2016 NCAA Tournament: Meet the one bid leagues!
America East Conference:
Regular season champ: Stony Brook
Automatic bid: Stony Brook
Stony Brook (26-6, 16-2 AEC, RPI: 60, SOS: 219)
Location: Stony Brook, NY
Last Tournament bid: N/A
Best win: vs. (38)Princeton(91-77)
Worst loss: at (158)Western Kentucky
Busting Brackets
Stony Brook is crashing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history this year. They beat two teams in the RPI top 60 in Princeton and Hofstra. They could be a tough out. They are likely going to get a 12 seed this year.
Four players average over 10 points per game, led by Jameel Warney, who averages nearly 20. Warney is a load to handle in the middle, and can be even for major conference teams. The shooting of Carson Puriefoy and Lucas Woodhouse from the outside helps keep the defense from collapsing the interior.
Projected seed: 12
Next: Atlantic Sun Conference
Atlantic Sun Conference:
Regular season champion: North Florida
Automatic bid: Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Gulf Coast (20-13, 8-6 ASC, RPI: 213, SOS: 279
Location: Ft Myers, FL
Last tournament bid: 2013
Best win: at (162)North Florida 89-56
Worst loss: at (301)Stetson 73-80
Busting Brackets
Florida Gulf Coast became the first ever 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 2013, ousting Georgetown and San Diego State before falling to Florida.
The Eagles don’t have the strength of schedule or the RPI to take a 15 seed this year. They will likely be one of the 16 seeds, and could wind up in the play-in game.
Marc Eddy Norelia makes this team go. He will have some problems with the kind of team that the Eagles will run into in the tournament this year. If they do end up in one of the play-in games, they will have a good shot to be a sacrificial lamb for one of the number one seeds on Thursday or Friday.
Projected seed: 16 (play-in)
Next: Big Sky Conference?
Big Sky Conference:
Regular season champion: Weber State
Automatic Bid: Weber State
Weber State (26-8, 15-3 BSC, RPI: 108, SOS: 303)
Location: Ogden, UT
Last tournament bid: 2014
Best win: vs. (28)South Dakota State(99-95)
Worst loss: at (272)Utah Valley State(81-84)
Betsided
Five losses against RPI under 190 is ominous for the Wildcats. That said, they will be charged for the tournament. They don’t have the RPI to get a high seed, but they could be dangerous on the 15 line. Just look at how crazy the conference tournaments were this year. There really isn’t one invincible team.
The duo of Jeremy Senglin and Joel Bolomboy averages over 35 points per game between the two of them. They are both great shooters, and can be tough to guard. Kyndahl Hill is a capable scorer in the middle, though the team is a little undersized.
Projected seed: 15
Next: Big South Conference
Big South Conference:
Regular season champion: High Point
Automatic Bid: UNC Asheville
UNC- Asheville (18-11, 12-6 Big South, RPI: 140, SOS: 242)
Location: Asheville, NC
Last tournament bid: 2012
Best win: vs. (84)East Tennessee State 84-64
Worst loss: at (193)Radford 86-91; vs. (193)Radford 59-60
UNC Asheville was the four seed heading into the Big South tournament. They knocked off regular season champion High Point in the Big South semifinal, and took out number two Winthrop in the championship to put them in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012
Every Bulldog starter averaged double digit points and shot 32% or better from beyond the arc. Shooting teams like this are prone to slumps, but they are also the kinds of teams that can pull unlikely upsets. They would have to get off of the 16 seed line to do that though. At this point, that isn’t likely. They need to hope for some other small conference champions to lose in their respective conference tournaments.
Projected seed: 16
Next: Big West Conference
Big West Conference:
Regular season champion: Hawaii
Automatic Bid: Hawaii
Hawaii (27-5, 13-3 Big West, RPI: 80, SOS: 241)
Location: Honolulu, HI
Last tournament bid: 2002
Best win: vs. (70)Northern Iowa(68-52)
Worst loss: vs. (267)UC-Riverside(71-77)
Hawaii only lost one game to RPI under 80, which could earn them a 12 seed. If they land there, look out. They only lost to Oklahoma by three points. They also beat Northern Iowa and six more teams above 100 in the RPI.
