NCAA Tournament March Madness Live Blog, Day 2

It’s March Madness and our draft experts will be live blogging the NCAA Tournament games all day, with a little help from around the HP Basketball Network. Send us your thoughts and questions on Twitter or Facebook. Catch up with everything from Day 1 here.

7:35 — No.15 over No. 2 — Jeff Feyerer (@JFey5)

With No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State’s victory over No. 2 Michigan State, the team with the second-best odds to win the title according to Vegas oddsmakers, brackets all over the country were set ablaze. Given that a No. 16 has yet to beat a No. 1, it begs the question, was the Blue Raiders victory the single biggest bracket buster in NCAA 64-team history?

My data only goes back to 2002 so looking at Richmond over Syracuse (1991), Santa Clara over Arizona (1993), Coppin State over South Carolina (1997), and Hampton over Iowa State (2001) makes it tough to analyze statistically, but looking at the final AP polls prior to each tournament does shed some light.

Michigan State’s claim to a No. 1 seed seemed justified prior to the tournament, but in a one game scenario, any of that discussion is rendered useless.

Could anyone have seen this coming?

Looking for any hint in these numbers is a fool’s errand. By their very nature, No. 2 seeds have built their resume in a much bigger conference against much tougher competition while No. 15 seeds have wallowed in the muck of mid-major basketball. But comparing each of the teams in these games relative to other like seeds is the best bet.

Using data based on KenPom’s efficiency statistics, I constructed a percent above or below average to compare all seeds since 2002. Duke was a very poor No. 2 seed when it lost to C.J. McCollum and the best No. 15 seed in fifteen years, Lehigh, in 2012. Georgetown was well below average when it lost to an above average Dunk City squad in 2013. But the other two matchups are relatively improbable.

Michigan State was the fourth-ranked No. 2 seed out of 60 in the data set with a 7.5 percent above average profile while Middle Tennessee was the 24th-ranked No. 15 seed. This doesn’t exactly shout upset. But even crazier was the Missouri loss in which a strong No. 2 lost to one of the worst No. 15 seeds since 2002.

7:29 — The Spectrum of Officiating — Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck)

A quick officiating rant — we got to see multiple sides of the college officiating dynamic today. I thought the Cal-Hawaii game was called super tight — as evidenced by 25 collective fouls between the teams in the first half alone — and the Temple-Iowa game was brutally inconsistent. Iowa’s bigs were getting away with constant grabs and push-offs down low, creating lots of offensive rebound opportunities including the buzzer-beating basket in overtime. The NBA’s reffing is not always great shakes, but there tends to be an ebb and flow (and at least a bit of reasoning) behind their calls. Jumping from game to game today, the only constant seems to be chaos.

As a footnote to that — the way games are called can have a significant impact on how we view performances from different prospects. It’s not a catch all source of blame, but definitely not helpful for evaluation purposes.

4:34 pm — Cobwebs Gone — Jon Burr (@MasterJonBurr)

Grandmaster Editor Ian Levy is almost as deep into his cups as I am, so expect less updates from here on out, but I simply must comment on the fury that transpires around us. MTSU, led by the giddily-named Giddy Potts, is somehow STILL up by three on tourney -avorite Michigan State. Mssr. Potts, who leads the NCAA in three-point percentage, may be the most resplendently named NCAA hero since God Shammgod. Cal, despite having an ACTUAL NBA PROSPECT in Jaylen Brown, ended up with a double digit loss to Hawai’i. The refs really took control of that game in the first half, which led to a relentlessly sloppy second half, what with all the swallowed whistles and all. The aforementioned Rainbow Warrior Stefan Jankovic led the way with 16 points, 5 boards, and 7 Steve Novak flashbacks, as far as his NBA prospects are concerned. Before I return to the bracket busters laid before me, I implore you not to watch Iowa/Temple, as it’s about as irrelevant to this tourney as it is to the NBA.

4:13 — An Ugly Loss for Cal — Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck)

Hawaii almost exclusively played zone today, and it really seemed to bother Jaylen Brown. That’s sort of obvious when you turn the ball over seven times in 18 minutes, but he just never got anything going and eventually it looked like he was in his own head. Have to wonder if the craziness with the program this week had any impact on him and the team. He did the exact opposite of what you’d want to see out of a guy who hopes to be a high pick and took a really stupid foul 75 feet from his own basket on a poor reach to punctuate his day. You have to feel for the kid.

