2016 NCAA Tournament: Big 12 Bids
By Mike Marteny
2016 NCAA Tournament: Big 12 bids
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2015 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Now we tackle what most experts believe was the best conference top to bottom all season long. They are not as top-heavy as the ACC, but there are some very good teams in the Big 12. Who will get in? Who will be left home? Let’s check it out!
A big win is a win against a RPI top 50 team. A bad loss is a loss to a team under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
Kansas (28-4, 15-3 Big 12, RPI: 1, SOS: 3)
Big Wins: vs. (5)Oklahoma(109-106), at (5)Oklahoma(76-72), vs. (10)West Virginia(75-65), vs. (14)Kentucky(90-84), vs. (22)Iowa State(85-78), vs. (24)Baylor(102-74), at (24)Baylor(66-60), vs. (26)Texas(76-67), at (26)Texas(86-56), vs. (33)Oregon State(82-67), at (34)Texas Tech(69-59), vs. (34)Texas Tech(67-58), at (39)San Diego State(70-57)
Bad Losses: at (168)Oklahoma State(67-86)
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The Jayhawks racked up a staggering 13 wins against RPI top 50 teams. No one else comes close. They didn’t lose a home game. Three of their four losses were to teams in the RPI top 25 on the road or at a neutral site. Once again, Kansas has the resume to win a number one seed. They may be the only team that is really comfortable with their number one seed.
This is a tough, veteran team that does a lot of things well. The Big 12 has been arguably the best conference around over the last two years, yet the Jayhawks won their 12th straight regular season Big 12 Crown, and are favorites to win the Big 12 tournament as well.
The strength of schedule and number one RPI ranking say it all. If Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament, they are the top overall seed. If they lose in the Big 12 tourney, they may still get it!
Projected seed: 1 (Chicago Region)
Next: Did Iowa State's Loss to Oklahoma Hurt?
Iowa State (21-11, 10-8 Big 12, RPI: 22, SOS: 6)
Big wins: vs. (1)Kansas(85-72), vs. (5)Oklahoma(82-77), vs. (26)Texas(85-75), vs. (27)Iowa(83-82), vs. (34)Texas Tech(76-69), vs. (35)Colorado(68-62), at (40)Cincinnati(81-79), vs. (50)Chattanooga(83-63)
Bad losses: NONE
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Iowa State wasn’t as dominant as in years past, but they have proven they can beat anyone. At home, anyway. All but one of their losses were to RPI top 35 teams. The only one that wasn’t was a loss to Northern Iowa on a neutral court. Don’t snicker. Northern Iowa beat North Carolina this year as well.
Georges Niang and Jameel McKay are dominant post presences. Niang is an effortless scorer with the ability to shoot from outside as well. Sophomore guard Monte Morris averages 1 points a game and shoots an impressive 49%. The Cyclones will be one of the deeper teams in the tournament. They have a staggering seven players that average double digit points per game. They are going to be a tough team to knock out once again.
Picking Iowa State’s seed could be tough. All of the quality losses and the high RPI should help them stay a five seed. They would be a lock for a four if they had beaten Oklahoma last night.
Projected seed: 4
Next: Has Oklahoma Done Enough To Earn A 2 Seed?
Oklahoma (25-6, 12-6 Big 12, RPI: 5, SOS: 14)
Big wins: vs. (3)Villanova(78-55), vs. (10)West Virginia(70-68), at (10)West Virginia(76-62), vs. (22)Iowa State(87-83), vs. (22)Iowa State(79-76), at (24)Baylor(82-72), vs. (24)Baylor(73-71), vs. (26)Texas(63-60), vs. (34)Texas Tech(91-67), vs. (38)Wisconsin(65-48)
Bad losses: NONE
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Oklahoma beat ten teams in the RPI top 50, and four more from the RPI top 100. They have struggled to keep leads down the stretch at times, but they are a potent team that can shoot the lights out if they are on.
Oklahoma boasts one of the most talented starting lineups in the nation. Buddy Hield is a pure shooter who averages an impressive 25.6 points per game. Ryan Spangler is tough in the post. Khadeem Lattin is an excellent defender. Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard are capable scorers and good shooters as well. The weakness of this team is depth. Rarely do they go more than seven deep. Fatigue often sets in later in games, and this team is prone to prolonged shooting slumps. If they can stay fresh, they are good enough to make a deep tournament run.
They have a ton of good wins and no bad losses. If the Sooners beat West Virginia again tonight, they are likely a two seed. They might be anyway, depending on what else happen around the nation.
Projected seed: 2
Next: Where Will Baylor Land?