The Warriors rely on outside shooting to keep them in, and win, games. Stefan Jankovic leads the team with 15.7 points per game, but Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt also average more than 13 a game. This is going to be a tough team. Just ask Oklahoma.
Projected seed: 14
Next: Colonial Athletic Association?
Colonial Athletic Association:
Regular season champion: Hofstra
Automatic Bid: UNC-Wilmington
UNC-Wilmington (25-7, 14-4 CAA, RPI: 44, SOS: 129)
Location: Wilmington, NC
Last tournament bid: 2006
Best win: at (56)Hofstra 70-67; vs. (56)Hofstra 80-73
Worst loss: at (201)East Carolina 73-78
Busting Brackets
The Seahawks have a better RPI than Hofstra. They also beat them twice out of three times this season, including when it counted in the CAA Final. Their solid SOS and good RPI should land them a nice seed in the NCAA tournament.
As for Hofstra, they have two road wins against RPI top 50 teams (St. Bonaventure and UNC-Wilmington), but they have five losses to teams under 100 in the RPI. They have an outside shot at an at-large bid, but they need a lot of help.
This is a guard-dominated group that shoots well from the perimeter. They will have problems with bigger teams, but if they get a favorable matchup, they could cause some problems. Chris Flemmings is a sharpshooter that can hit from all over the court. This team will go as he goes.
Projected seed: 12
Next: Conference USA
Conference USA:
Regular season champion: UAB
Automatic bid: Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State (24-9, 13-5 CUSA, RPI: 78, SOS: 155):
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
Last tournament bid: 2013
Best win: vs. (95)Belmont(83-62)
Worst loss: at (178)Georgia State(62-64)
UAB doesn’t have the RPI to make it in on merit alone, so they are bound for the NIT. Middle Tennessee State has a decent enough RPI, but I am still betting they land on the 13 seed line. That may not be a bad thing. They are still going to have a shot against a four seed.
The Blue Raiders have four players that average double digit points per game. Giddy Potts averages 15 per game, and shoots better than 50% from the outside. This team is littered with good outside shooters and plays solid defense. If they get hot, they can pull an upset.
Projected seed: 14
Next: Horizon League
Horizon League:
Regular season champion: Valparaiso
Automatic bid: Green Bay
Green Bay (23-12, 11-7 Horizon, RPI: 117, SOS: 213)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Last tournament bid: 1996
Best wins: vs. (34)Akron 66-63
Worst loss: at (280)Youngstown State 93-103
Busting Brackets
Green Bay took out regular season champion Valparaiso and third seed Wright State en route to the Horizon automatic bid. The RPI isn’t great, but they do have a couple of good wins. They also hung with Wisconsin earlier this year, so they have shown that they can give good teams problems.
Now Valparaiso is likely on the outside looking in. The 49 RPI is very nice and they own a win against (33)Oregon State, but they have five losses to RPI under 100 teams. That probably isn’t going to get them in, though I would love to see two Horizon League teams in.
Carrington Love is a pure shooter that can’t be left open. Jordan Fouse nearly averaged a double-double in the middle this year, but could have problems with bigger bigs. He is only 6’7″ and isn’t very thick. He did have a good game against Wisconsin though.
Projected seed: 15
Next: Ivy League
Ivy League
Yale (22-6, 13-1 Ivy, RPI: 42, SOS: 161):
Location: New Haven, CT
Last Tournament Bid: 1962
Best win: vs. (39)Princeton 79-75
Worst loss: at (160)Illinois 65-69
Busting Brackets
Yale hung tough with RPI 11 SMU, losing by just two points. They didn’t have any real bad losses, and split with the Ivy League’s RPI champ Princeton.
The Tigers have little to no shot at an at-large bid. They don’t have the big wins to pull it off.
Yale has not been in the NCAA tournament since 1962, when there were only 25 teams. Yale’s RPI is high enough to land them a seed where they could put a scare into some major conference team.