Ivan Rabb had the kind of day I’ve come to expect from him — relatively unassuming, but you look up and he has a double-double.  Not exactly a banner day, but given how disjointed the team looked without Wallace it’s a credit to him he was able to muster what he did. I thought he exploited the zone decently and showed off some really nice interior passing to set up Rooks for easy looks when Cal was making their comeback push in the second half. I firmly believe he’ll be a contributor at the next level.

3:33 pm — Cobwebs Gone — Jon Burr (@MasterJonBurr)

I keep misreading Gary Payton THE FIRST’s Oregon State shooting shirt as “GANGSTA” and it is bringing me such delight that I may be hallucinating right now. Kermit Davis’ MTSU squad isn’t really beating Sparty, right? This Oregon St./VCU game isn’t this good, is it? The real problem with trying to identify NBA talent during the games today is the complete dearth of NBA talent on display. It’s like trying to find water in the Mojave or a shooter on the Memphis Grizzlies’ roster. VCU and the Beavers are just trading blows at this point, and I can’t help but notice that VCU forward Mo Alie-Cox not only possesses an NBA level name, as well as an NBA level coiffure, harkening back to the likes of Jae Crowder and Kenneth Faried. Sparty is rumbling back as those befuddling NBA State Farm commercials continue to bombard our collective psyche. So many questions; so few answers. I need to wrap up this installment, as there are halftime bets to make in the Cal/Hawai’i game, and I need to decide just how much I don’t respect Cuonzo Martin.  See ya real soon.

3:30 — Worst-case Scenario for Jaylen Brown — Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck)

That first half was pretty much the worst-case scenario for Jaylen Brown. One of the big knocks against him from both eye-test and draft model evaluation is his bad assist to turnover ratio. Major red flag as it is, he racked up 5 turnovers in the first half. If you’re in the camp that thinks he needs to play with a pretty ball-dominant guard to have any sort of success at the pro level, this is Exhibit A, B and C with Tyrone Wallace on the shelf. Add on to that his three fouls that will leave him one lapse of judgment away from a quick hook in the second half, and his afternoon is nearly cooked. If he wants to lend further credence to the idea that he can leverage his physical tools into two-way success at the pro level, playing smart and just giving himself a chance to remain in the game is the first step.

3:20 — Gary Payton, Version 2.0 — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Gary Payton II has been carrying Oregon State and although his team trails, his jam-packed stat line has been terrific: 15 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals. Speaking of jams, he’s also doing this.

Proud papa.

2:45 — Shaking Out the Cobwebs — Jon Burr (@MasterJonBurr)

As expected, Dayton promptly closed up shop and let America think that Syracuse might actually be dangerous, which has to thrill bookies everywhere as gamblers prepare to take out a second mortgage on Syracuse +11.5. This is, of course, assuming that NBA prospect Denzel Valentine leads Sparty to victory over the truly lowly MTSU Blue Raiders. Cal and Hawaii trade blows on the big screen, as Missouri transfer Stefan Jankovic shows that not only is he a quick study in American geography (Hawaii > Mizzoo, natch) but also in Cuonzo Martin’s simplistic schemes, as he is helping them overcome Cal’s clear advantage in talent. I was about to talk about Cal’s NBA prospects, but Chuck and Ernie just did the Face Swap App on National television and now the only thing I can possibly type is “Oh, the humanity.”

2:30 — The Syracuse Track Record — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Syracuse University made a strong statement that they belonged in the tournament, beating the Dayton Flyers by 19 points. The Orange don’t have anyone on the Upside and Motor Big Board but several fringe prospects including Michael Gbinije, Tyler Roberson and Malachi Richardson. All three came up big in different ways today and the trio combined for 41 points, 29 rebounds, 8 assists and 5 steals. Richardson, in particular, turned heads with his performance.

Strong tournament performances have a tendency to catapult players up draft boards, often overstating their potential. However, that effect may simply balance out the general perception that Syracuse’s system makes prospects look better than they actually are. Twenty players from Syracuse have been drafted into the NBA since 1992. According to data provided by Nylon Calculus’ Jeff Feyerer, just four of those 20 players have had a per season Win Share average higher than the average for all other players taken at their draft slot. Averaged together, Syracuse players taken in the draft since 1992 have averaged about 1.7 fewer Win Shares per season than we would expect given their draft slot.

