NCAA Tournament Prospect Breakdown: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region of this year’s NCAA Tournament figures to peak the interest of NBA fans more than its three counterparts. Players like Jakob Poeltl, Denzel Valentine, Domantas Sabonis and Monte Morris dot the bracket, and in a fun twist not seen in the Madness most years, the prospects are found as much in the high seeds as in the lower ones. Oh, and top-seeded Virginia finished the season as KenPom’s second-ranked team after winning the ACC tournament.

The numbers listed next to each prospect are their ranking on Upside and Motor’s most recent big board. NR means, of course, that they were not ranked.

#1 Virginia vs. #16 Hampton

Virgnia: Malcolm Brogdon (46), Anthony Gill (NR)

Virginia’s pair of standout seniors are largely responsible for their steadfast success even after the departures of NBA draftees Joe Harris and Justin Anderson each of the last two seasons. While Brogdon may be the only guy to join them in the Association this June, Gill has arguably had the better season.

Brogdon has all the makings of an NBA combo guard, and that’s not an insult. He uses superior body control to make up for less-than-impressive explosiveness and a picture-esque jumper will do him well in the NBA. (Think Gary Harris). Brogdon has learned to operate very well within Tony Bennett’s tight system offensively (he put 26 on UNC and another 28 on Miami this year). A disciple of Bennett will always come pre-packaged as a pro-ready defender, and Brogdon is no exception. He pairs exceptional on-ball skills with the knowledge necessary to play a weakside safety behind Virginia’s aggressive trapping.

Gill is a smaller forward who lacks the athleticism necessary to earn a roster spot in the NBA. He’s fairly effective from the block, and has decent leaping ability, but won’t wow you on any given play.

#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Middle Tennessee

Michigan State: Denzel Valentine (15), Deyonta Davis (20)

The narrative has written itself on Denzel Valentine this year. He’s a great dude by all accounts, with two triple-doubles and a potential Naismith Award to his name. He’ll be the centerpiece as a player and a leader for this year’s MSU squad (one that figures to make a deep tournament run). He doesn’t quite have the quickness to play point guard in the NBA, but has the vision and finishing ability to be a legitimate force as a ball handler. He has a knack for collecting rebounds like few other guards do — that preternatural instinct for when to dive inside and when to back out for the outlet pass.

Deyonta Davis is one of the more exciting guys in college basketball. It’s difficult to watch him and evade the resemblance he has to another slender No. 23 that dominated college basketball — Anthony Davis. He has the same sort of subtle all-around impact. He uses his body well on both ends, playing physical, nuanced defense down low and earning space on offense to flip up a variety of right handed finishes. He’s a willing box-out guy and a smart passer who should probably look for his own shot more. Maybe the tournament is exactly the stage he needs.  

MSU might not get a real test until the Sweet Sixteen, as they’ll get either Syracuse or Dayton if they make it past Middle Tennessee.

#3 Utah vs. #14 Fresno State

Utah: Jakob Poeltl (5), Kyle Kuzma (NR)

Both of these bigs benefit from guards that feed them well, but they are each impressive in their own right. Kuzma is an efficient finisher who can drive from about 20 feet out if the defense gives him the space. He knows where to be on offense around another dominant inside presence in Poeltl and cuts well. He’ll likely be at Utah next season, but is someone to watch on a team that figures to be better this year than next.

Poeltl is so exciting. He made the more promising and growingly popular decision to come stateside for college rather than immediately declaring for the draft, and has benefitted tremendously from his two years at Utah. Imagine a mix of Alex Len and Jonas Valanciunas — the crafty nimbleness of Len mixed with the strength and rebounding prowess of Jonas (especially offensively). Poeltl is exactly the kind of defender you’d like in the modern NBA because he can contain the pick and roll out to the 3-point line and switch onto a guard in a pinch. He is a clever finisher down low, intelligently using his body and balance to score consistently with both hands.

#4 Iowa State vs. #13 Iona

Iowa State: Monte Morris (45), Georges Niang (NR)

This iteration of Iowa State’s team features two premier ball-handlers in Morris and Niang. Morris boasts the nation’s best turnover-to-assist ratio in the nation this year at just over four-to-one. He’s as good a set-up man as any, and gets plenty for himself as well (13.9 points per game on a 56.4 True Shooting Percentage). He’s a slithery jitterbug on offense whose penchant for playmaking has made ISU’s offense one of the more fun groups in the nation this year.