Baylor (22-10, 10-8 Big 12, RPI: 24, SOS: 9)
Big wins: vs. (22)Iowa State(100-91), at (22)Iowa State(94-89), at (26)Texas(78-64), vs. (26)Texas(75-61), at (34)Texas Tech(63-60)
Bad losses: NONE
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The thing that separates Baylor is that they “only” had five wins against the RPI top 50. They did beat five more RPI top 100 teams though. The three losses to Kansas will likely hurt their seeding some. All of their losses were to teams in the RPI top 35. All eleven of them! Eight were to teams in the RPI top ten!
Rico Gathers is a force in the middle. He nearly averaged a double double this year, even though his numbers were down from last year. Taurean Prince gave them a presence on the outside this year that made them a more complete team. The three losses to Oklahoma and three more to Kansas will hurt their seeding.
The losses to Oklahoma and Kansas while not bad, will temper their seed compared to the rest of the top of the Big 12. Then again, they did beat Iowa State twice. They may fall as far as a seven. However, given the quality of the losses, I will be very surprised if they are lower than a six. They may even pull a five seed.
Projected seed: 6
Next: Can West Virginia Take A 3 Seed?
West Virginia (25-7, 13-5 Big 12, RPI: 10, SOS: 23)
Big wins: vs. (1)Kansas(74-63), at (22)Iowa State(81-76), vs. (22)Iowa State(97-87), vs. (24)Baylor(80-69), at (24)Baylor(69-58), at (34)Texas Tech(80-76), vs. (34)Texas Tech(90-68), vs. (39)San Diego State(72-50)
Bad losses: NONE
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The win over Kansas will help propel them to a higher seeding than the other teams in the conference that couldn’t beat Oklahoma or Kansas. Their RPI helps keep them a notch above Iowa State in the seeding. All but one of their losses were to the RPI top 50. The one that wasn’t was to 51 Florida.
West Virginia would just as soon knock you out as play basketball with you. Their rugged style keeps them in nearly every game. The only teams able to pull away from them were Virginia and Florida, two physical teams in their own right.
The Mountaineers were supposed to take a step back this year after losing Juwon Staten. No one told them that. Nine wins against the RPI top 50 will help their seeding quite a bit. If they can knock off Oklahoma, they may even take the Sooners’ two seed.
Projected seed: 3
Next: Is Texas Comfortably In?
Texas (20-12, 11-7 Big 12, RPI:26 , SOS: 1)
Big wins: vs. (5)Oklahoma(76-63), vs. (8)North Carolina(84-82), at (10)West Virginia(56-49), vs. (10)West Virginia(85-78), vs. (22)Iowa State(94-91), at (24)Baylor(67-59), vs. (34)Texas Tech(69-59)
Bad losses: at (170)TCU(57-58)
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What does the toughest schedule in the country look like? Texas played 26 games against the RPI top 100, including 13 against the top 25. Part of that is the conference, but they also played North Carolina and Texas A&M out of conference. This is what most people expected from Texas last year. Who thought that losing Myles Turner to the NBA would actually help them?
Cameron Ridley became more of an offensive player this year, but his defensive presence is still immense. Between him and Prince Ibeh, they block a shade over five shots per game. Texas is a frustrating team to play against because of their size inside. They can create matchup issues for anyone.
The loss to Baylor on Thursday night might knock Texas down a notch, but they should still be comfortably in the tournament.
Projected seed: 8
Next: Is Texas Tech Getting In?
Texas Tech(19-12, 9-9 Big 12, RPI: 34, SOS: 7)
Big wins: vs. (5)Oklahoma(65-63), vs. (22)Iowa State(85-82), at (24)Baylor(84-66), vs. (26)Texas(82-74), vs. (30)South Dakota State(79-67), vs. (49)Little Rock(65-53)
Bad losses: at (128)Arkansas(68-75), vs. (170)TCU(62-67)
The five wins against the RPI top 50 could go a long way for the Red Raiders. They are going to have to sweat some because of Michigan’s win today, but I think they still are okay….for now. The loss to TCU in the opening round did hurt, but it isn’t a dagger just yet.
The Red Raiders are a balanced team without any one star. They move the ball well, and have seven players averaging at least eight points per game. The Big 12 made them look a little weaker than they actually are. Depending on where they get placed, they could make some noise.
The nine losses against the RPI top 25(plus 1) holds well for Texas Tech. Their RPI should get them in the field as of now, but there is still a lot of basketball going on this weekend. It only hurts that they aren’t involved.
Projected seed: 10
Next: 2016 NCAA Tournament: ACC Bids
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we keep running down the conferences and NCAA tournament hopefuls! We will also have capsules for the brackets when they come out. We have your March Madness covered!