2016 NCAA Tournament: First Four Predictions
By Mike Marteny
2016 NCAA Tournament: First Four predictions
The 2016 NCAA Tournament is here! The first four, or play-in games (which the NCAA is adamantly against, all the more reason to do it) begin tonight. Sure, two of these four are just whipping boys for Kentucky and Duke, but they count as NCAA tournament wins!
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My predictions will kick off here with my picks for the “first four” Let’s kick it off right now!
(16)Florida Gulf Coast vs. (16)Fairleigh-Dickinson:
Florida Gulf Coast (20-13, 0-2 vs. field, 2nd NCAA Tournament berth)
The Eagles took the tournament by storm back in 2013 when they won twice in Omaha to become the first 15 seed to ever reach the Sweet Sixteen. This is not built like the “dunk city” team that blew up the brackets three years ago.
FGCU has a distinct height advantage in this one. They are much bigger than FDU up front, and will try to use that to their advantage.
Fairleigh-Dickinson (18-14, 0-2 vs. field, 5th NCAA Tournament berth)
Fairleigh-Dickinson is a bit of an anomaly for a small school. They have no seniors on the team. 96% of their scoring output comes from freshmen and sophomores. Even if they lose here, they are a strong bet to be back at least once over the next two or three years.
This is a very balanced team that could cause some problems on the outside for the Eagles. My question is whether they can handle the size of Florida Gulf Coast on the inside. It would be different if all they were was size. Two of them are capable scorers.
Prediction:
The winner of this game gets to be the warm-up for North Carolina on Thursday. However, one of these schools will get to boast a tournament win on their resumé. I like the size of Florida Gulf Coast to pull away.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast
Next: Can Wichita State Make A Run?
(11)Vanderbilt vs. (11)Wichita State:
Vanderbilt (19-13, 2-6 vs. field, 14th NCAA Tournament appearance)
Many people are surprised that Vanderbilt is in the field after losing to Tennessee in the first round of the SEC Tournament. The Commodores are in on their two top 20 wins (Kentucky and Texas A&M). They also had five more wins against the RPI top 75.
Make no mistake, this is a tough team. They hung with Kansas, Baylor, and Dayton in non-conference games.
Wade Baldwin is a fun player to watch. He is the orchestrator of this offense. Vanderbilt also has two 7-footers in the interior, making it tough to get any good inside shots. It also makes it tough for opposing guards to drive the lane.
Wichita State (24-8, 4-7 vs. field, 13th NCAA Tournament appearance)
Wichita State is making a school record fifth straight tournament appearance. They have won seven games in those five tournaments, so this is a very dangerous team. The Shockers have only lost three games since December 20th.
Led by the veteran backcourt duo of Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers are a force to be reckoned with. Just ask the Kansas team that they beat last year to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The Shockers’ seeding is largely because of five losses in their first ten games. They opened the season ranked number 10. That tells you just how much talent is left.
Prediction:
Both of these teams are great defensive teams. This should be a low scoring battle. The veteran leadership and outside scoring of Wichita State has me leaning towards the Shockers in this one. They will also be able to give Arizona all they want in the first round on Tuesday.
Pick: Wichita State
Next: Holy Cross vs. Southern
(16)Holy Cross vs. (16)Southern
Holy Cross (14-19, 0-0 vs. field, 13th NCAA Tournament appearance)
Holy Cross is the 25th team to get into the NCAA tournament with a losing record, and they just might be the worst. The Crusaders went 5-13 in the Patriot League this year before winning four straight games to capture the league’s automatic bid.
Holy Cross has some size in the middle, but they don’t stay in the middle. This team relies on three point shots for a majority of their offense. If they get hot, like they did in the Patriot League tournament, they could be tough for Southern to deal with.
Southern (22-12, 0-0 vs. field, 8th NCAA Tournament appearance)
Southern came out of the SWAC as the fourth seed, but their RPI was just one slot below SWAC winner Texas Southern’s. Their big win this year was a road win against Mississippi State on November 16th.
Southern is a rather small team, but they are athletic enough to trail Holy Cross’s shooters out of the paint. Adrian Rogers is a good scorer that the Crusaders are going to have a hard time keeping under wraps.
Prediction:
Holy Cross has not won a NCAA Tournament game since 1953. I think that drought continues. I’m not going to take a team with a losing record that relies on threes to win a game. Southern should get their win here, but they are going to get buried by Oregon.
Next: Who Deserved To Be In More, Michigan Or Tulsa?
(11)Michigan vs. (11)Tulsa:
Michigan (22-12, 5-5 vs. field, 27th(four vacated) NCAA Tournament appearance)
Michigan battled a lot of injuries this year, and are still without both of their seniors (Caris LaVert and Spike Albrecht). They are in based on their big win over Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan racked up four wins against the RPI top 30, but didn’t have any more against the top 110. However, all of their losses were to RPI top 75 teams.
Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton have had to pick up the slack with LaVert out, and have done a really good job. The Wolverines hit nearly 10 three pointers a game on average, and are tough to stop from beyond the arc. They still have three players that shoot 40% or better from three point range, even with the absence of LaVert, the 45% sharpshooter from deep.
Tulsa (20-11, 4-10 vs. field, 16th NCAA Tournament appearance)
Tulsa has four wins against the RPI top 50, and four more against the rest of the top 100. You can say they rank right up there with Michigan. This team is a veteran team, led by point guard James Woodard. Does the name sound familiar? It should. He is the brother of Oklahoma guard Jordan Woodard. Shaq Harrison is very capable alongside Woodard. This team is fun to watch, and thrilled to be in. No one thought they would be. Even Harrison Tweeted that he though they were out after their loss to Memphis in the AAC tournament.
Prediction:
The trendy pick here is Michigan, but Tulsa is better than people think. They are thrilled to just be getting a chance. I’m going with the experience and depth of Tulsa over the talent of Michigan. If LaVert were healthy, it may be a different story.
Pick: Tulsa
Next: Meet The 12-16 Seeds In This Year's Tourney!
Stay tuned for my picks in every game before your brackets need to be turned in on Thursday morning! Good luck out there!