Yale relies on capable scorers Makal Mason and Justin Sears and great defense to get to opponents. They don’t have good size, but with the right matchup, they could pull an upset.
Projected seed: 13
Next: Metro Athletic
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference:
Regular season champion: Monmouth
Automatic bid: Iona
Iona (22-10, 16-4 MAAC, RPI: 80, SOS: 145)
Location: New Rochelle, NY
Last tournament bid: 2013
Best win: vs. (54)Monmouth 79-76; at (54)Monmouth 83-67
Worst loss: at (240)Rider 75-79
High Post Hoops
Iona beat Monmouth for the second time in three tries this year in the MAAC final to make their first tournament appearance in three years. The RPI is good enough to keep them off of the dreaded 16 line. At least a 15 seed usually has a puncher’s chance.
Monmouth still has a shot at an at-large berth based on wins over Notre Dame and USC. Will that be enough? Valparaiso has a higher RPI, but if you are going based on big wins alone. The MAAC will get two teams in for the first time ever.
A.J. English is one of the best pure scorers in the college game averaging 22.4 points per contest for the Gaels. Deyshonee Much is a guy that you can’t leave open from beyond the arc. He shoots an impressive 45% from three point land, and could be crucial if the Gaels are to pull an upset.
Projected seed: 15
Next: MEAC
Middle Eastern Athletic Conference:
Regular season champion: Hampton
Automatic bid: Hampton
Hampton (21-10, 13-3 MEAC, RPI: 154, SOS: 326)
Location: Hampton, VA
Last tournament bid: 2015
Best win: vs. (96)Louisiana-Monroe(75-64)
Worst loss: vs. (312)Nicholls State(81-84)
South Bound & Down
Hampton earns their second straight NCAA tournament berth with back to back MEAC titles. This year, they may even be able to get off of the 16 line.
The Pirates boast three players who averaged double digit points, led by Reginald Johnson. Between Johnson and Quinton Chievous, they average more than 35 points per game. The Pirates shoot a lot from outside. If they get hot, they could make it interesting for a one seed.
Projected seed: 16
Next: MAC
Mid-American Conference:
Regular season champion: Akron
Automatic bid: Buffalo
Buffalo (20-14, 10-8 MAC, RPI: 91, SOS: 91)
Location: Buffalo, NY
Last tournament bid: 2015
Best win: vs (34)Akron(64-61)
Worst loss: at (203)Western Michigan(71-91)
Canes Warning
Buffalo, led by former NCAA tournament icon Bobby Hurley, is making their second straight NCAA tournament appearance after never having been there before. This team gained valuable experience last year, and they hung with a tough West Virginia team. They likely wont land a 12 seed this year, but can still make noise as a 13.
Akron can still make a case for getting in. Their RPI is very good, but the lack of a big win will probably leave them out. Monmouth beat two very good teams.
The Bulls are a much more balanced team than last year’s squad. They regularly play seven players, and four of them average more than 11 points per game. They are undersized, but they are good shooters and can keep in most games. The general rule: If their numbers are 3 or below, they are vital to Buffalo’s team.
Projected seed: 13
Next: Mountain West Conference
Mountain West:
Regular season champion: San Diego State
Automatic bid: Fresno State
Fresno State (25-9, 13-5 MWC, RPI: 66, SOS: 143):
Location: Fresno, CA
Last tournament bid: 2001
Best win: vs. (40)San Diego State(58-57); vs. (40)San Diego State(68-63)
Worst loss: at (301)San Jose State(53-65)
Fresno won their first ever Mountain West tournament title. They likely weren’t getting an at large bid, but this could be a blessing in disguise for the conference. San Diego State may be able to get in. They own a big win over Cal and they played Utah tough. They play great defense, and would be a matchup nightmare for anyone. The RPI is good enough. I think they get in.
Marvelle Harris averaged more than 20 points per game this year, and shot better than 40% while taking 573 shots! The loss of Torren Jones hurts, but Karachi Edo has helped pick up the slack. Julien Lewis and Jahmel Taylor are very good outside shooters who open up things for Harris. This is a well rounded team that won’t be an easy out.
