NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for March 23
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
After last night’s slate of only four games, we return to a larger slate of twelve games with many favorable matchups including the marquee nationally televised matchup with the Clippers visiting the Warriors. As we continue to wind down this NBA season, I cannot urge reader’s enough to be diligent in monitoring the late breaking news prior to lineups locking as many elite players will be taking days off due to rest/injury opening up tremendous value across the board.
It seems like every day when I research the slate, I end up landing on the Timberwolves as a foundational component of my lineups and tonight is no different. Minnesota takes on Sacramento this evening, and is projected to score 11 points more than their season average with the highest projected pace increase. Targeting players against the Kings has been a profitable strategy all year as the Kings rank amongst the best DvP matchups for PG, SG, SF and PF during the season. One of the best parts of the Timberwolves is that every member of their starting five is locked into major minutes and they all sit at mid-level price points between $6-9K which give us incredible flexibility on these larger slates when constructing lineups.
PG – Ricky Rubio priced at $7,000 has hit 6x value in nearly half his matchups over the last 3 weeks and is always one of my favorite DFS targets as his ability to rack up non scoring stats gives him a relatively safe floor and very high ceiling. SG – Zach Lavine has been a popular target lately due to his expanded role, however digging into the numbers, he has not scored above 33 fantasy points in his last 10 games and at a price point of $6,100 he is not flashing the kind of upside needed to take down a big pay day. His price is reasonable and the matchup is strong so if Lavine fits into your lineup you can reasonably expect a safe performance for cash games but he may be worth fading in tournaments due to his lack of upside.
The best place to attack the Kings is at PF, and PF – Gorgui Dieng at $6,400 presents a similar safe floor to Lavine and he has delivered 5x value in half of his starts over the last 3 weeks. Lastly, keep an eye on the status of Demarcus Cousins as if he is not able to play tonight, C- Karl Anthony Towns should have a massive night as the Kings will have nobody to matchup with the impressive rookie.
One additional game to target tonight is Dallas and Portland which checks in at one of the highest point totals tonight and what Vegas predicts to be a close game. One of the best strategies in DFS is to take advantage of new opportunities and with the news that Chandler Parsons will be out for the remainder of the year, this opens up additional value for many of the Mavericks players. After back to back huge outings, we have seen Dirk Nowitzki’s price increase to $8,000. Considering that PF – Draymond Green is just $300 more and is going up against a team he dropped a triple double on last game we could see gamer’s opt to pay up for Green giving us a lower than expected ownership for Dirk.
Two additional players that stand out in this matchup are PG – Deron Williams and SG – Wesley Matthews. Deron put up 59.6 points just 3 days ago against this same Portland team and although I am never in favor of “chasing the points,” Portland has been one of the most favorable matchups on the year to opposing point guards and at just $6,000, Deron may get overlooked even though we can expect a slight uptick in his usage with Parsons out. Lastly, Wesley Matthews will be one of my favorite value plays of the night at $3,800 and frankly the reason is simple – when your head coach comes out and says we will “lean heavily” on you in the wake of an injury, I will roll with the narrative and utilize a player that has massive upside at a near minimum price.
Next: Colorado Rockies 2016 Fantasy Outlook
Best of luck tonight gamers!