1:49 — A Potential Guy — Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)

Over the past 10 seasons, Villanova has produced a number of NBA guards including most notably Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry. This year, though, the Wildcats don’t have any prospects projected to go highly in the draft. No players on the Villanova roster are currently ranked on the Upside & Motor Big Board, but one player to keep an eye on is Josh Hart.

Hart is a 6-5 guard who plays a number of positions for a Villanova team that regularly rolls out lineups with four guards and his per-40 minute numbers are impressive for a player his size. Hart is averaging 19.7 points on a true shooting percentage above 60 percent and grabbing 8.8 rebounds. He’s a career 38.6 percent three-point shooter and based on Andrew Johnson’s formula, he projects to be a 35 percent three-point shooter in the NBA. Although his steal rate (2.0) and block rate (0.8) don’t suggest much, Hart is well-known defender who is tenacious on the ball and rotates well. If Hart can bring his three-point percentage up slightly in the league (something his improvements from sixth man to starter suggests is possible), he could be a solid 3-and-D shooting guard prospect going forward. At halftime against UNC-Asheville, Hart has 7 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists for the Wildcats.

1:40 — Weak Seeds — Jeff Feyerer (@JFey5)

Looking at KenPom‘s historical adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and efficiency margin numbers can lead to some interesting analysis, especially when applying it to the success of No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Strictly based on their seeding, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are expected to meet in the Elite Eight, but that rarely happens.

I looked at each No. 1 and No. 2 seed since 2002 and compared their adjusted efficiency numbers to each other to pinpoint teams that went into the tournament as weak but establishing limits for the Elite Eight, Final Four and National Championship. I identified those No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that qualified only for the Elite Eight OR showed no indicators at all as weak seeds.

Only one of the 36 No. 1 and No. 2 seeds identified as weak has made the Final Four (2003 Texas). That doesn’t bode well for the dreams of No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Xavier who tip off tonight. Xavier shows the traits of a No. 2 seed meeting the limits of an Elite Eight squad, but Oregon is one of the worst No. 1 seeds, not even meeting those same Elite Eight limits. Their second round game against Cincinnati or Saint Joseph’s could get interesting.

1:25 — Shaking Out the Cobwebs — Jon Burr (@MasterJonBurr)

I seem to have finally shaken the cobwebs out of my noggin after Fastbreak Breakfast’s quarterly-or-so sojourn to the mecca that is FedEx Forum, so what better way to recover than turning on MAS HOOPS, POR FAVOR. We have two televisions set up at my buddy Gramps’ house, with one sadly set to CBS via HD Antenna, and the other on the largest screen we can muster with the most trusted/sober guy in the room sitting, vigilant, with the remote.  In today’s age, a commercial during March Madness simply will not do. Unfortunately, the HD Antenna means lots of Charles Barkley, who is somehow even less intelligible when discussing amateur ball. He won’t stop saying that basketball isn’t brain surgery.

After muting the Round Mound of Bad Ultrasound Results, I see that Syracuse is up on the always disappointing Dayton at the half, and that Villanova is, unsurprisingly, up by eight on UNC-Asheville.  I don’t think we will see many NBA prospects coming out of UNC-A.  I can’t remember a proper prospect out of Syracuse since Carmelo Anthony, but I’m not shocked that they’re beating Dayton, as Dayton is basically my favorite team to bet against in all of college basketball. In the nine times I’ve wagered against Dayton this year, I’ve lost exactly once, when they beat Vandy at home, which is a little like beating the Nets at Barclays. To fully qualify this statement, one must realize that me winning eight of nine bets is akin Hollis Thompson suddenly making the First Team All-NBA Squad.  At center. I’ll be back in a while with some actual NBA-related analysis, once I’ve let a few bratwursts soak up some of last night’s St. Patty’s Swill.

11:50 — Kris Dunn Is As Cool As The Over Side Of The Pillow — Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens)

Kris Dunn was the reason Providence beat USC last night. The Friars’ leading scorer and probable top-3 NBA draft pick (currently fourth on the Upside and Motor Big Board) didn’t hit the game-winning shot. That honor went to Rodney Bullock, but without Dunn, that moment never happens. Providence trailed for most of the second half, barely keeping pace with the Trojans offensively. Dunn, however, remained calm and collected, even after a first half where he was a disappointing 1-4 from the field. Dunn went 3-4 from three in the second half, as Providence was able to thwart USC’s zone and man defenses with excellent ball movement to get their shooters open. All three of Dunn’s threes were huge, too: one at the beginning of the half to take a 44-43 lead, a run-quelling three with nine minutes left to cut USC’s largest lead of the half, 56-50, in half, and a huge onion-scented three with 1:27 left to tie the game at 68.

