2016 NCAA Tournament: Big Ten bids
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2016 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Big wins are wins against the RPI top 50. Bad losses are against RPI under 100. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Scarlet and Game
Who will make it in from the ultimate oxymoron, the Big Ten? You know, the conference that has 14 teams? All kidding aside, the Big Ten was strong again this year, but maybe not as strong as last year. That has caused some teams to be overlooked. Here we will dive in further to see who should get their ticket punched, and who could miss out.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
A-10
American
Big East
Big 12
Indiana (25-7, 15-3 Big Ten, RPI: 22, SOS: 86)
Big Wins: vs. (13)Maryland(80-62), vs. (16)Purdue(77-73), at (28)Iowa(81-78), vs. (28)Iowa(85-78), vs. (33)Notre Dame(80-73), vs. (40)Wisconsin(59-58)
Bad Losses: at (119)Penn State(63-68), vs. (147)UNLV(69-72), vs. (156)Wake Forest(78-82)
Go Joe Bruin
The regular season Big Ten champions had a solid year. Adding a win over Notre Dame out of conference should help. The three bad losses are high for a team looking for a good seed. That could hurt the Hoosiers.
Sophomore James Blackmon and Senior Yogi Ferrell are a great guard duo. Blackmon has been better than advertised, and Ferrell is one of the better passers in the conference and still averages 17 points per game. The Hoosiers are a little small on the interior, and that cost them against teams like Wisconsin, Maryland, and Iowa. That said, this is a fast-paced team that averages 82.3 points per game. They shoot pretty well and they are athletic enough to not get dominated on the boards.
The Hoosiers lack the truly big wins that would land them one of the top eight seeds in the tournament, but I wouldnt want to face them in the Sweet 16. These guards can cause big matchup problems, especially for upset-minded small schools.
Projected seed: 4
Next: How Does It Look For Wisconsin?
Wisconsin (20-12, 12-6 Big Ten, RPI: 40, SOS:15)
Big Wins: vs. (14)Michigan State(77-76), at (13)Maryland(70-57), vs. (22)Indiana(82-79), at (28)Iowa(67-59), vs. (41)Virginia Commonwealth(74-73)
Bad Losses: at (110)Marquette(55-57), vs. (104)Georgetown(61-71), at (111)Northwestern(65-70), vs. (163)Nebraska(58-70), vs. (178)Wisconsin-Milwaukee(67-68), vs. (262)Western Illinois(67-69)
Saturday Blitz
The Badgers had a whole slew of bad losses. Like more than any other major conference team looking for an at large bid. That could hurt them. It has already drug down their RPI into dangerous territory.
The Badgers had issues trying replace Frank Kaminsky. Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig became the leaders of the team this year. The Badgers aren’t as big and athletic as they were last year. They need to slow down games and keep them under control to win this year.
All of those bad losses are going to hurt. Especially the way they lost to Nebraska in their first game of the Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin did play a tough schedule, but they didn’t really make it work for them. Still, they won 20 games in a good conference. Will it be enough?
Projected seed: 11
Next: Does Maryland Deserve A Three Seed?
Maryland (24-7, 12-6 Big Ten, RPI: 13, SOS: 41)
Big Wins: vs. (16)Purdue(72-61), vs. (28)Iowa(74-68), vs. (39)Princeton(82-61), at (40)Wisconsin(63-60), vs. (45)Connecticut(76-66)
Bad Losses: at (255)Minnesota(63-68)
Terrapin Station
The win over UConn keeps looking better and better as Connecticut keeps making their case for a tournament berth. Every loss but Minnesota was to teams in the RPI top 60. They have done enough to earn a good seed, but how good?
Maryland is led by super-sophomore Melo Trimble. Melo led the team in points and assists. The rest of the starters also average double digit points per game. This is a good shooting team that will work the clock to get a good shot. A shot that anyone can take.
They played Michigan State really tough in the Big Ten semifinals today. Was it tough enough to get them a three seed? Probably.
Projected seed: 3
Next: Is Michigan State Getting A One Seed?
Michigan State (28-5, 13-5 Big Ten, RPI: 14, SOS: 65)
Big Wins: vs. (1)Kansas(79-73), vs. (13)Maryland(74-65), vs. (17)Louisville(71-67), vs. (22)Indiana(88-69), vs. (38)Providence(77-64), vs. (40)Wisconsin(69-57)
Bad Losses: vs. (163)Nebraska(71-72)
Spartan Avenue
The Spartans once again played a hard non conference schedule. They took down Kansas, Providence, and Louisville out of conference, which makes up for the relative lack of strength in the Big Ten. There were more average teams in the conference this year than usual.
This team has all of the traits of a Tom Izzo team. They are a terrific passing team, averaging over 20 assists per game. They shoot well, and they rebound well. Most importantly, they play well as a team. Denzel Valentine is the leader of the team. He averaged nearly 20 points, 7.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game. There is a reason he is a player of the year candidate. The Spartans seem poised for a deep tournament run.