Projected seed: 13
Next: Northeast Conference
Northeast Conference:
Regular season champion: Wagner
Automatic bid: Fairleigh-Dickinson
Fairleigh-Dickinson (18-14, 11-7 NEC, RPI: 204, SOS: 307):
Location: Teaneck, NJ
Last tournament bid: 2005
Best win: vs. (150)Towson 69-68
Worst loss: vs. (321)Bryant 80-85
Fairleigh-Dickinson ousted regular season champion Wagner to earn their first tournament berth in 11 years. The lack of good wins and the plethora of bad losses virtually assure the Knights of a play-in game in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Projected seed: 16 (play-in)
Next: Ohio Valley Conference
Ohio Valley Conference:
Regular season champion: Belmont
Automatic Bid: Austin Peay
Austin Peay (18-17, 7-9 OVC, RPI: 189, SOS: 195)
Location: Clarksville, TN
Last tournament bid: 2008
Best win: vs. (95)Belmont(97-96)
Worst loss: vs. (271)Eastern Illinois(86-87)
Busting Brackets
The Governors are making their first NCAA tournament bid in eight years. They were the eight seed in the OVC tournament! They are definitely headed for a play in game!
Chris Horton is an interior force for the Governors. He averaged 19 points per game. Guards Josh Robinson and Khalil Davis keep teams honest on the outside. Jared Savage is a sharpshooter from outside. The Governors’ problem has been defense. That isn’t going to change any time in the next four days.
Projected seed: 16 (play-in)
Next: Patriot League
Patriot League:
Regular season champion: Bucknell
Automatic bid: Holy Cross
Holy Cross (14-19, 5-13 Patriot, RPI: 248, SOS: 287)
Location: Worcester, MA
Last tournament bid: 2007
Best win: at (168)Lehigh(59-56)
Worst loss: at (329)Lafayette(52-65)
Busting Brackets
Okay…..I’ve been around for quite a while, and I have been paying close attention to the NCAA tournament since about 1988. The Crusaders are the worst team that I can remember getting in. They were the ninth seed in the Patriot League tournament! Their biggest win before the Patriot League tournament was against RPI 192 Harvard in November!
Three Crusaders average more than 10 points per game, led by Malachi Alexander’s 12. This team can shoot from the outside. All they need to do is get hot, which has been a problem all year. They only average 65 points per game, but good luck trying to slow down a number one seed even if they do make it out of Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Projected seed: 16 (play-in)
Next: Southern Conference?
Southern Conference:
Regular season champion: Chattanooga
Automatic Bid: Chattanooga
Chattanooga (29-5, 15-3 Southern, RPI: 50, SOS: 199)
Location: Chattanooga, TN
Last tournament bid: 2009
Best win: at (21)Dayton(61-59)
Worst loss: vs. (237)UNC-Greensboro(64-79)
Busting Brackets
Chattanooga may have done well enough to secure a spot even without the automatic bid. They took down Dayton and Georgia out of conference. They are going to be a tough team to beat for one of the mid range seeds in this year’s tournament.
This is a well balanced team that really gets after you. They go nine deep often to keep up their swarming defense. All nine of those players average more than six points per game, so they can all contribute on the offensive end. They are a more complete team than most smaller schools. Enjoy watching these guys! I will!
Projected seed: 14
Next: Southland
Southland:
Regular season champion: Stephen F. Austin
Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin (27-5, 18-0 Southland, RPI: 62, SOS: 265)
Location: Nacogdoches, TX
Last tournament bid: 2015
Best win: (85)Texas A&M Corpus Christi(66-61, 82-60, 70-58)
Worst loss: vs. (231)Tulane(59-60)
Arrowhead Addict
The Lumberjacks earned their third straight NCAA Tournament berth by destroying the Southland Conference this year. They took down VCU in the 2014 tournament, and put up a good fight last year. They are going to be a tough team to beat once again.
Thomas Walkup is still the heart of this team for the third straight year Demetrius Floyd and Clide Geffrard both averaged more than 13 points per game as well. Floyd is a brilliant outside shooter, keeping teams off of Walkup. They might be even more well rounded than they were last year, if a little smaller.
