely scorch opposing defenses.

Since transitioning Murray into more of an off-ball role, Kentucky has also utilized far more screen actions to get Murray open along the perimeter. The result has been a massive uptick in Murray’s efficiency from behind the arc. Over the past 10 games, Murray has shot 50 percent from 3-point range and made an average of 4.4 trifectas per game. In the 21 games prior, those numbers were 37.4 percent and 2.6, respectively.

However, Murray is more than just an outside scorer. With a somewhat stocky frame and unspectacular lateral quickness, Murray hardly resembles some of the explosive slashers that have graced Big Blue’s backcourt in recent years. But thanks to a fairly tight handle and deft understanding of spacing, he is able to carve out more than a fair share of success when he penetrates the lane. Kentucky’s spacing has not always created the most favorable of driving conditions (as noted in Rafael’s January write-up on Murray), though Murray seems to have found a recipe for success in strictly taking what the defense gives him.

More specifically, when the defense is set, Murray doesn’t stand a chance of getting to the rim thanks to his relative lack of foot speed. But when his defender is off-balance, trying to close out or rotate or get around a screen, Murray’s crafty array of moves are more than sufficient.

It’s not the most original idea in the world to compare Murray to Brandon Roy, but there really are a number of similarities in the tape. The one key contrast, though, is that Murray doesn’t have the same level of agility and slickness that helped Roy become a multiple-time All-NBA selection during his short career. This is where it’s important to note that Murray only recently turned 19-years-old. Even in the few months he’s been playing under the bright lights at Kentucky, he has looked more and more spry as the season has progressed. There’s no guarantee that simply hitting the weights and continuing to work towards his physical prime will result in him completely erasing his marginal quickness as a liability, but the closer he gets, the more dangerous he will become as a scoring threat at the next level.

Defense

Murray receives a fair amount of flak for his defense, and some of it is justified, but it has everything to do with his physical limitations and nothing to do with effort. In fact, that may be the most frustrating aspect of the Jamal Murray experience. It’s clear that he is firmly engaged and has a sound understanding of defensive positioning. He just doesn’t have the lateral quickness to keep up with quicker guards.

While this has improved tenfold over the past few months — November and December games saw him get blown by frequently, and any use of screens to hinder his efforts were just downright unfair — Murray will likely never be a plus defender. However, if he can continue to improve his mobility, he shouldn’t be a liability at the next level, which is important in its own right.

And while Murray has neither the speed nor the wingspan to be much of a presence in on-ball defense, he is actually quite underrated in terms of team defense. Perhaps as a byproduct of frequently being tasked with guarding relative non-entities, Murray has a tendency to sit back in coverage and try to play safety for the Kentucky defense. He’ll drift as far into center field as he can without overcommitting away from his man and try to fill in as necessary or jump into passing lanes if the opportunity presents itself. Additionally, he demonstrates a firm understanding of spacing and shows good reaction time.

There aren’t a whole lot of sexy clips that showcase his understanding of positioning and intuitive reads on switches, but here are a few plays that show him read and anticipate before the play really develops:

Unfortunately, even when Murray is able to get into proper position to disrupt a play, his relative lack of size and explosiveness sometimes limits what kind of resistance he is able to offer. But with his understanding of positioning and quick reaction speed, it’s likely that he’ll at least be able to offer his team some help on the defensive end, even if he never rounds into much of a defensive stopper.

Outlook

Murray is a 19-year-old shooting guard prospect with decent size, a strong skill set and an excellent feel for the game. At this stage in his development, he is forced to rely more on his perimeter game due to below-average quickness. However, as he continues to develop towards his physical prime, it is well within the realm of possibility that his agility will improve, which would potentially make him a very dangerous scorer at the next level. As is, he is a strong shooter with workable point guard skills and an array of crafty moves to help him get by. Defensively, he will likely never be much better than league average, but he shows a commitment to working on both ends, and his understanding of spacing and team defense could make him an asset.

From a skill set and intangible perspective, he has just about everything you could ask for in a prospect his age. If his body cooperates, he could be a special player.