The Villanova loss in the Big East Tournament likely opens up a number one seed for Michigan State, even if they lose to Purdue tomorrow. They better hope they do, otherwise they will be a two seed in Kansas’s regional.
Projected seed: 1
Next: How Bad Does Iowa's Loss To Illinois Hurt?
Iowa (21-10, 12-6 Big Ten, RPI: 28, SOS: 31)
Big Wins: at (14)Michigan State(76-59), vs. (14)Michigan State(83-70), at (16)Purdue(70-63), vs. (16)Purdue(83-71), vs. (46)Wichita State(84-61)
Bad Losses: at (119)Penn State(75-79), vs. (148)Illinois(66-68)
Saturday Blitz
The Hawkeyes owned Michigan State and Purdue this year, but that loss to Illinois might hurt them. And it isn’t just the Illinois loss. It’s the fact that the Hawkeyes have only won four of their last ten games. That will hurt their bottom line.
Jared Uthoff down low can be tough for other teams to deal with. He is an accomplished scorer and rebounder. The inconsistent guard play has played a large role in the Hawkeyes sputtering some during conference play. Peter Jok has been a very good player on the outside, but the Hawkeyes have holes, as you can see by their last ten games.
The RPI is good enough for Iowa to be as high as an eight seed. Will they end up there? I doubt it. Stumbling down the stretch has been punished by the committee in the past. Their last big win was on January 24th.
Projected seed: 10
Next: Where Will Purdue Be If They Win Tomorrow?
Purdue (26-7, 12-6 Big Ten, RPI: 16, SOS: 45)
Big Wins: vs. (13)Maryland(83-79), vs. (14)Michigan State(82-81), vs. (40)Wisconsin(91-80), at (40)Wisconsin(61-55)
Bad Losses: at (148)Illinois(70-84)
Betsided
Purdue’s other six losses were to teams in the RPI top 60. They don’t hold any big OOC wins, but the ones in conference will do enough to help their cause. They are in for a decent seeding.
A.J. Hammons is a force on the inside. He is the leading scorer and rebounder on the team. but the Boilermakers aren’t totally built on girth. Raphael Davis is a good passer and can run the offense. The whole team passes well, shoots pretty well, and their athleticism makes them good rebounders. They aren’t going to give anything away.
Purdue really has been given a pass through the Big Ten tournament. Illinois knocked off Iowa, and Michigan took care of Indiana, so the Boilers only had to take out the 12 and 8 seeds to make it to the final. That said, they did beat the Spartans at home earlier this year, and the game is in Indianapolis. With a win Purdue might snag a four seed. Otherwise, they are on the five line, which usually isn’t a great place to be.
Projected seed: 5
Next: Should Ohio State Get In?
Ohio State (20-13, 11-7 Big Ten, RPI: 72, SOS: 39)
Big Wins: vs. (11)Kentucky(74-67), vs. (28)Iowa(68-64)
Bad Losses: vs. (121)Louisiana Tech(74-82), vs. (140)Memphis(76-81)
Scarlet and Game
The huge win over Kentucky has probably kept the Buckeyes buoyant longer than it should have. This team only has three wins over the RPI top 50. Three. Sure, 11 of their losses were against the RPI top 100, but do you really want a team in there they can’t beat proven teams? I would much rather see a mid-major with a much better RPI that is hungry to be there.
The Buckeyes aren’t nearly as explosive as last year, but they are a balanced team. Keita Bates-Diop and Jae’Sean Tate are tough to defend. The outside shooting of Kam Williams can keep them in just about any game.
Yes, they have the 20 wins in a major conference, but their quality of wins is the worst of any tournament hopeful team. If there is any justice, they won’t get in. You need to win more big games than that. Three against the RPI top 100 is not enough.
Projected seed: OUT
Next: What About Michigan?
Michigan (22-12, 10-8 Big 10, RPI: 56, SOS: 50):
Big wins: vs. (13)Maryland(70-67), vs. (16)Purdue(61-56), vs. (22)Indiana(72-69), vs. (26)Texas(78-72)
Bad losses: NONE
GBMWolverine
Michigan’s four big wins could help their cause. There are a few bid stealers out there, but the win against Indiana was big. They are squarely back in trouble after getting thumped by Purdue today. I little more effort would have gone a long way.
The loss of Caris LeVert has been a big one. Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton have picked up the slack, but they don’t shoot as well as LeVert. Duncan Robinson comes close. How will the committee treat the loss of LeVert? Michigan clearly is not the same without him.
Michigan is one of the few bubble teams without a bad loss. All of their losses were to teams that were in the top 75 of the RPI. They played a pretty tough schedule. The bad part? Their big four wins are the only four wins against the RPI top 100. That is very close to the predicament that Ohio State is in.
Projected seed: 12
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we check in on all of the other conferences! We will be with you all day on selection Sunday with more team rundowns and our 11th hour seeding predictions!