Projected seed: 14
Next: Summit League
Summit League:
Regular season champion: Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne
Automatic bid: South Dakota State
South Dakota State (26-7, 12-4 Summit, RPI: 28, SOS: 136)
Location: Brookings, SD
Last tournament bid: 2013
Best win: vs. (72)IPFW(92-76)
Worst loss: at (286)UMKC(57-64)
Busting Brackets
South Dakota State has a high RPI, but they don’t have any big wins. That will keep them from being an 11 seed. They are likely still on the 12 line, but they are going to be dangerous from there as well.
Mike Daum, George Marshall, and Deondre Parks all average 15 points per game, giving the Jackrabbits a well rounded attack. They are also good shooters from outside. They have to be due to their lack of size. If they can hang around with a five seed, they have a chance to win it due to good shooting.
Projected seed: 12
Next: Sun Belt
Sun Belt:
Regular season champion: Little Rock
Automatic bid: Little Rock
Little Rock (29-4, 17-3 Sun Belt, RPI: 46, SOS: 247)
Location: Little Rock, AR
Last tournament bid: 2011
Best win: at (40)San Diego State(49-43)
Worst loss: at (283)Arkansas State(73-76)
Saturday Blitz
UALR might have been good enough to get in as an at-large bid. They had road wins against both San Diego State and Tulsa, both bubble teams in their own right. Luckily for some team, the Trojans earned the automatic bid.
The Trojans rely on stifling defense and slowing the game down. Josh Hagins and Marcus Johnson are the only ones that average double figures. This team also shoots well from the perimeter and could cause problems for whomever they match up with.
Projected seed: 14
Next: Southwest Athletic Conference
SWAC:
Regular season champion: Texas Southern
Automatic bid: Southern
Southern (22-12, 11-7 SWAC, RPI: 186, SOS: 337)
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Last tournament bid: 2013
Best win: at (150)Mississippi State(76-72)
Worst loss: at (334)Prairie View A&M(65-71, 71-79)
Betsided
The Jaguars are back in after winning the SWAC tournament as a four seed. Their starting five all averages double digit points, led by Adrian Rogers and his 16.6 average. This is a team that isn’t afraid to shoot from outside. They will need a lot of those to fall to have a shot.
Projected seed: 16
Next: Western Athletic Conference
WAC:
Regular season champion: New Mexico State
Automatic bid: Cal-Bakersfield
Cal-Bakersfield (24-8,11-3 WAC, RPI: 118, SOS: 147)
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Last tournament bid: N/A
Best win: vs. (92)Grand Canyon(77-62)
Worst loss: at (190)Idaho(63-67)
Friars on Base
The Roadrunners are making their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. They will likely get a 15 seed. Couple that with them being amped to be there, and they have a shot at an upset.
This is a very well rounded team. All of the starters average in double figures. Aly Ahmed leads the way with 13 per game. That means that anyone on the team can score if needed.
Projected seed: 15
Next: WCC
West Coast Conference:
Regular season Champion: St. Marys
Automatic bid: Gonzaga
Gonzaga (26-7, 15-3 WCC, RPI: 44, SOS: 110):
Location: Spokane, WA
Last Tournament bid: 2015
Best win: vs. (37)St. Marys(85-75)
Worst loss: vs. (102)UCLA(66-71)
Busting Brackets
Gonzaga is making their 18th straight NCAA tournament appearance. They would likely have got in as an at-large anyway, which makes me think that St. Mary’s is safe. The Gaels have a better RPI, but their only big wins are against Gonzaga. The two losses to Pepperdine could keep them out. The relative strength of the WCC does help their cause though.
Kyle Wiltjer and Domatas Sabonis are matchup nightmares for any team. They are both accomplished scorers, and Wiltjer can hit from anywhere on the court. Gonzaga is back to being a double digit seed, and they are going to be a very dangerous one!
Projected seed: 11
Stay tuned for the PAC 12 and the mock seeding, all coming up soon!