2016 NCAA Tournament:Â South Region predictions
The brackets are out! You know what that means. Everyone is scouring the internet and TV trying to get any advantage they can. The NCAA tournament turns normal people into hardcore gamblers for three weeks.
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So here I am, doing my part to try and give you some insight. If you follow my advice, you will either look like a genius or an idiot. In March, there is no in-between. My best advice is to gather as much information as you can and follow your gut!
Here are my picks for the Midwest Region, for this weekend and beyond!
(1)Kansas(16-3 vs. the field, 45th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â vs. (16)Austin Peay(0-2 vs. the field, 6th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â at Des Moines, IA:
The last time that Kansas missed a NCAA tournament, George Bush, the first one, was president. Nirvana released their debut album Bleach. Time merged with Warner Communications forming Time Warner. The Exxon Valdez spilled 240,000 barrels of oil into Prince William Sound. The incident in Tiananmen Square occurred. Pete Rose was banned for life from baseball? Know what year it was? That’s right. It was 1989, the year after Danny and the Miracles. Kansas has been in every tournament since.
This Kansas team is full of veterans who played second fiddle to Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins, and Kelly Oubre over the last few years. They aren’t flashy, but they play very well as a team. That makes them all the more dangerous. Austin Peay was 12-17 before finishing the season 6-1 to bolt into the tournament. This will get ugly.
Pick: Kansas
(8)Colorado(5-8 vs. the field, 14th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â vs. (9)Connecticut(5-8 vs. the field, 32nd NCAA Tournament appearance) at Des Moines, IA:
This is Colorado’s third NCAA tournament appearance for this class of seniors, so they wont be intimidated by Connecticut. Only Amida Brimah and Phillip Nolan remain from the UConn team that won the championship a seven seed back in 2014. Colorado is arguably more experienced.
Colorado is also a great rebounding team, but Connecticut enters as one of the hottest teams around right now. They aren’t quite as good as that 2014 team, but they are are in a spot to make a dangerous run.
Pick: Connecticut
(5)Maryland(5-7 vs. the field, 25th NCAA Tournament appearance)Â vs. (12)South Dakota State(3-2 vs. the field, 3rd NCAA Tournament appearance)Â at Spokane, WA:
Melo Trimble is one of the best playmakers in the country, and is going to give the Jackrabbits serious problems. Rasheed Sulaimon is a threat in the middle. This looks ominous for South Dakota State. The problem is that Maryland has had problems with consistency this year.
It’s unusual for a small school like South Dakota State to have three wins against the field since they are from a one bid league. Those wins were against Middle Tennessee State, Weber State, and Florida Gulf Coast. They also played Texas Tech pretty tough back in December.
For those of you looking for a 12-5 upset, this is enticing because of Maryland’s inconsistency, but South Dakota State really doesn’t match up well with them. The Jackrabbits got a really tough draw.
Pick: Maryland
(4)California(7-7 vs. the field, 18th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (13)Hawaii(1-2 vs. the field, 5th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Spokane, WA:
Cal is a very young team that seems to be hitting their stride at the right time. Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown are lottery picks if they enter the NBA draft. Cal likes to turn up the heat on defense, and have plenty left to do damage on offense.
Hawaii’s Stefan Jankovic is going to give Cal problems in the middle. The Warriors are no pushovers. Just ask Oklahoma, who escaped the islands with a three point win back in December. Cal’s youth could work against them here, which makes Hawaii an intriguing upset pick.
Pick: California
(6)Arizona(6-7 vs. the field, 31st NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (11)Wichita State(4-6 vs. the field, 13th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Providence, RI:
Arizona is a veteran team that likes to run the court. Wichita State has arguably the best backcourt tandem in the tournament in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. Oh, and the Shockers might have the best defense in the field. They have not allowed 80 points in a game since November 29th. Arizona averaged 81.3. Something has to give.
Wichita State has won seven tournament games in the last three years led by VanVleet and Baker, including a upset of Kansas last year and a Final Four berth in 2013. Arizona really has no advantage over them besides Kaleb Tarczewski in the middle. Will it be enough?
Pick: Wichita State
(3)Miami(FL)(8-3 vs. the field, 8th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (14)Buffalo(0-4 vs. the field, 2nd NCAA Tournament appearance) at Providence, RI
Miami’s Sheldon McClellan is a playmaker who is nearly impossible to guard. The Hurricanes, coached by Jim Larranaga, are tough to beat. Remember him? He was the coach of the George Mason team that took the basketball world by storm in 2006. Now he has a talented team who was a thorn in the ACC all year.
Buffalo is making their second straight NCAA tournament appearance. Last year’s first was so fun, they had to do it again. The Bulls are a team that likes to run the court, and they shoot well from outside. Just the kind of team that is dangerous enough to pull an upset. That said, Miami is physical enough to slow them down. If that happens, the Bulls are in trouble.
Pick: Miami
(7)Iowa(7-7 vs. the field, 25th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (10)Temple(6-8 vs. the field, 32nd NCAA Tournament appearance) at Brooklyn, NY:
Iowa stumbled into the tournament, losing six of their last eight games. This was a top ten team early in the season, but they fell apart. Can they put it back together against a physical Temple team in the first round? With players like Jared Uthoff and Peter Jok, anything is possible. They can be matchup nightmares.
Temple was the opposite. They started the season slowly, then rebounded to win the AAC regular season crown. This is a tough defensive team, and one that shoots well from the outside. The bad part for Temple if they win? Villanova destroyed them early in the year.
When it comes down to it, I’m always going to take the team that is playing well.
Pick: Temple
(2)Villanova(10-5 vs. the field, 35th NCAA Tournament appearance) vs. (15)UNC-Asheville(0-2 vs. the field, 4th NCAA Tournament appearance) at Brooklyn, NY
Villanova lost a number one seed when they lost to Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament. That said, they really didn’t get a terrible draw. The Wildcats didn’t lose to a team outside of the RPI top 40. They definitely deserve this seeding.
Asheville’s claim to fame this year was taking out Georgetown in December. The Bulldogs are undersized, and are going to have serious problems trying to guard Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart. Add to that Villanova’s stiff defense, and this likely won’t be much of a game.
Pick: Villanova
First round winners:Â Kansas, Connecticut, Maryland, Cal, Wichita State, Miami, Temple, Villanova
Second round winners: Kansas, Maryland, Wichita State, Villanova
Sweet Sixteen winners: Kansas, Wichita State
Regional Champion: Kansas. I have them losing in the championship game. More importantly, I have them avenging last year’s bitter loss to Wichita State. It’s bitter because Kansas refuses to play the in-state Shockers and the Shockers got the best of them in last year’s tourney.
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