The most impressive part about Dunn’s second half was his confidence under pressure. Not only did Dunn hit those three shots from beyond the arc, he also played the final 13 minutes of the game with four fouls, and it did not change his demeanor whatsoever. Dunn was still very active defensively, and did not shy away from attacking with the ball late, even in a game that could potentially go to overtime. Dunn missed a potential game-winner with three seconds left, but that he had the confidence to take the shot with multiple USC defenders around him, with four fouls, when he had been stopped cold in the paint all game speaks to Dunn’s excellent scoring mentality. And it paid off, too — even though Dunn missed the shot, Bullock got an open look for the game-winner because USC’s defense gravitated too far towards Dunn and Ben Bentil. Dunn faced some adversity in the Friars’ first round game, and passed the test with flying colors. Now we’ll see if he can make a statement against UNC on Saturday, a team his squad has a great matchup advantage against.

11:30 — Zone Defense Projections — Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

In one of the biggest upsets yesterday, Yale knocked off Taurean Prince and his Baylor Bears. From a prospect perspective, it was a huge disappointment, preventing a second round matchup of Prince and Duke’s Brandon Ingram. Prince currently ranks 22nd on the Upside and Motor Big Board and watching an athletic duel on the wing between him and Ingram would have been fascinating.

How Prince projects as a defensive prospect is one of the biggest questions about him. He would seem to have incredibly physical tools and both his steal and block percentages are above 2.0 (both were above 3.0 last season). That kind of defensive versatility — players who generate steals and blocks at a high rate — generally equates to a rosy NBA future. However, Baylor plays a lot of zone which can distort a player’s defensive statistics. Layne Vashro, formerly of Nylon Calculus, has done work with NBA to NCAA comparisons focused on coaches. He published work on John Calipari and Mike Krzyzewski using this methodology. Although he didn’t get a chance to publish, he also found that almost every player who went from Syracuse and Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone to the NBA had a lower steal and block rate than we would have expected when they got to the NBA.

Prince didn’t do himself any favors on the eye-test yesterday — frequently back-cut for easy baskets against Yale and generally looking out of sorts giving up 18 points on 7-10 shooting to Justin Sears. Put that with concerns about the reliability of his strong defensive statistics and those questions about him as a defensive prospect will likely persist.

11:15 — Fred VanVleet Is Ready For His Closeup — Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)

Last night after Wichita State’s 65-55 win over Arizona, the Wildcats’ head coach Sean Miller offered insight into what he said to the Shockers’ Fred VanVleet after the game. “Please don’t let anybody tell you that you’re not going to play in the NBA,” Miller told VanVleet. That message is an interesting one given that the Wichita State point guard hasn’t been featured in many draft projections in large part because, at 6-1 with a 6-2 wingspan, he’s slightly undersized for the position in the NBA. VanVleet is also not a stellar athlete, although he possesses adequate quickness and an immeasurable amount of desire (He said he would have walked to Providence from Dayton if necessary to play in the NCAA Tournament.).

VanVleet is a fantastic operator of the pick-and-roll where he is capable of hitting a diving big man, finding an open shooter, or getting to the rim where he averages 4.8 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He is also a career 39.2 percent three-point shooter. While VanVleet is a solid offensive player, it was his defense that impressed Miller the most. “He dominates the ball. He forces your point guard to do things that he normally doesn’t do,” Miller said. VanVleet is the definition of a defender who gets in his man’s shirt. He aggressively pressures the perimeter with active hands and has shown himself to be effective at diving down to double the post. In all four years at Wichita State, VanVleet has had a steal rate of 3.4 percent or better.

As good as Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis is at controlling the pace of a game, VanVleet may be better and if he gets a shot in the NBA, he’ll have an opportunity to play with higher quality big men that will be better recipients in ball screen situations and better rim protectors which will allow him to gamble even more on the perimeter. In four years, VanVleet has only played with one NBA player (Cleanthony Early) alongside him. Don’t be surprised if the Rockford, Illinois native finds his way onto an NBA roster as a complimentary role player who prides himself on being a vicious defender.