2016 NCAA Tournament: American Athletic Conference Bids
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2016 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Next we head to the American Conference, which formed when the great Big East split of 2013 occurred. This hybrid conference of the Big East and Conference USA has made some waves in the basketball landscape this year. How many teams will get in to the Big Dance? Can there really be four teams from this conference with SMU on a postseason ban? Let’s find out!
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
Big 12
Temple (20-10, 14-4 American, RPI:57, SOS: 62):
Big Wins: vs. (11)SMU(89-80), at (38)Cincinnati(77-70), vs. (38)Cincinnati(67-65), vs. (50)Tulsa(83-79)
Bad Losses: at (147)Memphis(65-67), at (201)East Carolina(61-64)
The win over SMU could be huge for Temple. They won the regular season AAC crown, but they are not a lock to get in. In fact, no AAC team can really be considered a lock right now. Depending on what happens in other conference tournaments, they may only get one team in. Saying Temple needs to at least make the AAC Championship game is not a stretch. They may even have to win it.
The two bad losses could hurt. They got a huge win over SMU, but will it be enough?
Projected seed: 10; if they lose before the AAC Final: OUT
Next: Can Cincinnati Still Get In?
Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6 American, RPI: 40, SOS: 74)
Big Wins: vs. (11)SMU(61-54), at (40)Virginia Commonwealth(69-63), vs. (50)Tulsa(76-57)
Bad Losses: at (147)Memphis(59-63)
Cincinnati has the best chance at an at-large bid out of any of the AAC teams with SMU banned from postseason play. They have a win over SMU, and only one bad loss. Their RPI is also good enough on it’s own.
They shouldn’t be penalized for the epic four overtime loss to Connecticut this afternoon, but that does muddle the picture for some other teams going into the weekend.
The Bearcats rely on stifling defense (7th in the nation in points allowed), the playmaking ability of Troy Caupain, and the shooting of Gary Clark from deep. This team is still built like a Bob Huggins team even though he hasn’t been there for a decade.
Projected seed: 11
Next: Is Houston Out With The Loss To Tulane?
Houston (22-9, 12-6 American, RPI: 74, SOS: 126)
Big Wins: vs. (11)SMU(71-68), vs. (40)Cincinnati(69-56), vs. (47)Tulsa(81-66)
Bad Losses: vs. (225)South Florida(62-71), at (112)Rhode Island(57-67), vs. (244)Tulane(68-71)
Houston’s two bad losses, well three now, are going hurt. The loss to Tulane in the AAC Tournament likely lands Houston in the NIT. The one big win over SMU only goes so far.
The poor RPI and strength of schedule is going to hurt the Cougars. This is a team heading in the right direction though. However, they at least needed to make the AAC final to make an impression on the committee.
Projected seed: OUT
Next: How Good Are Tulsa's Chances?
Tulsa (20-10, 12-6 American, RPI: 47, SOS: 52)
Big Wins: at (11)SMU(82-77), vs. (40)Cincinnati(70-68), vs. (46)Wichita State(77-67)
Bad Losses: at (147)Memphis(82-92), vs. (150)Oral Roberts(68-70)
The three wins against the RPI top 50 are nice, but how much is the committee going to put in to beating SMU this year? All of the top teams in the AAC did at least once this year. Their problem is their lower RPI. Its tough if you aren’t in a major conference to get an at large with an RPI near 50.
James Woodard, the brother of Oklahoma PG Jordan Woodard, is cut from the same mold. He is a good shooter from outside, and leads the team in scoring. Senior G Shaq Harrison is an all-around threat. He leads the team in assists, and is second in points and rebounds. Tulsa is a little undersized, but they are a solid all around team.
Tulsa needs to advance to at least the AAC Final to get it. It likely will come down to them or Temple. If they can knock out Temple in the AAC final, they will get in. If they end up against Connecticut in the AAC final, they may still get in since they advanced farther than Temple. The bad part is that UConn could take their bid.
Projected seed: OUT….for now. any loss before the AAC Final and they are out. If they win the AAC, they are likely (11)play-in
Next: Did UConn Play Their Way In?
Connecticut(22-10, 11-7 American, RPI: 59, SOS: 57):
Big wins: vs. (11)SMU(68-62), at (26)Texas(71-66), vs. (47)Tulsa(75-73), vs. (40)Cincinnati(104-97)
Bad losses: NONE
It’s a little surprising that Connecticut’s RPI is this low. They have a bigger out of conference win than any of their AAC counterparts (Texas). They also beat a Michigan team that is still on the bubble. They beat Ohio State too! The relative weakness of Michigan and Ohio State is hurting the Huskies, but all of their losses were to teams in the top 75 of the RPI. That puts them ahead of everyone else in the AAC in that respect too.
The Huskies lack a superstar, but they are a well rounded team. They have four players averaging more than 11 points per game. They have a few guys that can beat you.
The win over Cincinnati puts them back in the discussion, but I still think they need to beat Temple to ensure a spot. The RPI doesn’t tell the whole story. I have UConn ahead of Temple and Tulsa right now. The committee likely does as well.
Projected seed: (11)play-in
Next: 2016 NCAA Tournament: Big 12 bids
Stay tuned for more conference by conference NCAA tournament picks! We will cover all of the tournament hopefuls, and have the mock seeding up before the brackets are unveiled!