2016 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Predictions
By Mike Marteny
2016 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region predictions
The brackets are out! You know what that means. Everyone is scouring the internet and TV trying to get any advantage they can. The NCAA tournament turns normal people into hardcore gamblers for three weeks.
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So here I am, doing my part to try and give you some insight. If you follow my advice, you will either look like a genius or an idiot. In March, there is no in-between. My best advice is to gather as much information as you can and follow your gut!
Here are my picks for the Midwest Region, for this weekend and beyond!
(1)Virginia (9-3 vs. the field, 20th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (16)Hampton(0-1 vs. the field, 6th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Raleigh, NC:
Virginia is a number one seed for the second time in three years. The last time they were, they were unceremoniously dumped by Michigan State in the Sweet 16. The problem for Virginia? The Spartans are in their region again, but the only possible meeting would come in the regional final.
Hampton is in their second straight NCAA tournament. No 16 seed has ever beaten a one seed, but Hampton knocked off 2 seed Iowa State in the first round back in 2001. They have that going for them.
That might be the only positive for Hampton. Virginia plays swarming defense, and this year they have the offense to back it up.
Pick: Virginia
(8)Texas Tech(7-9 vs. the field, 14th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (9)Butler(5-8 vs. the field, 14th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Raleigh, NC:
Texas Tech came back to relevance under Tubby Smith this year. The Red Raiders are in their first tournament since 2007, and boast an upset of Oklahoma to help boost their confidence. This is not the typical Butler team that rolls into the NCAA tournament, but they are experienced. They have gone dancing in eight of the last ten years, including a run to the Championship game in 2011.
Texas Tech is going to have their hands full in this one. Butler plays really good defense and shoots the ball well. Much like Oklahoma. Tech did beat Oklahoma this year, but that was in Lubbock. This is a long way from Lubbock.
Pick: Butler
(5)Purdue(8-7 vs. the field, 27th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (12)Arkansas-Little Rock(1-1 vs. the field, 5th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Denver, CO:
Purdue is big in the middle. HUGE. They start a pair of seven footers that clog up the lane like a Monster Burger clogs your arteries. The Boilermakers will slow down the game and frustrate you. It’s just what they do.
The good part for Little Rock is that they don’t just rely on one player. Or two. No, there are seven or eight guys that aren’t afraid to take big shots. The Trojans took down a San Diego State team early in the year that likely should be in the field. They can hang with just about anyone.
Purdue’s size in the middle should make the difference here. Both teams don’t mind playing at a snail’s pace. I still think that pace favors Purdue just a bit, but this is going to stay close.
Pick: Purdue
(4)Iowa State(9-11 vs. the field, 18th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (13)Iona(0-2 vs. the field, 10th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Denver, CO:
Iowa State is a tough team. They beat Oklahoma and Kansas this year, so they are a force to be reckoned with. Monte Morris has the best assist – turnover ratio in school history, and Georges Niang has the potential to be the school’s highest NBA draft pick. They are both special players.
Iona has one of their own A.J. English does everything for the Gaels. He and the rest of the team never met a shot they didn’t like. They shoot. A lot. And they make a lot of those shots. That makes them a dangerous team
Oh, if only this game weren’t in the thin air of Denver! It could be like Michigan and Loyola-Marymount in 1990 (for those of you too young to remember, go look it up on YouTube). The thin air will likely keep the scoring in the 80’s, but this is still going to be a fun one to watch. I love Iowa State and they way they play, but if Iona gets hot, the Cyclones are going home.
Pick: Iowa State
(6)Seton Hall(6-5 vs. the field, 10th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (11)Gonzaga(1-2 vs. the field, 19th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Denver, CO:
I’m not going to mention Derrick Gordon. Well, I will, but only in a basketball sense. He helps drive the Pirates. Seton Hall as a whole should be outraged. They beat two top five teams to in the Big East tournament. Their reward is playing one of the most dangerous double digit seeds in recent memory.
Gonzaga is tough to defend because of the versatility of Kyle Wiltjer. Domatas Sabonis has grown into an interior force. This team is tough to guard, and survived an early season swoon. Vegas doesn’t lie. There is a reason Gonzaga is favored.
Pick: Gonzaga
(3)Utah(11-7 vs. the field, 29th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (14)Fresno State(1-2 vs. the field, 5th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Denver, CO
Jakob Poeltl is almost as big as the mountains around Denver. Utah’s 7′ import from Austria is a nightmare matchup for anyone. He can do anything with the ball. They could probably have him bring it up the court if they wanted to. He is coordinated and agile.
Fresno State is going to try and run Utah into the ground. That could work to Utah’s advantage in the thin air. If not, the Utes are in trouble. Fresno, fueled by Marvelle Harris, the leading scorer in school history at 20.6 points per game, hung with Oregon earlier this year. Yes, the same Oregon team that blew out Utah in the Pac 12 Championship game. If you are looking for a 14 to upset a 3, this is the place to pick it. Am I that brave? Well…..if this game were at sea level, maybe.
Pick: Utah
(7)Dayton(3-3 vs. the field, 17th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (10)Syracuse(4-8 vs. the field, 34th NCAA Tournament appearance) at St. Louis, MO:
Dayton is a tough defensive team that rebounds well despite a lack of size. Scoochie Smith is as electric as his name sounds. Dayton is a very dangerous team at the bottom of the bracket. They may have the best chance of anyone in the region at picking off Michigan State.
Syracuse shouldn’t be in. Period. Doesn’t matter what seed they are. I really don’t care. Their RPI sucks, and the committee took the bleeding heart approach to Boeheim’s pleas. They robbed a more deserving St. Mary’s or Monmouth team of a berth. This game really could get ugly.
Pick: Dayton
(2)Michigan State(8-4 vs. the field, 30th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (15)Middle Tennessee State(1-2 vs. the field, 8th NCAA Tournament appearance) at St. Louis, MO
Most people are wondering how in the world the Spartans didn’t get a number one seed. On top of that, Mufreesboro, Tennessee is within driving distance of St. Louis. There are going to be a lot of Blue Raider fans hanging around. That likely wont bother the Spartans and player of the year candidate Denzel Valentine. Buddy Hield might be the best pure shooter in college, but Valentine is likely the best all around player.
Middle Tennessee State fans are going to infiltrate St Louis, but they can’t shoot free throws for their team. The Blue Raiders are the worst free throw shooting team in the tournament. That is not the way to pull off an upset.
Pick: Michigan State
First round winners: Virginia, Butler, Purdue, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Utah, Dayton, Michigan State
Second round winners: Virginia, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Michigan State
Sweet Sixteen winners: Virginia, Michigan State
Regional Champion: Michigan State. Yes, I have them knocking out Virginia yet again. I have the Spartans winning it all. Virginia is really the only team in this region that can test them.