Georges Niang is of the same ilk as Denzel Valentine (or, to go back a little bit, Matt Howard from Butler’s second Final Four squad) — an oversized but capable playmaker/ball-handler who lacks the athleticism to play point guard. However, Niang has become an electric shooter (though he doesn’t jump for most shots) and scorer this year, becoming the key cog and secondary ball-handler in an offense that ranked third in KenPom’s “Adjusted O” (ORtg adjusted for opponent).

Unfortunately, he lacks the lateral quickness and athleticism necessary to keep up with guards on defense. The pick and roll is a roller coaster of sadness for him, and that is likely what will secure his spot outside the chosen 60 come June.

Iona: A.J. English (NR)

English might be the best shooter in the country this side of Buddy Hield. He will shoot around, over and underneath you if he needs to, as displayed in his nine 3-point attempts per game. He makes a solid 37.4 percent considering the volume, and will likely figure heavily into the Cyclones’ defensive game plan — he has the sort of skillset that can turn a tournament game on its heels in a hurry.

If you’re interested, watch his 46-point performance against Fairfield or his game-winner versus Manhattan. English is one of the more fun unknown players in the country.

#5 Purdue vs. #12 Little Rock

Purdue: A.J. Hammons (57)

Hammons is a pretty impressive guy physically, even though he’s a bit bulkier at 7-0, 261 pounds than you might hope for. He uses his body well to establish position on offense, is an aware rim lurker on that end, and has legitimate shooting touch out to about 22 feet.

He is an alert rim protector; the rare big guy who can be a legitimate rim protector while also playing a traditional post-up style on the other end. Unfortunately, he affects the game in few other ways. This March will be a real test of his force as a focal point against other solid teams.

Luckily, Little Rock is not much of a test in the first round.

#6 Seton Hall vs. #11 Gonzaga

Seton Hall: Isaiah Whitehead (NR)

Whitehead reminds me of Jimmy Butler on offense — a sneakily good ball-handler with knockdown shooting and the tremendous ability to finish through contact at the rim (or draw a foul; he doubled his FTAs since last year). He’s been a great shooter from deep since coming to Seton Hall, and is up to 38 percent on eight attempts per game this year. He’s only a sophomore, but Seton Hall getting a decent seeding after a strong showing in Big East play might be enough (assuming strong play on his part) to propel him to the top of some preseason prospect rankings heading into 2016-17.

Gonzaga: Domantas Sabonis (21), Kyle Wiltjer (NR)

I feel like we’ve seen the Sabonis Show play out before — a European big man with some shooting touch but questionable hands and positional fit? It seems too easy to worry at this point. However, his frame is fuller than most guys of his ilk, and he plays an aggressive style down low. Unfortunately, his height and wingspan seem destined to fluster him as he adapts to rim protection and pick and roll containment in the NBA.

His hands might be the least of his worries (though three turnovers per 40 minutes might be enough to swing a tournament game Seton Hall’s way).

Wiltjer has provided all of the production that Zag fans might have hoped for from Sabonis heading into the year. However, his only marketable skill seems to be his ability to drive to the hoop from the 3-point arc all the way in. That, and a nice chemistry with backboards around the country. He’s a senior, though, and will likely find himself out of luck come NBA Draft time.

#7 Dayton vs. #10 Syracuse

Syracuse: Tyler Roberson (NR), Michael Gbinije (NR)

Gbinije, like seemingly all of Syracuse’s roster, has terrifying shooting range. The Duke transfer is up to 41 percent from deep on the season to go with four assists and four rebound per game. He keeps the cog moving from shooter to big and back out again with smart passes that are not quite “next-level.” He’s not going to be a step ahead of the defense, but he’ll make the most of what he’s given. He’s a bit too small to make an impact defensively.

Roberson is the similar to the type of hyper-athletic rebounding big man who makes scouts drool. But he’s probably not big enough to be a big man, and might not rebound well enough to carve out a niche there. Instead, he’ll likely stay in Syracuse another year, but even that might not be enough to make up for his physical deficiencies.  

#8 Texas Tech vs. #9 Butler

Butler: Roosevelt Jones (NR)

Jones has the body type and play style to harken back to Raymond Felton’s best days. I mean that as a compliment — the senior has a nose for the ball, makes the smart play consistently, and doggedly gets to the rim over and over again. After a solid Big East tournament, the Bulldogs will need Jones to play well to get over the new-Conference hump and make another deep tournament run.